7月涨价预期

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【期货热点追踪】集运欧线录得四连跌!部分航司跟随马士基下调运价,下行周期或已开启?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-06-24 12:02
Group 1: Market Trends - The main contract for container shipping on the European route opened lower and fell to a low of 1750.0 points, marking the lowest level since May 16, with a closing price of 1772.0 points, down 7% for the fourth consecutive trading day [1] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (Europe route) reported 1937.14 points, an increase of 14.1% compared to the previous period, indicating support for near-term prices [1] - The SCFIS index for the US route saw a significant decline of 28.4%, which may negatively impact overall market sentiment [1] Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - Shipping companies have begun issuing price increase notices for July, showing a high increase compared to June's price levels, but Maersk's price reduction to $3100 for major European ports has led to other companies following suit [1] - The average price for European routes has narrowed to approximately $3300 per container, indicating a need for ongoing monitoring of price adjustments by shipping companies [1] - Analysts expect that the price increases for July may not be as optimistic due to the actual implementation levels and Maersk's price adjustments, leading to a potential further convergence of prices in early July [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Institutions predict that the price trend may initially face downward pressure before gradually recovering, with market sentiment remaining weak due to expectations of price peaks [3] - The overall price is expected to remain volatile, influenced by the weak expectations for July price increases and ongoing developments in the geopolitical situation [4] - The supply-demand dynamics, including port congestion and the potential for increased capacity in the North American routes, contribute to the uncertainty in European route pricing [2][3]