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美国缺电预期走强,重申核能机遇
HTSC· 2025-07-24 15:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the nuclear energy sector in the U.S. and a "Buy" rating for specific companies such as KAP and CGN Mining [1][5][12] Core Insights - The expectation of electricity shortages in the U.S. is strengthening, with the PJM electricity market's recent capacity auction clearing at the maximum level, highlighting concerns over electricity supply and the need for base-load power sources [1][2] - The U.S. government, under the "AI National Policy," emphasizes the importance of energy infrastructure development, including nuclear fission and fusion technologies, positioning nuclear energy as a critical driver for economic growth and AI development [2][3] - Various stakeholders in the U.S. are increasingly supportive of new nuclear power projects, with significant announcements from energy developers and state officials indicating a shift from strong expectations to tangible developments in nuclear capacity [3] Summary by Sections Electricity Supply and Demand - The U.S. Department of Energy's report indicates an expected addition of 101 GW of electricity load by 2030, while only 22 GW of base-load capacity is planned, revealing a significant gap in electricity supply [1] - The PJM market's capacity auction results show a price of $329.17/MW-day for 134.3 GW of base-load power, a 22% increase from the previous year, reflecting heightened electricity shortage expectations [1] Nuclear Energy Development - The U.S. nuclear energy sector is poised for revival, with new projects and expansions being planned, including applications for new AP1000 reactors and commitments from major operators to advance nuclear projects [3][5] - The report highlights the strategic importance of nuclear energy in the context of U.S. economic and technological advancements, particularly in relation to AI [2] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include CGN Mining and KAP, with additional mentions of companies across the nuclear energy supply chain, such as Cameco, Doosan Energy, and GE Vernova [5][8] - The report projects significant profit growth for KAP, with expected net profits of 649, 874, and 1,151 million for 2025-2027, respectively, and a target price of $58.91 per share [9]