A股市场增长
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申万宏源傅静涛:业绩改善确定性增强,中游制造或率先走出通缩
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-16 08:31
Core Viewpoint - The current market shows skepticism regarding the macroeconomic improvement and the next phase of China's economic growth drivers, with a cautious attitude prevailing among most analysts [3][9]. Group 1: Market Trends - Two significant trends are identified: first, the improvement in listed companies' performance is more certain than the overall economic improvement; second, the core logic driving advanced manufacturing development is that the supply clearance in the midstream manufacturing sector has reached historical highs [3][9]. - By 2026, the midstream manufacturing sector is expected to emerge from the deflationary cycle, with marginal improvements in this area being more certain than in upstream cyclical industries [3][9]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investment strategies focusing on midstream manufacturing are projected to have higher certainty compared to traditional cyclical products like steel and coal [3][9]. - A forecast suggests that the A-share market may experience two significant milestones in 2026: an effective upward marginal improvement in overall profitability and the potential for double-digit positive growth in the market [3][9][10]. - The past five years have not seen double-digit growth, but the improvement in the fundamental cycle is expected to significantly expand the range of investment opportunities, the number of targets, and the investment success rate for investors in 2026 [4][10].