通稿提出，"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调 节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。要继续实施适度宽松的货币政 策。" 专题：中央经济工作会议在北京举行 业内解读 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：一瑜中的 文：华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 报告正文 一、对外部形势判断或较为积极 通稿指出，"外部环境变化影响加深"，对比去年12月的"当前外部环境变化带来的不利影响加深"、今年 4月的"外部冲击影响加大"，本次通稿并未强调外需的不利影响。从今年出口数据来看，1-11月，出口 保持了5.4%的增长，成为唯一一个通过反制"对等关税"赢得主动权的国家。展望明年，我们认为双重韧 性的支撑下（份额韧性+外需韧性），出口或继续保持高景气。 二、逆周期政策或从超常规转向常规 我们认为这一表述与7月政治局会议的表述相类似，"要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，充分释放政策效应"即，更强调存量政策发挥效果，而非继续强调使用增量超常规政策。 我们 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告正文 一、 对外部形势判断或较为积极 通稿指出，"外部环境变化影响加深"，对比去年 12 月的"当前外部环境变化带来的不利影响加深"、今年 4 月的"外部冲击影响加大"，本次通稿并未强调外需的不利影响 。从 今年出口数据来看， 1-11 月，出口保持了 5.4% 的增长，成为唯一一个通过反制"对等关税"赢得主动权的国家。 展望明年，我们认为双重韧性的支撑下（份额韧性 + 外需韧 性），出口或继续保持高景气。 二、逆周期政策或从超常规转向常规 通稿提出，"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效， 发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应 ， 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度， 提升宏观经济治理效能。要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。要 继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。" 我们认为这一表述与 7 月政治局会议的表述相类似 ，"要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应"即，更强调存量政策发挥效果，而非继续强 调使用增量超常规政策。 我们理解，今年整体而言，政策属于超常规范畴，在此影响下 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the current economic environment characterized by a policy-intensive period and an upcoming data vacuum period, which is expected to lead to increased market activity [1][10] - The policy-intensive phase will begin in December with key meetings, including the Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, followed by various ministerial meetings [1][10] - The data vacuum period in January and February will lack significant economic data, which historically leads to market volatility and increased activity [1][10] Group 2 - The analysis identifies three macroeconomic divergences: the divergence between export price index and domestic PPI, the contrasting performance of exports and real estate, and the stock market's reliance on valuation rather than earnings growth [2][11] - The core judgment is that the most certain economic growth is likely to be found in the midstream manufacturing sector over the next 3-6 months, supported by four new changes in this sector [3][12] - Midstream manufacturing has seen a reversal in profit dynamics, with overseas gross margins now significantly higher than domestic margins, indicating a shift in profit cycles [3][12] Group 3 - The stability of export demand is a key support for midstream manufacturing, with expectations of a continued rise in global industrial production over the next six months [6][15] - Key categories within high-tech and mechanical exports, such as information technology products, ships, and automobiles, are showing stable demand, further supporting the outlook for midstream manufacturing [6][15] - The current cycle is unique, as midstream manufacturing can rely on overseas markets for profit recovery, with expectations that prices in this sector may rebound sooner than the overall PPI [7][16]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current economic landscape, highlighting a "policy intensive period" followed by a "data vacuum period" in the upcoming months [2][3] - The first phase involves a series of important policy meetings starting in December, including the Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, which will accelerate policy implementation [2] - The second phase will see a lack of key economic data, leading to increased market activity but uncertainty about the economic outlook [3] Group 2 - The article identifies three major macroeconomic divergences: the divergence between export price index and domestic PPI, the contrasting performance of exports and real estate, and the stock market's reliance on valuation rather than earnings growth [4] - The core judgment is that the most certain economic recovery is likely to occur in the midstream manufacturing sector over the next 3-6 months, supported by four key changes in this sector [5] Group 3 - The four changes in midstream manufacturing include: a recovery in ROE for midstream manufacturers, overseas gross margins surpassing domestic margins, a significant proportion of overseas gross margins in midstream manufacturing, and the ongoing technological wave benefiting certain sectors [5][11] - The stability of midstream manufacturing is supported by two main factors: the stability of export demand and the robust performance of key product categories such as high-tech machinery and electronics [11][12] - The article concludes that the current cycle is unique, with midstream manufacturing potentially benefiting from overseas markets, leading to an independent recovery in profits and prices [12]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the US is experiencing further short-term credit easing, but long-term resistance is expected to increase [2][3] - The driving force behind China's price recovery is strengthening, with greater momentum for RMB appreciation as US credit easing continues [3][8] - If the US maintains its credit easing, it may lead to increased inflationary pressures overseas, favoring large-cap value stocks in the Chinese market [3][8] Group 2 - The report highlights a significant decline in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping by 5.23% in November [11] - The industrial profits in China showed a year-on-year decline of 5.5% in October, down 27.1 percentage points from September, indicating a challenging economic environment [8] - The report notes that while most sectors declined, consumer sectors showed resilience, with specific industries like fisheries and steel raw materials outperforming [28][32]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current phase of the A-share market, analyzing it through the lens of the classic bull market three-stage theory, and emphasizes the importance of balancing offensive and defensive strategies in investment as the market transitions from valuation recovery to performance-driven growth [4][6][25]. Group 1: Bull Market Phases - The bull market is divided into three stages: valuation recovery, performance-driven growth, and emotional-driven bubble [6][7]. - The first stage, characterized by policy shifts and risk appetite recovery, has been completed as of October 2024, with the market returning to historical valuation levels [7][9]. - The second stage, currently in progress, focuses on performance verification, with A-share companies' profits growing by 5.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, and significant growth in sectors like TMT and manufacturing [9][10]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The TMT sector showed strong performance, with electronic profits up 45.3% year-on-year, and AI-related indices seeing profits increase by 83.3% [10]. - The midstream manufacturing sector also performed well, with profits in the power equipment and new energy sectors growing by 52.5% [10]. - The energy and materials sector benefited from policy changes, with industrial metals and precious metals seeing profit increases of 45.2% and 58.7%, respectively [10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategy - The current market dynamics suggest a need for a balanced strategy, moving from an aggressive "only attack" approach to a more defensive "balance attack and defense" strategy [18][25]. - A suggested allocation strategy includes maintaining a 50% equity position, diversifying across growth, stable, high-dividend, and cyclical sectors to mitigate risks [19][20]. - The article warns that if the market enters the third phase characterized by bubble-like valuations and extreme market sentiment, a shift to a defensive strategy will be necessary [22][23]. Group 4: Long-term Considerations - The article highlights the importance of sustainable performance growth, questioning whether the current high growth in tech stocks can be maintained amid macroeconomic challenges [13][14]. - It draws parallels with the U.S. market's slow bull experience, emphasizing the need for solid earnings support for a sustainable bull market [14]. - The article concludes that for the A-share market to transition into a long-term bull market, several factors, including macroeconomic stability and improved corporate governance, must be addressed [16][25].

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector has experienced significant fluctuations in 2023, with the ChiNext Index showing a maximum increase of 90% from April 7 to October 30, but has faced a pullback of nearly 8% since November, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][4]. Market Performance - The ChiNext Index has retraced 6.4% in November, with various indices such as the ChiNext 50 and ChiNext 300 experiencing declines of 7.6% and 5.32% respectively [4][5]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the ChiNext Index, particularly in the computing power sector, have seen significant declines, with stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Shenghong Technology dropping 10.09% and 16.31% respectively [5]. Fund Management Insights - Fund reports indicate that TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) holdings reached a historical high of nearly 40%, leading to a shift in investment strategies as funds move towards lower valuation sectors [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the recent adjustments in the computing power sector are due to prior rapid increases and a strategic shift in capital allocation [5]. AI Market Developments - Alibaba's announcement of its "Qianwen" project to enter the AI to C market has sparked renewed interest in AI applications, leading to notable stock price increases in related companies [6]. - Despite volatility in the computing power sector, brokerages maintain an optimistic outlook, citing strong ongoing demand driven by AI [6]. Earnings Performance - In Q3 2025, companies listed on the ChiNext continued to show strong performance, with over 70% achieving profitability and more than 50% reporting net profit growth [8]. - The computing power sector, particularly the "Yizhongtian" portfolio, reported a net profit of 14.924 billion yuan, a 134% increase year-on-year [8]. Market Outlook - Short-term market expectations suggest a return to endogenous drivers, with a stable earnings outlook despite recent macroeconomic weaknesses [9]. - The market is anticipated to enter a phase of consolidation and potential upward movement, pending new catalysts towards the end of the year [9].

Group 1 - The technology sector has seen significant growth this year, with the ChiNext Index reaching a maximum increase of 90% from April 7 to October 30 [2] - However, since November, the momentum that previously drove the ChiNext Index has weakened, with a maximum drawdown of nearly 8% as of November 17 [2][3] - Major stocks in the ChiNext Index, such as Ningde Times, have experienced declines, with Ningde Times opening down nearly 4% and closing down 4.13% due to a significant shareholder's plan to sell shares [2] Group 2 - The ChiNext Index has retraced 6.4% since November, with various indices within the "Chuang" series also showing declines, such as the ChiNext 50 down 7.6% and the ChiNext 300 down 5.32% [3] - The computing power sector has seen notable declines, with stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang down 10.09% and Shenghong Technology down 16.31% this month [3] - Market sentiment suggests that the recent adjustments in the computing power sector are due to previous rapid increases and a shift in funds towards "high cut low" strategies [3] Group 3 - Fund reports indicate that TMT holdings reached nearly 40%, a historical high, with trading volumes also at elevated levels, prompting a shift in market focus from technology growth to dividend and cyclical sectors [4] - Following Alibaba's announcement of its "Qianwen" project, there has been a surge in AI-related stocks, with companies like Xuanyuan International and Dongfang Guoxin seeing significant price increases [4] - Analysts remain optimistic about the computing power sector, citing strong demand driven by AI, and view recent adjustments as potential buying opportunities [4] Group 4 - By Q3 2025, companies listed on the ChiNext continued to show strong performance, with over 70% achieving profitability and over 50% reporting profit growth [5] - The computing power sector, particularly within the electronic communication industry, has experienced substantial profit growth, with the "Yizhongtian" portfolio's net profit reaching 14.924 billion yuan, 2.34 times that of the previous year [5] - Market expectations suggest a return to endogenous drivers in the short term, with a narrow range of fluctuations anticipated as the market awaits new catalysts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector has experienced significant fluctuations, with the ChiNext Index showing a maximum drawdown of nearly 8% since November, despite a strong performance earlier in the year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext Index has seen a drawdown of 6.4% in November, with various indices such as the ChiNext 50 and ChiNext 300 experiencing declines of 7.6% and 5.32% respectively [2]. - Major stocks in the computing power sector have faced substantial declines, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Shenghong Technology dropping 10.09% and 16.31% respectively [2]. - The computing power sector has accumulated significant gains prior to the recent adjustments, leading to a shift in market strategy towards "buying low" [2]. Group 2: Fund Holdings and Market Sentiment - TMT sector holdings in funds reached a historical high of nearly 40%, indicating a peak in trading activity and stock prices [3]. - Following Alibaba's announcement of its "Qianwen" project, there has been a resurgence in AI-related stocks, with companies like Xuanyuan International and Dongfang Guoxin seeing gains of over 13% [3]. - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on the computing power sector, suggesting that the current adjustments present investment opportunities due to sustained demand driven by AI [3]. Group 3: Earnings and Future Outlook - By Q3 2025, companies listed on the ChiNext continued to show strong revenue and profit growth, with over 70% achieving profitability [4]. - The computing power sector, particularly the "Yizhongtian" combination, reported a net profit of 14.924 billion, a 2.34 times increase from the previous year [4]. - The market is expected to experience a period of consolidation, with potential upward movements contingent on future catalysts [5].

Core Conclusions - The bull market is entering its second phase, transitioning from a "technology bull" to a "wealth bull" [1] - After the "super macro month" in October, the market is expected to favor cyclical stocks as a better allocation choice due to high valuations and potential adjustments if EPS does not improve [1][5] - Current market conditions present an optimal window for investing in cyclical stocks, supported by five key reasons [1] Reason 1: Cyclical Stocks as "Friends of Time" - Since Q3, the market has begun to trade based on changes in profitability (△ROE), indicating a return to investment in economic recovery [21] - Cyclical stocks have lagged behind in price compared to improvements in fundamentals, making them more favorable during market adjustments [21][24] Reason 2: Potential Requirements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests that by 2035, per capita GDP should reach the level of moderately developed countries, requiring an annual growth rate of 4.1% plus inflation and currency appreciation [2][30] - Achieving this goal necessitates a combination of moderate inflation and currency appreciation to establish a growth baseline for cyclical industries [2][31] Reason 3: Cross-Border Capital Inflow, Repeating 2019-2021 - Recent reports emphasize that cross-border capital inflow will effectively support domestic demand, with signs of cyclical improvement already emerging [3][33] - The return of cross-border capital is expected to drive a revaluation of global commodities and domestic manufacturing, similar to the core asset bull market seen post-pandemic [3][36] Reason 4: New Regulations for Public Funds Guiding "Rebalancing" - The introduction of new regulations for public funds is expected to lead to a rebalancing of holdings between TMT and cyclical stocks [4][39] - As public funds have not significantly increased new issuances, the shift from cyclical to TMT stocks has resulted in a decrease in the pricing power of TMT stocks [4][40] Reason 5: Slowdown in Incremental Capital Inflows, Entering a Competitive Phase - Since September, there has been a noticeable slowdown in the inflow of various types of capital, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][44] - The market is transitioning into a phase of competition, with cyclical stocks likely to benefit from this change [5][51] Investment Recommendations: Transitioning from "Technology Bull" to "Wealth Bull" - The report suggests continuing to invest in cyclical stocks, particularly in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing, as these areas are expected to benefit from the current economic conditions [5][54]