1月1 4日开盘后的日股行情 由于传出日本首相高市早苗考虑解散众议院进行大选的消息，1月13日日本出现股市上涨、日元贬值、 债券下跌同时加剧的局面。日本股市历来存在"逢大选必涨"的经验法则。有分析称：市场对形成长期政 权的期待正在扩大…… 由于传出日本首相高市早苗考虑提前解散众议院的消息，1月13日的股票市场和金融市场出现股市上 涨、日元贬值、债券下跌同时加剧的局面。日经平均股指首次站上5万3000点大关，而日元对美元汇率 则下跌至约一年半以来的低位。长期利率也上升至约27年来的高水平（债券价格下跌）。 在债券市场和外汇市场上，对积极财政扩张可能加剧日本财政恶化的担忧进一步增强。1月13日，日元 对美元汇率一度跌至1美元兑159日元区间，刷新了2024年7月中旬大约一年半以来的日元贬值、美元升 值水平。日元对欧元汇率也跌至1欧元兑185日元区间，创下1999年单一货币欧元诞生以来的日元最低水 平。 未来，与财政支出相关的事件还将持续，例如：高市政权重视的增长战略、经济财政运营与改革基本方 针（"骨太方针"）的具体制定等。 三菱UFJ摩根士丹利证券的首席外汇策略师植野大作指出："包括日本政府债务规模庞大、通胀等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic calculations behind the U.S. pressure on China, highlighting that the U.S. is pushing for conflict as a last resort to curb China's rise, which has been catalyzed by previous U.S. actions [5][15][42]. Group 1: China's Industrial Strength - China's industrial capabilities have seen explosive growth, with annual shipbuilding tonnage surpassing that of the U.S., Japan, and South Korea combined, and crude steel production accounting for over half of the global total [1][19]. - China possesses the most complete industrial system globally, with the ability to produce everything from screws to space stations, making U.S. tariffs ineffective [7]. - The annual crude steel production exceeds 1 billion tons, providing a solid foundation for military potential [21]. Group 2: U.S. Strategic Concerns - The U.S. is experiencing industrial hollowing and high debt, leading to strategic anxiety about losing its global hegemony as China's development continues [3][33]. - The U.S. has attempted various methods to suppress China's growth, including trade wars and technology restrictions, but these have only strengthened China's position [10][37]. - The U.S. is facing significant economic challenges, including a national debt exceeding $38 trillion, with annual interest payments nearing $1.1 trillion [39]. Group 3: The Nature of Conflict - The article argues that the U.S. is trying to provoke China into conflict to disrupt its development and isolate it internationally [17][25]. - China's decision to avoid conflict is framed as a rational choice based on its current strength and the understanding that true power does not require military action [19][42]. - Historical examples illustrate that wars are often fought out of desperation rather than strength, emphasizing that China is not in a position of crisis that necessitates war [27][31]. Group 4: Long-term Strategies - China is focusing on long-term strategies to enhance its global position, such as the Belt and Road Initiative and strengthening energy cooperation with Russia [35]. - The article suggests that as time progresses, the gap between China and the U.S. will continue to narrow, with China's manufacturing scale expected to surpass that of the entire West in the coming decades [41]. - The emphasis is placed on the idea that true victory comes from strategic patience and development rather than military confrontation [43].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China COSCO Shipping Holdings (中远海控) has signed contracts for the construction of twelve 18,000 TEU LNG dual-fuel container ships with Jiangnan Shipyard and China Shipbuilding Trading [1] - Each ship has a contract price of RMB 1.399 billion, leading to a total transaction value of RMB 16.788 billion for all twelve vessels [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) subsidiary China Shipbuilding Defense Equipment Co., Ltd. (stock code: 600685) has announced a significant increase in expected net profit for 2025, projecting a rise of 149.61% to 196.88% year-on-year [3][6]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 940 million yuan and 1.12 billion yuan for 2025 [3][6]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be between 850 million yuan and 1.02 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 153.27% to 203.93% [3][6]. Growth Drivers - The growth in performance is attributed to two main drivers: 1. Steady improvement in ship product revenue and production efficiency, leading to enhanced gross margins [3][6]. 2. Significant improvement in the operating performance of joint ventures, with increased dividend income from associated companies contributing to a substantial rise in investment income [3][6]. Company Background - China Shipbuilding Defense Equipment Co., Ltd. is a major shipbuilding enterprise under the China Shipbuilding Group, listed in both Shanghai and Hong Kong since 1993, and is the first A+H share listed shipbuilding company in China [4][7]. - The company has integrated high-quality shipbuilding assets in South China through acquisitions in 2014 and 2015, becoming a comprehensive marine and defense equipment enterprise encompassing four major categories: marine defense equipment, marine transportation equipment, marine development equipment, and marine scientific research equipment [4][7].

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 2026 年 01 月 13 日 油运 Q4Q1 业绩有望高增，航空有 望迎来黄金时代 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 看好 ——交运行业 2025Q4 业绩前瞻 本期投资提示 ...

Group 1: Electric Vehicles and International Standards - The Ministry of Commerce of China reported progress in negotiations regarding the EU's electric vehicle case, emphasizing the need for general guidance on price commitments for Chinese exporters of pure electric vehicles to the EU, ensuring compliance with WTO rules [2] - An international standard for sliding bearings, led by China and involving experts from seven countries, has been officially published, which is crucial for the reliability and efficiency of high-end equipment such as heavy machinery and precision machine tools [2] Group 2: National Standards and LNG Shipping - The State Administration for Market Regulation of China released 160 national standard samples across various sectors, focusing on key strategic materials like steel and non-ferrous metals, which will enhance product quality and technological advancement [3] - The "Tianshan" LNG carrier, featuring the latest dual-fuel low-speed propulsion system, is set to be delivered, with a capacity of 174,000 cubic meters, highlighting advancements in LNG transportation technology [3] Group 3: Hydrogen Energy and Advanced Manufacturing - Zhejiang Province is advancing hydrogen energy technologies across all stages, including production, storage, transportation, and utilization, aiming to develop new hydrogen production technologies and related equipment [4] - Shanghai's government is promoting the development of new-generation electronic information, smart connected vehicles, and green low-carbon industries, supporting enterprises in advanced manufacturing and emerging fields [4] Group 4: Corporate Developments - China Huadian Group's Xiong'an Energy Company has increased its registered capital from 100 million to 1.1 billion yuan, indicating significant growth and investment in the energy sector [7]

Core Viewpoint - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) subsidiary, China Shipbuilding Ocean and Defense Equipment Co., Ltd. (referred to as "China Shipbuilding Defense"), expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, driven by improved product revenue and operational efficiency, as well as better performance from joint ventures and increased investment income [3][8]. Financial Performance - China Shipbuilding Defense anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 940 million yuan and 1.12 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 149.61% to 196.88% [3][8]. - The company's net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be between 850 million yuan and 1.02 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 153.27% to 203.93% [3][8]. Growth Drivers - The growth in performance is attributed to two main drivers: 1. Steady improvement in ship product revenue and production efficiency, leading to better gross margins [3][8]. 2. Significant improvement in the performance of joint ventures, with increased dividend income from associated companies contributing to a substantial rise in investment income [3][8]. Company Background - China Shipbuilding Defense is a major shipbuilding enterprise under the China Shipbuilding Group, originally established as Guangzhou Shipyard International Co., Ltd. It operates two main shipyards: Guangzhou Shipyard International and Huangpu Wenchong [3][8]. - The company was listed in both Shanghai and Hong Kong in 1993, becoming the first shipbuilding enterprise in China to achieve A+H share listing [3][8]. - In 2014 and 2015, China Shipbuilding Defense acquired two shipbuilding companies, completing the integration of high-quality shipbuilding assets in South China and enabling the listing of core domestic assets [3][8]. Technological Capabilities - The company possesses 11 provincial and national-level technology innovation platforms, including a national enterprise technology center and a post-doctoral research station, making it one of the most capable ship product development and design centers in South China [4][9]. - It is recognized as the first military-civilian integrated technology innovation demonstration base in Guangdong Province, holding core technologies and intellectual property rights in high-tech, high-value-added products such as feeder container ships, public service vessels, research vessels, and wind power installation platforms [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - The optimization of the business environment has become a key focus for various regions at the beginning of the new year, with multiple provinces like Liaoning, Fujian, and Shanghai holding special conferences to set new tasks and goals for the year [1]. Group 1: Liaoning's Initiatives - Liaoning Province has released an "Action Plan for Optimizing the Business Environment," outlining 34 key tasks aimed at improving policy systems and enhancing government services [2][26]. - The city of Shenyang has introduced a new "one-stop service" model, consolidating multiple administrative processes into single transactions, significantly improving efficiency [4][5]. - Shenyang aims to achieve 90% of its administrative tasks under the "no need to run" policy by the end of the year, with over 2,500 tasks already implemented [5]. Group 2: Impact on Enterprises - The improvements in the business environment have led to increased activity in local industries, such as a private shipyard in Dalian, which has set a global record by launching four 300,000-ton super oil tankers simultaneously [8]. - The chairman of Hengli Group reported that the company has over 100 ships under construction and has secured orders until 2030, indicating strong market confidence [10]. Group 3: Regulatory Changes - Various cities in Liaoning are implementing a "scan to enter the enterprise" initiative, allowing for pre-scheduled inspections that reduce disruptions to business operations [14][17]. - The integration of enforcement actions across departments aims to minimize the frequency of inspections, thereby reducing the burden on enterprises [15][20]. Group 4: Goals for the Future - Liaoning aims to establish itself as a "best reputation province" for its business environment, with specific tasks focused on fairness, service quality, cost reduction, legal clarity, and stabilizing expectations [20][26]. - The provincial government has set clear timelines and responsibilities for the implementation of 173 and 118 specific tasks to address business challenges [24][26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the bustling activity in the shipbuilding industry in Taizhou, Jiangsu Province, as multiple shipbuilding enterprises rapidly resume production to fulfill orders at the beginning of the new year [3]. Group 2 - Several shipbuilding companies in Taizhou are working at full capacity to achieve a strong start to the year, aiming for a successful "opening red" [3].

TOP创新区研究院 . 创新区研究，就在TOP研究院。TOP研究院专注于全球创新区的一体化研究，从Talent(个人), Organization(组织), Place(区域)三大维度出发，通过"研究/连接/分享"，探索中国创新区的实践路径。 生产效率大PK。 来源 / TOP创新区研究院 （ID：TOP_Lab） 为什么几乎所有东西都是"中国制造"？ 以下文章来源于TOP创新区研究院 ，作者趋势研究组 很多人会脱口而出："因为中国的人工便宜呗！" 这话在2 0年前或许没错。但今天，中国制造业产出约占全球总量的3 0 %，遥遥领先于美 国约1 6 %的份额。如果你还单纯认为是人力成本的原因，那就不对了。 最 近 ， 一 位 经 济 学 家 单 伟 建 (We i j i a n S h a n ) 做 了 一 件 很 有 意 思 的 事 ： 他 找 来 了 特 斯 拉 ——这个在美国和中国都有着几乎一模一样"超级工厂"的公司，进行了一次硬核的生产 效率大PK。 结果，令人震惊。 特斯拉的"双城记" 特斯拉的上海工厂和加州弗里蒙特工厂，可以说是"兄弟"工厂。它们使用相同的技术、 相 同 的 生 产 线 ， 制 ...