Key Takeaways CRDO's connectivity solutions and fast-growing AEC, optical and PCIe lines fuel its AI-driven expansion.Hyperlume's microLED technology and new product launches broaden CRDO's reach.AVGO posts AI semiconductor gains and VMware momentum but faces margin pressure and slower non-AI recovery. Semiconductor companies are at the core of the AI revolution as they offer solutions that enable improved processing power and efficiency to manage AI workloads. Amid rapid AI proliferation, investors are inc ...

有那么一家芯片公司，你可能很少听过它的名字，但他们是人工智能时代当之无愧的大赢家。 从股票市场看，截止笔者撰稿为止（2025年11月17日），如下图所示，自2022年1月上市以来， 该公司的股价已经暴涨超1200%；过去一年，该公司股票上涨也超过250%；如果只统计今年至 今的股票走势，他们市值也翻倍，增长幅度超过100%。 具体到业绩方面，截至2025年8月2日的 2026 财年第一季度，该公司营收同比增长 274%，环比 增长 31%，公司GAAP毛利率更是高达67.4%。 以上就是这家名为Credo的公司在过去几年的市场表现。管中窥豹，能获得这样的表现，主要归 功于该公司在技术方面的持续创新与过硬的产品实力，其中包括与人工智能基础设施密切相关的 有源电缆 (AEC) 所占据的领先市场地位及其灵活且全面的光学DSP 解决方案。 如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 但对于这家企业而言，一切才刚刚开始。 重新定义高速连接 杨学贤介绍说，这种互联不只表现于单个层面上或者单个节点上，而是存在于AI网络每一个节点 中，涵盖芯片内部的互联、芯片间的互联、服务器间的互联及机架间的互联。 历经多年的发展，Credo ...

Core Insights - The article compares two semiconductor companies, Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (CRDO) and Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL), both of which are integral to the infrastructure supporting AI-driven data centers [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - CRDO specializes in high-speed connectivity solutions, particularly in its AEC product line, which has seen significant growth due to its reliability and lower power consumption compared to optical solutions [4][5]. - Marvell has a diversified product portfolio, focusing on custom ASICs, data center switches, and 5G chips, with a strategic pivot towards the data center market [9][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - CRDO reported a strong fiscal first quarter, with three hyperscalers contributing over 10% of revenues, and anticipates continued revenue growth from these clients [5][8]. - MRVL's data center revenues surged 69% year over year, with a significant contribution from custom silicon and electro-optics, making data center the largest segment for the company [9][11]. Group 3: Growth Drivers - CRDO's growth is driven by its AEC business, optical solutions, and PCIe retimer products, with expectations of substantial revenue growth in fiscal 2026 [6][7][8]. - MRVL's growth is supported by its custom XPU products and a robust design pipeline, with management targeting a significant increase in market share in the data center space [11][12]. Group 4: Market Position and Valuation - CRDO's stock has increased by 76% over the past three months, while MRVL's stock has declined by 1.7% during the same period [9][16]. - In terms of valuation, CRDO has a forward price/sales ratio of 26.94X, which is higher than MRVL's 7.17X, indicating differing market perceptions [18]. Group 5: Analyst Estimates - Analysts have significantly revised earnings estimates for CRDO upwards, while MRVL has seen only minor revisions [20][21]. - CRDO holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), while MRVL has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a more favorable outlook for CRDO at this time [23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Shanxi Securities has given a "buy" rating for Xinyi Technology (300502.SZ) based on its strong performance and growth prospects [1] - The company has significantly increased its production capacity in the first half of the year, maintaining excellent delivery capabilities, resulting in both revenue and profit growth [1] - New product outlook includes rapid volume increase of 1.6T products, gradual rise in silicon photonics proportion, and layouts in AEC and CPO [1] Group 2 - The North American ASIC custom chip market is expected to continue growing by 2026, with the company positioned as a core supplier benefiting from major clients [1] - Potential risks include changes in tariff policies or US-China trade tensions leading to lower-than-expected capital expenditures in North America, introduction of new suppliers by downstream major clients affecting shipment volumes, and rising upstream material costs impacting gross margins [1] - The company may face technological risks if it falls behind in the research and development of next-generation optical communications such as CPO and OIO [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [9]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with FY26 revenue expected to reach $985 million, representing a 125.5% year-over-year increase. For FY27 and FY28, revenues are forecasted at $1.362 billion and $1.710 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 38.3% and 25.6% [5][9]. - The company has diversified its customer base, with three customers contributing over 10% of revenue in FY26Q1, and anticipates additional large cloud vendor clients entering the market [8]. - The AEC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) solutions are expected to benefit from the growing demand in AI and cloud services, leading to increased sales and market share [9]. Financial Summary - For FY24, the company is expected to generate revenue of $193 million, with a projected EBITDA of -$8.97 million. By FY26, revenue is expected to reach $985 million with a positive EBITDA of $286.78 million [5][12]. - The company is expected to turn profitable by FY26, with a projected net profit of $250 million, increasing to $458 million by FY28 [5][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for FY26 is $1.45, increasing to $2.65 by FY28 [5]. Performance Analysis - In FY26Q1, the company reported revenue of $223 million, a 274% increase year-over-year, and a GAAP net profit of $63.4 million, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [7]. - The company expects continued revenue growth in FY26Q2, with guidance of $230 to $240 million [7]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the AEC market, with expectations of benefiting from the increasing demand for high-speed data solutions driven by AI and cloud computing [9]. - The growth in GPU and ASIC shipments is anticipated to further enhance the demand for the company's AEC products [9].

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 10.437 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 282.64% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.942 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 355.68% [3] - Growth in sales revenue and net profit is primarily driven by the continuous increase in AI-related computing power investments and the optimization of product structure, with a higher proportion of high-speed optical module products [3] Group 2: Market and Product Insights - The core reasons for the high growth in revenue in Q2 include sustained high industry demand, an increasing proportion of high-speed products, and a continuous rise in customer orders [3] - The company anticipates that the industry’s favorable conditions will continue based on current market and customer order demand [3] - The company plans to gradually ramp up the delivery of its 1.6T products starting in the second half of this year, with further increases expected next year [3] Group 3: Supply Chain and Production - The company maintains long-term partnerships with suppliers and has implemented proactive inventory management strategies to meet market demand [4] - The Thai factory's first phase was completed and put into production in the first half of 2025, with the second phase expected to be operational by early 2026 [4] - Current tariff policies have not significantly impacted the company's financials, and the company will continue to monitor changes in tariff policies [4] Group 4: Research and Development - The increase in R&D expenses in Q2 is attributed to the company's commitment to enhancing team capabilities and project development, which aligns with the growth of the business [4] - The company is focusing on new technologies and products, with expectations for an increase in the proportion of silicon photonic solutions in the second half of this year and into next year [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [1]. Core Insights - The upgrade of AI cluster network architecture is driving demand for optical modules, switches, network cards, and fiber optic cables due to the need for enhanced backend networking to support increased east-west traffic [2][12]. - The upcoming release of NVIDIA's GB300 is expected to significantly boost the demand for 1.6T optical modules, as the new architecture requires a higher number of upgraded optical modules compared to its predecessor [2][67]. - The trend towards self-developed ASICs by major players like Google, AWS, Meta, and Microsoft is anticipated to further increase the demand for optical modules and AEC connections [2][69]. Summary by Sections AI Cluster Network Architecture Upgrade - Traditional network architectures are inadequate for AI computing, primarily due to high latency and bandwidth limitations [11][12]. - The AI network architecture necessitates the addition of backend networks, which increases the demand for switches and optical modules [12][34]. NVIDIA H100 and NVL72 Cluster Network Architecture - The report details the network architecture for NVIDIA's H100 and NVL72 clusters, highlighting the differences in optical module requirements between the GB200 and GB300 models [47][66]. - The GB300 model requires a significant number of 1.6T dual-port optical modules, reflecting a shift in optical module demand as network speeds increase [67][68]. North American Leading CSP Network Architecture - The report discusses the network architecture of leading cloud service providers in North America, emphasizing the importance of efficient interconnectivity and the role of optical modules in supporting large-scale AI operations [74][78]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends leading companies in the optical device and module sector, such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology, and Tianfu Communication, while also suggesting attention to companies like Huilv Ecology and Zhaolong Interconnect in the high-speed copper cable segment [2][113].

Core Viewpoint - The global AEC market is experiencing significant growth, with demand projected to reach 6.5 million units by 2025, up from 5.5 million units previously estimated, driven primarily by increased demand from Nvidia and AWS [1] Market Demand and Customer Breakdown - By 2026, global AEC demand is expected to rise to the tens of millions, with major clients including Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google, primarily for 800G standard products [2] - Specific customer demand estimates for 2026 include: Google increasing from 300,000 to 600,000-800,000 units, AWS growing over 40% from 2.5 million units, and Meta's demand around 1.3 million units [2] Pricing and Profit Margins - Nvidia's pricing for 400G AEC is $140 per unit with a 40% gross margin, while 800G is priced at $230 with a 43% margin; Meta's pricing exceeds $270 with margins over 50% [3] - Marvell chips are approximately 20% cheaper than Credo chips, but Credo offers better performance and signal integrity [3] Technical Comparisons - AEC is more cost-effective than AOC, with AEC costing about 30% less and being 1/7 the size of DAC for the same transmission rate [4] - The longest transmission distance for AEC is currently 7 meters, with potential improvements to 100 meters under development [4] Cost Structure and Production Capacity - In 800G AEC, retimer components account for 45%-50% of costs, with cables at 20% and connectors at 25%; costs are expected to decrease by less than 15% next year [5] - The total production value for the company is nearing $5 billion, with significant contributions from overseas factories [6] Other Business Segments - The company's traditional business is projected to generate around $2.7 billion this year, with a 35% growth expected next year, driven by overseas clients [7] - The power line business has entered Nvidia's supply chain, with expected revenues of $700 million to $800 million next year [7] Competitive Landscape - The company utilizes Marvell chips, while competitors like Bochuang use different wiring solutions, allowing for better cost management and profit margins [8] - AEC's application in ASICs is currently lower than in GPUs, with a ratio of 1:0.5 in Meta's Minerva project [8]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The cloud service industry is experiencing significant capital expenditure (CAPEX) growth, with major players like Meta and Google expected to spend $72 billion and $85 billion respectively in 2023, requiring over 10% quarter-on-quarter growth in the second half of the year [1][2] - The optical module industry saw a quarter-on-quarter growth of 30% in Q2, with leading companies achieving up to 50% growth, indicating a strong demand driven by cloud service investments [1][3] Key Points and Arguments - **CAPEX Growth**: North American cloud providers' total CAPEX reached approximately $95 billion, a year-on-year increase of 66.59% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of over 30% [2] - **Microsoft's Performance**: Microsoft reported a Q2 CAPEX of $24.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 50%, with expectations to reach $30 billion in Q3, indicating a robust growth trajectory in cloud services [6] - **Future Industry Outlook**: The industry is expected to maintain a healthy growth rate of around 30% over the next few quarters, with potential for further upward revisions in performance forecasts [7] - **Optical Interconnect Market**: The optical interconnect market is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% from 2027 to 2030, driven by the expansion of single-node computing scenarios [8] - **AI Investments**: Google is heavily investing in AI applications, achieving a monthly growth rate of nearly 40% in AI token processing, indicating a closed-loop formation in AI applications that stimulates demand for training and inference computing power [1][13] Additional Important Insights - **Domestic IDC Valuation**: The domestic IDC sector shows reasonable valuations, with companies like Runze and David having price-to-earnings ratios around 25 times, while Data Harbor and Guanghuan Xinwang are around 15-16 times, suggesting opportunities for investment in undervalued companies [3][16] - **Technological Trends**: Key technological directions include GEL up, OIO, and CPU developments, with significant increases in fiber optic connections anticipated in future applications [10][12] - **Investment Opportunities**: The current IDC market presents stable investment opportunities, particularly in companies like Guanghuan and Data Harbor, which have a high safety margin [17] - **Concerns Over PCB Technology**: There are market concerns regarding the impact of orthogonal backplane PCB technology on the copper cable sector, but advancements in high-speed copper AEC are expected to maintain demand in data centers [19] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the growth trends, investment opportunities, and technological advancements within the cloud and optical interconnect industries.

Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows a slowdown in industrial production and a weakening in real estate transactions, indicating a cautious outlook for the economy [3][6][8]. Industry Analysis Communication Industry - The demand for copper interconnects is increasing due to their low cost and low power consumption advantages in short-distance connections, driven by the rise of AI technologies [4][11]. - The AEC technology is gaining attention for enhancing signal quality and transmission distance in data centers, which is expected to grow significantly as AI continues to develop [13]. Construction and Real Estate - Recent data indicates a seasonal decline in construction starts, with cement dispatch rates and construction site funding levels falling below historical averages [3][6][8]. - New housing transactions in first-tier cities are experiencing a significant year-on-year decline, suggesting a cooling real estate market [8]. Commodity Prices - International commodity prices, including oil and gold, have decreased due to reduced geopolitical tensions, while domestic industrial products are showing a strong performance [7][8]. Export Trends - Export growth is projected to be around 2% year-on-year for June, with key indicators such as port container throughput showing positive trends [9]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading companies in the copper cable connector industry, particularly those with integrated advantages and strong partnerships in the AI server market [14].