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AEC 市场在“替代与扩张”的交汇点
傅里叶的猫· 2025-08-09 11:39
Core Viewpoint - The global AEC market is experiencing significant growth, with demand projected to reach 6.5 million units by 2025, up from 5.5 million units previously estimated, driven primarily by increased demand from Nvidia and AWS [1] Market Demand and Customer Breakdown - By 2026, global AEC demand is expected to rise to the tens of millions, with major clients including Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google, primarily for 800G standard products [2] - Specific customer demand estimates for 2026 include: Google increasing from 300,000 to 600,000-800,000 units, AWS growing over 40% from 2.5 million units, and Meta's demand around 1.3 million units [2] Pricing and Profit Margins - Nvidia's pricing for 400G AEC is $140 per unit with a 40% gross margin, while 800G is priced at $230 with a 43% margin; Meta's pricing exceeds $270 with margins over 50% [3] - Marvell chips are approximately 20% cheaper than Credo chips, but Credo offers better performance and signal integrity [3] Technical Comparisons - AEC is more cost-effective than AOC, with AEC costing about 30% less and being 1/7 the size of DAC for the same transmission rate [4] - The longest transmission distance for AEC is currently 7 meters, with potential improvements to 100 meters under development [4] Cost Structure and Production Capacity - In 800G AEC, retimer components account for 45%-50% of costs, with cables at 20% and connectors at 25%; costs are expected to decrease by less than 15% next year [5] - The total production value for the company is nearing $5 billion, with significant contributions from overseas factories [6] Other Business Segments - The company's traditional business is projected to generate around $2.7 billion this year, with a 35% growth expected next year, driven by overseas clients [7] - The power line business has entered Nvidia's supply chain, with expected revenues of $700 million to $800 million next year [7] Competitive Landscape - The company utilizes Marvell chips, while competitors like Bochuang use different wiring solutions, allowing for better cost management and profit margins [8] - AEC's application in ASICs is currently lower than in GPUs, with a ratio of 1:0.5 in Meta's Minerva project [8]