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地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告:南京市
Lian He Zi Xin· 2025-11-26 11:26
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Nanjing, an important central city in eastern China, has obvious regional advantages, convenient transportation, a high - level of urbanization, a reasonable industrial structure, and clear industrial planning. In 2024, its economic aggregate and general public budget revenue ranked second in Jiangsu Province. The general public budget revenue has good quality and strong fiscal self - sufficiency, while government - funded revenue decreased year - on - year. The government debt burden is at a medium level among prefecture - level cities in Jiangsu [4]. - Among Nanjing's districts, Jiangning District has the strongest overall economic strength, and core areas such as Jianye and Xuanwu Districts have prominent per - capita GDP levels. There are differences in fiscal strength among districts. Affected by the real - estate market adjustment, the government - funded revenues of Jiangning, Lishui, and Liuhe Districts are under significant pressure. Most areas have a relatively heavy overall debt burden [4]. - Nanjing has a large number of existing bond - issuing urban investment enterprises, with the main body ratings being AA and AA+. In 2024, the net financing of urban investment bonds turned from net inflow to net outflow. In the first three quarters of 2025, the net financing continued to show a large - scale net outflow. The debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises continued to grow, and some district - level platforms have heavy debt burdens and weak short - term solvency indicators [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Nanjing's Economic and Fiscal Strength (1) Regional Characteristics and Economic Development in Nanjing - Regional advantages and transportation: Nanjing is the capital of Jiangsu Province, with obvious regional advantages and a well - developed transportation network including railways, highways, waterways, and aviation. In 2024, it opened new international train lines, and its subway, airport, and port all had good development [5][7]. - Urbanization level: By the end of 2024, Nanjing's permanent population was 9.577 million, ranking second in Jiangsu, with an urbanization rate of 87.3%, higher than the provincial average [6]. - Economic aggregate: In 2024, Nanjing's GDP was 1.850081 trillion yuan, ranking second in Jiangsu, with a growth rate of 4.5%. In the first half of 2025, it was 917.918 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3% [8]. - Industrial structure: Nanjing has a reasonable industrial structure and a clear "2 + 6+6" industrial plan. In 2024, investment in advanced manufacturing and related product output increased [9]. - Policies and support: Since 2024, Nanjing has introduced various economic guidance policies and received support from the superior government in terms of fiscal transfer payments [12]. (2) Nanjing's Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - Fiscal revenue: In 2024, Nanjing's general public budget revenue ranked second in Jiangsu, with good quality and strong fiscal self - sufficiency. Government - funded revenue decreased year - on - year, and superior subsidies contributed to the comprehensive fiscal resources [14]. - Debt burden: By the end of 2024, Nanjing's local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio ranked eighth among prefecture - level cities in Jiangsu, at a medium level [16]. II. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Nanjing's Districts (Counties, Cities) (1) Economic Strength of Nanjing's Districts - Regional planning: Nanjing will build a spatial structure of "rural areas in the north and south, a metropolis in the middle, development along the Yangtze River, and urban - rural integration" [18]. - Industrial development: Each district forms characteristic industrial clusters based on its own resource endowments, such as integrated circuits and biomedicine in Jiangbei New Area, and advanced manufacturing in Jiangning District [21]. - Economic development: In 2024, there were significant differences in the economic aggregates of Nanjing's districts. The economic growth rates of 11 districts were relatively balanced, and there were large differences in per - capita GDP levels [22]. (2) Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Each District - Fiscal revenue: In 2024, there were differences in fiscal strength among districts. Most areas had stable general public budget revenues. Tax revenues accounted for a high proportion, and the government - funded revenues of Jiangning, Lishui, and Liuhe Districts were under pressure. The comprehensive fiscal resources of Jiangning and Jiangbei New Areas were in the first echelon [28][34]. - Debt situation: Except for Jianye District, the government debt balances of other districts increased. Most areas had a relatively heavy overall debt burden, with Jiangning District having the largest debt scale and Gaochun District having the heaviest debt burden [36]. - Debt management: Nanjing and its districts have strengthened debt monitoring and management, and each district has formulated differentiated debt management plans [39][41]. III. Debt - Repayment Ability of Nanjing's Urban Investment Enterprises (1) Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of September 30, 2025, there were 67 urban investment enterprises with existing bonds in Nanjing. The main body ratings were mainly AA and AA+. Since 2024, the ratings of 2 urban investment enterprises have been upgraded [44][45]. (2) Bond - Issuing Situation of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the bond - issuing scale of Nanjing's urban investment enterprises increased slightly year - on - year, and the net financing of urban investment bonds turned from net inflow to net outflow. In the first three quarters of 2025, the net financing continued to show a large - scale net outflow [46]. (3) Analysis of Debt - Repayment Ability - As of the end of 2024, the debt scale of Nanjing's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises continued to grow, concentrated in the city - level, Jiangning, and Jiangbei New Areas. Some district - level platforms had heavy debt burdens and weak short - term solvency indicators. In 2024 and the first half of 2025, the financing efforts of urban investment enterprises increased [51][59]. (4) Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue for the Debt of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - The ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to "comprehensive fiscal resources" in Nanjing's districts ranges from 1321.72% to 127.20%, showing serious differentiation [61].