【 摘要 】摩根资产管理李德辉认为，短期回调或不改长期投资机遇，A股整体仍处于一个健康的 上行通道中。摩根士丹利基金吴慧文指出，债券市场已从单边行情进入低利率、低波动、低利差 的震荡周期，进入"交易为王时代"。 图片 一、焦点锐评 图片 1．前10月工业企业利润同比增长1.9%，增速回落 11月27日，国家统计局公布的数据显示，1-10月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长1.9%，前 值增长3.2%。从三大门类看，1-10月份，采矿业下降27.8%，降幅较1-9月份收窄1.5个百分 点；制造业增长7.7%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长9.5%。10月份，受上年同期基 数有所抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。 【解读】中金公司张文朗团队认为，工业企业利润增速显著回落，利润下滑主要由营收收缩 （-3.3%）、费用率上升（+0.38个百分点）及投资收益骤降（10月其他损益降至201亿元，较9 月回落近60%）共同驱动。结构分化，采矿业利润降幅收窄，有色开采保持29.7%高增长，煤炭 与油气仍处下行；制造业全链条利润承压，上游与中游受投资收益与费用拖累显著，下游消费品 降幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current discussions around the "AI industry bubble" are reminiscent of the 2000 internet bubble, but the pessimistic view overlooks the underlying technological waves that are foundational to the AI industry [1][5]. Group 1: AI Industry Bubble Concerns - Silicon Valley giants are engaged in a "left foot, right foot" investment model, where companies like OpenAI and Nvidia create a closed loop of mutual investment and resource bundling, leading to inflated valuations despite limited revenue [2]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the current AI investment frenzy mirrors the 2000 internet bubble, indicating a state of "irrational exuberance" in the market [3]. - Notable short-seller Mike Burry has significantly increased his short position on Nvidia and Palantir, citing a lack of real application scenarios to support the inflated valuations of major tech companies reliant on AI concepts [4]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Energy Challenges - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella highlighted a critical shortage of electrical infrastructure to support AI operations, with significant GPU resources remaining idle due to power shortages [5]. - The energy consumption of AI data centers is projected to rise dramatically, with estimates suggesting that by 2028, AI data centers could account for 12% of total electricity consumption in the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The evolution of the AI industry follows a similar pattern to previous technological waves, such as mobile internet and renewable energy, which experienced foundational infrastructure development before explosive growth [6][8]. - The current phase of AI development is characterized by a surge in demand for computational power, with projections indicating that by 2025, AI workloads will account for 53% of total data center power demand [9]. - The AI industry is on the verge of a significant application explosion, with potential breakthrough products emerging, akin to the iPhone 4 and Model 3 in their respective eras [9].