节前最后一个交易日，大盘指数震荡调整，波澜不惊，科创50指数跌幅比较明显。盘面上看，多数个股下跌，跌停12家，人气比较低迷。节后，大盘指数 怎么走？ 一、大盘指数分析 中午，重点分析了上证50指数和创业板指数，接下来重点分析上证指数和科创50指数。 科创50指数， 日线级别的走势来看，今天高开低走，走势比较弱，收出了实体占据优势的阴线。看起来比较弱势，但是目前三条中短期均线处在多头排 列状态，六十日均线接近走平，四条均线处在粘合状态，科创50指数受到的支撑力度比较强。周期面来看，今天是本段上涨的第八个有效周期，节后首个 交易日就是第九个有效周期，是变盘节点。因此，节后第一个交易日，股价有望继续上涨。 六十分钟级别的走势来看，走出了五连阴，到今天收盘为止，走到了第三个有效的调整周期，节后前两个小时，就是第四个有效周期和第五个有效周期， 到了变盘节点，支撑该指数企稳回升。 不荐股，只客观记录本人的分析，不作为买卖依据！ 上证指数，日线级别的走势来看，最近一段走势，走出了11连阳，比较罕见。走出了明显的上涨幅度，但是成交量始终没有有效放大，量能处在萎缩状 态，量价背离。昨天，是本段上涨的第十个有效周期，是变盘节点， ...

Market Index Analysis - The major A-share indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen adjusted on Monday, aligning with weekend analysis expectations, indicating low market sentiment with most stocks declining [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high last Friday but quickly retreated, forming an adjustment-type candlestick, signaling a clear adjustment phase [1] - The index is currently in an adjustment cycle, with short-term support observed at the 20-day moving average, but overall, the market is expected to remain in a correction phase [1] Specific Index Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has undergone seven adjustment cycles in the last hour of trading, with the first hour of the afternoon session acting as a turning point, leading to a slight recovery [1] - The ChiNext Index has also completed five effective adjustment cycles, with today's candlestick indicating a stabilization signal, suggesting a potential rebound on Tuesday [2] - The ChiNext Index is expected to experience oscillation adjustments in the early hours of Tuesday, as it approaches a significant support level at the annual line [1]

Group 1: A-Share Market Analysis - The A-share market is constrained within the range of 2000-5000 points primarily due to capital account controls, limiting participation to domestic investors and restricting foreign investment [1][4]. - The perception of A-shares as a game of stock trading is influenced by the long-standing experience of older investors, who tend to trade within this established range [5][6]. - Long-term investors may find it challenging to engage with cyclical sectors in a downward trend, as they may struggle to identify optimal entry and exit points [6][7]. Group 2: Gold Market Insights - The recent surge in gold prices, which increased by $1000 in a few weeks, raises concerns about a potential crash, likening it to driving too fast [3][11]. - Current discussions about re-entering the gold market may be premature, as the value bubble has not fully dissipated [4][13]. - A significant correction in gold prices could occur, with a potential drop of one-third before any rebound, indicating that the market dynamics are still uncertain [14][15]. Group 3: Bitcoin Market Outlook - Bitcoin is approaching the peak of its four-year cycle, with any new highs unlikely to exceed approximately $115,000, previously reaching around $125,000 [5][16]. - The cyclical nature of Bitcoin suggests that the first year typically experiences declines, followed by two years of growth, indicating a wait-and-see approach until the end of Q3 next year for potential buying opportunities [16].

Market Index Analysis - The major A-share indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen continued to rise, aligning with expectations, although the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index showed weaker performance. Most stocks declined, indicating low market sentiment [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index were highlighted for further analysis, with a focus on the Shanghai 50 Index first [1] Shanghai 50 Index - The Shanghai 50 Index displayed a K-line with a low opening gap, a long upper shadow, a small body, and a slight lower shadow, signaling a clear stabilization. It has completed five effective cycles of upward movement and reached a turning point, with the adjustment target being the five-day moving average, which was successfully tested [3] - The large structure 1 and small structure 2 have both achieved effective breakthroughs, indicating that the market index is in an upward trend and entering a new wave of increases [3] ChiNext Index - The ChiNext Index showed adjustment signals in the past two trading days, but when viewed collectively, it indicates that the short-term adjustment is complete, making today's rise normal. However, it is approaching previous high points, which may lead to significant selling pressure [6] - The hourly trend indicates that after ten effective upward cycles, it has gradually tested the ten-unit moving average. Despite two hours of continuous highs followed by pullbacks, it remains above the moving average, suggesting potential for upward momentum in the afternoon [6]

Market Index Analysis - The major A-share indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen experienced a rebound after hitting a low, with most stocks showing an upward trend, indicating decent market sentiment [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a long lower shadow in its candlestick, suggesting weak upward momentum and a potential for further adjustments in the near future [3] - The recent three trading days have seen the index reach a high point with declining trading volume, indicating a divergence between price and volume, which is a negative signal [3] Specific Index Insights - The Shanghai 50 Index reached a new short-term high, which is expected to support a slight increase in the Shanghai Composite Index on Friday [3] - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index also showed signs of stabilization with a long lower shadow in its daily candlestick, indicating a potential for short-term recovery [6] - The recent adjustment period for the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index has lasted for eight effective cycles, with the ninth cycle expected to bring a turning point, suggesting a high probability of continued upward movement on Friday [6]

Market Index Analysis - The major A-share indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen continued to rise, aligning with previous analysis expectations, indicating a significant recovery in market sentiment [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index were highlighted for further analysis after the market closed [1] Shanghai 50 Index - The Shanghai 50 Index has completed eight effective adjustment cycles as of the previous day's close, with the morning session marking the ninth cycle, indicating a potential turning point [4] - The index experienced effective upward movement during the first two hours of trading, but the likelihood of maintaining this upward trend in the afternoon is low, suggesting a potential for consolidation [4] - On a daily chart, the Shanghai 50 Index remains within a consolidation range, with recent trading days showing a continuous decrease in volume, indicating that the index is merely experiencing a rebound and may face further adjustments [4] ChiNext Index - The ChiNext Index has seen significant declines recently, with a rapid drop in value; however, a slight rebound occurred after five effective adjustment cycles, which does not correspond proportionately to the previous declines [7] - The index's rebound reached near the ten-day moving average, which is considered a normal recovery; however, similar to the main board indices, the trading volume has severely contracted, indicating insufficient upward momentum [7] - As of the previous day's close, the ChiNext Index had completed four effective adjustment cycles, with the last hour's candlestick providing a stabilization signal, making today's rise a normal occurrence [7]