中金研究 我们认为电网和工控行业2025年上半年基本面保持韧性，提示投资者关注下半年业绩和估值修复机会。 电网方面，1-5月国内电网投资保持高景气，特 高压核准节奏虽慢于预期但有望在三季度快速追赶，面临新能源消纳压力，我们认为全年以及未来两三年电网投资均有望保持向上趋势。工控方面， 1Q25以来部分行业需求持续改善，整体库存去化顺畅，但整体资本开支动能仍略显清淡，新周期有望窄幅波动。 此外，我们重点提示关注新质生产力 （AIDC+人形机器人）、核能复兴、出海三大投资方向。 投资主线1：关注新质生产力带来的盈利和估值弹性。 我们认为工控公司凭借电力电子的技术基础一方面向自动化、机器人领域延展，积极布局人形机器 人关节模组、核心零部件等产品带来了显著的估值弹性；另一方面向数据中心输配电领域延展，积极布局服务器电源、UPS、HVDC/巴拿马电源等，也充 分享受了AI资本开支上修的市场红利。 投资主线2：核能复兴，关注核电设备与SMR、可控核聚变赛道。 1H25国内核准10台核电机组，美国特朗普签署总统令复兴核能，我们认为核电作为重 要基荷能源，正重新回归全球各国视野，核能产业即将进入投资价值重估的战略复兴阶段。数据 ...

今天分享的是：摩根大通：2025年炼金术士放眼市场展望报告 报告共计：49页 《摩根大通：2025年炼金术士放眼市场展望报告》核心内容总结 本报告由摩根资产及财富管理市场及投资策略部主席岑博智撰写，聚焦2025年全球市场多个关键领域的趋势与挑战，涵盖人工 智能、核能、美国政策、中国经济、欧洲局势、加密货币等方面。 人工智能：驱动市场但需警惕风险 投资者对核电前景憧憬推动相关股票上涨，美国政府也出台新法加速核电发展，如《Advance法案》简化审批流程。但核能项目 成本超支问题严重，如佐治亚州Vogtle 3核电站多次延误且运行不稳定。小型模块化反应堆虽被寄予厚望，但2025年美国并无此 类项目开工，且新一代核设计（如熔盐堆、高温气冷堆）商业化仍需时日，中国相关项目也面临运行能力不足的问题。 美国政策：多领域影响市场 "炼金术士"政策涉及放宽监管、关税调整、减税等。放宽监管可能提升生产率，但与拜登政府监管激增形成对比。关税方面， 若对中国加征60%关税并实施普遍关税，可能拖累美国GDP增长，且中国反制措施（如限制稀土出口、抛售美债等）会加剧贸 易摩擦。美国政府支出削减困难，福利支出占比高，非国防自由支配支出已处 ...

证券研究报告 签订新销售框架协议，充分受益铀价上行 ——中广核矿业（HK1164）深度报告 股票投资评级：买入|维持 李帅华/魏欣 中邮证券研究所 有色新材料团队 中邮证券 1 1 发布时间：2025-06-10 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ➢ 公司发展进入快车道。公司是中广核集团下海外铀资源开发的唯一平台，母公司为中国铀业发展有限公司，实控人 为国资委。公司业务主要为自有矿山产品销售和国际贸易，2019年公司收购中广核国际铀产品销售有限公司营收 规模快速增长，2021年收购奥公司49%股权后包销量达1321tU，较2020年增加73%。 ➢ 背靠中广核集团，资源丰富，成本优势显著。公司具备三大优势：中广核集团内部核电需求旺盛，公司潜在增量市 场广阔，且新协议下售价更具弹性；在产矿山随着硫酸供应恢复逐步放量，预计2026-2028年度包销量为 1036/1225/1298吨铀；公司在产矿山采用酸浸方式生产，生产成本基本处于全球铀资源生产成本10%分位以内。 ◼ 核电复苏叠加地缘冲突扰动，紧缺状态仍将持续。2025年以来现货铀价最低跌至64美元/磅左右，主要由于长贸合 同活动相对低迷，2024年长贸签约量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has signed a three-year natural uranium sales agreement with its parent company, China Uranium Development, for the years 2026-28, with benchmark prices and annual increment factors exceeding market expectations, indicating a positive outlook for the global nuclear energy revival and the company's profitability and valuation [1] Pricing and Sales Agreement - The benchmark price for the new agreement is set at $94.22, $98.08, and $102.1 per pound of U3O8 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, which is significantly higher than the market average of $80 per pound since February [1] - The annual increment factor for the new agreement is increased to 4.1%, up from 3.5% in the previous agreement, reflecting a positive industry outlook on global uranium supply and demand tightening [2] - The proportion of spot price in the pricing formula has been raised from 60% to 70%, enhancing the company's profit elasticity and aligning future sales prices more closely with spot market trends [2] Sales Capacity and Growth Potential - The annual sales cap in the new agreement considers potential resource increases, with expected annual sales volumes of 1,438, 1,617, and 1,598 tons of U3O8 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, plus an additional buffer of 600 tons per year [2] - This clause reinforces the company's role as a platform for overseas uranium asset development under China General Nuclear Power Group, highlighting its growth potential in seeking uranium resource investment opportunities [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2026-27 upwards by 15% and 10% to 1.028 billion and 1.135 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.14 and 0.15 yuan [2] - The target price has been raised to HKD 2.43 from HKD 1.88, reflecting a clearer expectation of volume and price for 2026, with a P/E ratio of 18.0x for 2026 [2]

Group 1 - The company signed a sales framework agreement with China General Nuclear Power Group, establishing a pricing mechanism for uranium procurement from 2026 to 2028, consisting of 30% fixed price and 70% spot price [1] - The fixed price for 2026 is set at $94.22 per lb U3O8, increasing annually by a factor of 1.041, resulting in prices of $94.22, $98.08, and $102.10 per lb U3O8 for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [1] - The expected sales volume for uranium is projected to be 1438 tons in 2026, 1617 tons in 2027, and 1598 tons in 2028 based on the company's current capacity and business plans [1] Group 2 - The new three-year uranium trade long-term contract features a significant increase in fixed prices compared to the previous cycle, with fixed prices for 2026, 2027, and 2028 rising approximately 42%, 48%, and 55% respectively compared to 2025 [2] - The proportion of spot price in the new contract has increased from 60% to 70%, enhancing the company's earnings elasticity [2] - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to HKD 630 million, HKD 950 million, and HKD 1.1 billion, respectively, up from previous estimates of HKD 635 million, HKD 785 million, and HKD 836 million [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][8] Core Views - The company has signed a three-year long-term uranium sales framework agreement with China General Nuclear Power Corporation, which is expected to enhance performance due to a significant increase in fixed pricing compared to the previous cycle [3][4] - The fixed prices for 2026-2028 are set at $94.22, $98.08, and $102.10 per lb U3O8, representing increases of approximately 42%, 48%, and 55% compared to the fixed price for 2025 [4][6] - The proportion of spot prices in the pricing mechanism has increased from 60% to 70%, which enhances the company's earnings elasticity [4][6] - The new pricing mechanism is expected to result in a net profit forecast increase for 2025-2027 to HKD 630 million, HKD 950 million, and HKD 1.1 billion, respectively [4][8] Summary by Sections Sales Framework Agreement - The company has established a pricing mechanism for uranium procurement from 2026 to 2028, consisting of 30% fixed price and 70% spot price [3][5] - The fixed price for 2026 is set at $94.22 per lb U3O8, increasing annually by a factor of 1.041 [3][5] Market Outlook - The U.S. government's initiatives to boost nuclear energy, including plans for ten large nuclear power plants by 2030, may increase demand for uranium and exacerbate supply shortages [4] - The weakening U.S. dollar and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could lead to an upward trend in uranium prices [4] Financial Projections - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards due to the new long-term agreement, with expected profits of HKD 630 million, HKD 950 million, and HKD 1.1 billion [4][8] - The expected sales volumes for 2026-2028 are projected to be 1438 tons, 1617 tons, and 1598 tons of uranium, respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][8] Core Views - The company has signed a three-year long-term uranium sales framework agreement with China General Nuclear Power Corporation, which is expected to enhance performance due to a significant increase in fixed pricing compared to the previous cycle [3][4] - The fixed prices for 2026-2028 are set at $94.22, $98.08, and $102.10 per lb U3O8, representing increases of approximately 42%, 48%, and 55% compared to the fixed price for 2025 [4][6] - The proportion of spot prices in the pricing mechanism has increased from 60% to 70%, which enhances the company's earnings elasticity [4][6] - The new pricing agreement is expected to result in a net profit forecast increase for 2025-2027 to HKD 630 million, HKD 950 million, and HKD 1.1 billion, respectively [4][8] Summary by Sections Sales Framework Agreement - The company has established a pricing mechanism for uranium procurement from 2026 to 2028, consisting of 30% fixed price and 70% spot price [3][5] - The fixed price for 2026 is set at $94.22 per lb U3O8, increasing annually by a factor of 1.041 [3][5] Market Outlook - The U.S. government's initiatives to boost nuclear energy, including plans for ten large nuclear power plants by 2030, may increase demand for uranium and exacerbate supply shortages [4] - The weakening U.S. dollar and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could further support rising uranium prices [4] Financial Projections - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards due to the new long-term agreement, with expected profits of HKD 630 million, HKD 950 million, and HKD 1.1 billion [4][8] - The expected sales volumes for 2026-2028 are projected to be 1438 tons, 1617 tons, and 1598 tons of uranium, respectively [6]

受此消息刺激，美股盘前铀相关股票集体暴涨，，Constellation Energy股价一度飙升15%，Uranium Energy涨约9%，Energy Fuels涨9.9%，Nano核能涨7.4%，Nuscale Power涨7.7%。 科技巨头核电军备竞赛白热化 政策支持行政令签署后，AI热潮又推动需求扩张，美国核能要迎来复兴？ 周三，据媒体报道，Meta签署20年核电采购协议，从2027年中期开始，Meta将包揽伊利诺伊州Clinton核 电站约1.1吉瓦的全部发电量，这一电量足以供应约100万户家庭用电。 这场交易的背后是人工智能对电力需求的疯狂增长，随着AI繁荣发展，核能尤其受到青睐，因为它可以 全天候供应，并且不会排放导致全球变暖的污染物。 更具野心的是，Constellation正在考虑在Clinton核电站建设第二座反应堆的计划，该址已获得联邦政府建 设第二机组的批准。Constellation 首席执行官Joe Dominguez表示： 我们与Meta以及其他公司洽谈构建下一代资产的可能性，这合情合理。这些洽谈目前进展顺 利。 白宫还呼吁加快反应堆的监管审批，包括小型模块化反应堆。过去，核 ...

5月26日，核电板块迎来大幅上涨，其中，中核国际(02302.HK)上涨最为强势，当天股价累计涨幅超过 129%，一度创下近十年来新高。 全球核电迎来装机潮，核能产业链表现强势 核电的战略意义不言而喻，美国放宽对核能监管并加速核电建设，则是将全球投资者的话题讨论和投资 焦点再次拉回到了核能产业。 实际上，推进核电项目不仅是美国单方面的行为，其背后映射出来的是全球各国对核能的战略布局和长 期需求。 根据世界核协会数据，截至2024年12月，全球核电并网容量为396GW，并网核电站439座，在建容量 71.8GW，在建核电站66座。在COP28会议上，31个国家承诺到2050年将全球核能装机容量提高两倍。 聚焦国内，核电在中国能源结构中的重要性逐步增加。继2022年以来，中国连续第四年每年核准10台及 以上核电机组。根据《中国核能发展报告(2025)》蓝皮书，按照当前的建设速度和节奏，2030年前中国 在运核电装机规模将跃居世界第一。 可以看到在今年，国内四大核电集团均有新的项目获得核准，比如中核集团获批浙江三门核电三期(5、 6号机组)。更重要的是，今年审批核准时间早于往年且一次性通过10台机组，这或许也是核电 ...

希望扭转核能行业过度监管 根据美国白宫官网信息，此次签署的四项行政命令主题分别为"为国家安全部署先进的核反应堆技术""对核管理委员会进行改革""改革能源部的核 反应堆测试"以及"复兴核工业基础"。《卫报》称，新签署的四项命令旨在加快用于国防和人工智能用途的核反应堆的审批流程；改革核管理委员 会，目标是在未来25年内将核能电力产量提高4倍；调整监管程序，使3个实验性反应堆能在2026年7月4日前投入运行；加大对这项技术工业基础 的投资。 【环球时报记者 杨舒宇 环球时报特约记者 陈欣】当地时间23日，美国总统特朗普签署了四项与核能相关的行政命令，包括加速反应堆测试，允 许能源部和国防部在联邦土地上建造核反应堆，全面改革核管理委员会（NRC），并推动美国铀矿开采与浓缩能力提升。英国《卫报》23日报道 称，一系列行政令的签署旨在通过建造新反应堆来推动一场"核能复兴"，这些反应堆将被用于满足人工智能数据中心以及其他新兴行业的电力需 求。受此影响，美国核能相关股票上周五出现上涨。然而，多家媒体分析认为，尽管政策为核能行业提供了助力，但美国新建核电站仍面临成本 高昂、工期漫长等问题。 据美国CNBC网站报道，特朗普在上周 ...