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环球市场动态:人民币汇率短期或延续低波状态
citic securities· 2025-06-27 05:21
Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22% to 3,448 points, while trading volume remained high at 1.62 trillion yuan[13] - U.S. stock markets saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 0.94% to 43,386.8 points, and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.80% to 6,141 points, driven by optimism over potential interest rate cuts[8] - European markets generally rose, with the Stoxx 600 index up 0.09%, supported by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[8] Currency and Commodities - The U.S. dollar index fell for five consecutive days, closing down 0.5% at 97.15, marking a three-year low, influenced by strong economic data suggesting at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year[26] - International gold prices saw a slight increase, rising 0.2% to $3,333.5 per ounce, as traders weighed Middle Eastern tensions against the Fed's rate cut outlook[26] - Oil prices remained stable, with WTI crude oil up 0.49% to $65.24 per barrel, amid assessments of Iranian oil supply risks[26] Fixed Income - Weak economic data led to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield down 4.9 basis points to 4.24%[30] - The Asian bond market showed mixed sentiment, with Chinese investment-grade bonds experiencing active two-way trading and spreads widening by 1-2 basis points[30] Key Developments - The Chinese yuan has shown resilience, maintaining a "low volatility + resilience" characteristic, attributed to a weakening dollar index and domestic policy support[5] - The U.S. revised its Q1 GDP down to a contraction of 0.5%, exceeding the previous estimate of -0.2%, indicating the first economic shrinkage in three years[8] - The Hong Kong stock market faced pressure, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.61%, influenced by tight liquidity conditions[10]