Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR.US)经历连续六个交易日的暴跌，市值蒸发逾730亿美元，让今年持续受 挫的做空机构意外斩获罕见胜利。 数据显示，自8月12日创下历史新高以来，这家聚焦于"AI+数据分析"的美国数据软件巨头的股价跌幅 超17%，创下自2024年4月以来最长连跌纪录，正走向今年4月初"关税风暴"后最惨淡的单周表现。 据S3 Partners LLC数据，本轮下跌为空头带来超过16亿美元利润，但这仅勉强弥补了今年以来做空 Palantir交易员45亿美元账面亏损的冰山一角。尽管该股成为过去六个交易日标普500指数中最差表现成 分股，但其在2025年仍以106%的涨幅领跑基准指数。 这一惊人涨幅将Palantir估值推至令人眩晕的高度。然而过去一年间，逆势交易者大多放弃做空该股 ——因其上涨势头似乎永无止境。做空股数占流通股比例(衡量可借券做空规模的关键指标)已从一年前 的近5%降至约2.5%。S3 Partners董事总经理Matthew Unterman指出，这表明空头在股价攀升过程中被迫 平仓。 "他们要么想避开这辆势不可挡的动量交易巨轮，要么是在被这列货运列车碾 ...

智通财经APP获悉，Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR.US)经历连续六个交易日的暴跌，市值蒸发逾730亿 美元，让今年持续受挫的做空机构意外斩获罕见胜利。 数据显示，自8月12日创下历史新高以来，这家聚焦于"AI+数据分析"的美国数据软件巨头的股价跌幅 超17%，创下自2024年4月以来最长连跌纪录，正走向今年4月初"关税风暴"后最惨淡的单周表现。 据S3 Partners LLC数据，本轮下跌为空头带来超过16亿美元利润，但这仅勉强弥补了今年以来做空 Palantir交易员45亿美元账面亏损的冰山一角。尽管该股成为过去六个交易日标普500指数中最差表现成 分股，但其在2025年仍以106%的涨幅领跑基准指数。 这一惊人涨幅将Palantir估值推至令人眩晕的高度。然而过去一年间，逆势交易者大多放弃做空该股 ——因其上涨势头似乎永无止境。做空股数占流通股比例(衡量可借券做空规模的关键指标)已从一年前 的近5%降至约2.5%。S3 Partners董事总经理Matthew Unterman指出，这表明空头在股价攀升过程中被迫 平仓。 "他们要么想避开这辆势不可挡的动量交易巨轮，要么 ...

Core Insights - Palantir has experienced a remarkable rise in its stock price, similar to Tesla, but concerns remain about whether it can meet high market expectations [1] - Both companies have shown significant stock price increases without corresponding revenue growth, leading to skepticism about potential corrections [1] Group 1: Stock Performance Comparison - Tesla's stock surged from $24 to approximately $340, a rise of over 1100%, since 2020 [1] - Palantir's stock increased from $16 to a peak of $190, achieving around 1000% growth [1] - Both companies have created notable short-term performance despite not achieving tenfold revenue growth [1] Group 2: Institutional Ownership Characteristics - A common feature between Tesla and Palantir is the low institutional ownership, with Tesla having about 49% of its float held by institutions, significantly lower than other tech giants like Google and Meta [2] - Palantir's institutional ownership is approximately 53%, which is also lower compared to similar market cap companies like Costco (69%) and ExxonMobil (67%) [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The low institutional ownership characteristic suggests that Palantir's stock may continue to exhibit "irrational" volatility [3] - Investment decisions regarding Palantir will depend on individual judgment, with a cautionary note that Tesla's volatility increased significantly after its price surge, indicating Palantir may be approaching a similar critical point [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The future battlefield's "intelligence supremacy" is key to victory, driven by advancements in foundational technology and the military's ability to process big data and utilize AI systems for data analysis and weapon control [5][18] - The company is positioned as a leader in AI and data analysis, directly comparable to Palantir (PLTR), with significant growth potential in the defense and public safety sectors [6][30] Summary by Sections Investment Five Elements - The company is fundamentally an AI SaaS and data analysis application company, focusing on real-world scenarios and needs to enhance upstream capabilities [10] - The strategic product "Star Map Luoshu" is expected to replicate the success of PLTR's AIP platform [10] - The company has accumulated 20 years of experience in defense remote sensing data analysis, providing a deep understanding of specialized industry know-how [47] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected total revenue for 2025-2027 is 43.11 billion, 61.74 billion, and 88.72 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.3%, 43.2%, and 43.7% respectively [11][9] - Expected net profit for the same period is 4.90 billion, 8.09 billion, and 12.20 billion yuan, with growth rates of 39.4%, 65.0%, and 50.7% respectively [11][9] Differentiation from Market Views - The market views the company as a traditional remote sensing satellite application company; however, it is redefined as a generative AI SaaS and data analysis company with extensive real-world scenarios [12] - The company is leading the industry in commercial model upgrades, moving from specialized to government and commercial sectors [12] - Concerns about future growth rates are addressed by the company's proactive structural adjustments and focus on high-quality growth [13] Catalysts for Stock Performance - Progress in product development and implementation in the AI and data analysis fields [13] - Orders from specialized, government, and commercial clients [13] - The valuation situation of PLTR and supportive policies for low-altitude new infrastructure [13]