证券研究报告 核电产业报告1： ——全球核电复兴下的4代核电的投资机会 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所 电新团队苏千叶/杨 帅波/盛炜 中邮证券 1 1 发布时间：2026-01-06 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ➢ 全球核能雄心持续超预期——三倍宣言不断扩充且被超越 ：IAEA连续5年上调核电装机预期，2023年底的三倍核能宣 言（2050年装机1200GW）从22国扩充到33国及大型非核能领域企业；根据WNA2025年11月的预测，根据目前政府 的目标，2050年全球核能装机1363GW，若考虑拟议等情况，总装机将达到1428GW。 ➢ 全球核能复兴在政府层面具有高度确定性：（1）欧洲弃核国家不断减少，德国放弃反核立场（2）三大核电事故国：美 国在2050年装机进一步上调100GW至400GW，日本和俄罗斯均大力发展核电（3）中国、印度、埃及等积极发展核电。 ➢ 核能进一步超预期的因素：多领域应用，包括核能供热、核能（非核电）制氢等。 ➢ 支撑雄心的固有安全和可持续发展（ 4代核电）：（1）出现任何事故，核反应堆不依靠外部操作，而仅靠自然物理规律 都能够趋向安全状态；（2）快堆可以把铀资源利用率 ...

AI时代的"电荒"让稳定、可量产的小型核反应堆（SMR）成为关键解法，微软谷歌等科技巨头正取代政府成为其背后金 主；尽管面临降本压力与燃料供应链的地缘风险，未来五年将是SMR证明自己能否实现规模化落地的窗口期。 硬·AI 作者 | 龙 玥 编辑 | 硬 AI 随着人工智能对能源需求的爆炸式增长，核能行业正迎来其"硅谷时刻"，而小型模块化反应堆（SMR）正 成为焦点。 1月3日，据能源媒体OilPrice的Michael Kern报道，在人工智能（AI）数据中心急剧扩张和汽车电气化进 程加速的背景下，全球电力需求的增长速度已达到总能源需求增速的两倍，而能源行业正迎来关键转折 点。 传统的间歇性可再生能源已无法满足现代经济对全天候（24/7）稳定基荷电力的需求， 核能尤其是小型模 块化反应堆（SMRs），正被视为解决这一供需矛盾的关键路径。 与传统的大型核电项目不同，SMR通过将建设周期缩短至3-5年并降低初始资本门槛，试图规避传统大型 核电项目动辄数百亿美元的财务黑洞，将核能从"大型工程"转化为"工业产品"。 这一转变最显著的特征是驱动力的变化：私营部门尤其是科技巨头已取代政府成为核电复兴的主角。微 软、谷歌、 ...

高盛2026年十大投资主题聚焦：AI基础设施投资转向数据中心内部及电力供应商；医药研发从减肥药转向心血管领域；中国经济增长将超市场预期，技 术进步和出口为主要驱动力等。美联储政策、关税裁决等政治不确定性将主导上半年市场。 高盛在报告中称， AI基础设施投资正进入新阶段 ，英伟达、微软、亚马逊等传统领军企业股价自去年夏季以来陷入停滞，而博通等新进入者开始崭露 头角。 在医药领域，减肥药市场出现分化 ，礼来继续跑赢大盘，但诺和诺德2025年股价已腰斩近半，市场焦点转向明年待批新药及心血管治疗领域的 复兴。 高盛经济学家预测中国经济增长将超出市场共识，技术进步和出口领先地位将成为主要驱动力。 与此同时， 美联储政策走向、最高法院对特朗普政府 关税政策的裁决、新任美联储主席任命等政策不确定性，将在2026年上半年主导市场情绪。 值得注意的是，高盛指出，当前美股估值已达到上世纪90年代末以来最高水平，投资者需在把握机遇的同时保持审慎。 AI基础设施深化与电力短缺交易 AI投资主题正经历显著转型。英伟达、微软、亚马逊等此前表现稳健的领军企业股价自去年夏季起停滞不前，博通等新公司开始取得进展，谷歌等 AI"赢家"开始显现。 ...

值得注意的是，高盛指出，当前美股估值已达到上世纪90年代末以来最高水平，投资者需在把握机遇的同时保持审慎。 高盛行业研究团队在2026年开年之际发布年度投资主题展望，聚焦从AI基础设施演进到地缘政治不确定性等十大关键领域。这些主题反映了全球市场正经历的 深刻转型，涵盖技术革新、医药突破、贸易格局重塑以及能源结构调整等多个维度。 高盛在报告中称， AI基础设施投资正进入新阶段 ，英伟达、微软、亚马逊等传统领军企业股价自去年夏季以来陷入停滞，而博通等新进入者开始崭露头角。 在医药领域，减肥药市场出现分化 ，礼来继续跑赢大盘，但诺和诺德2025年股价已腰斩近半，市场焦点转向明年待批新药及心血管治疗领域的复兴。 高盛经济学家预测中国经济增长将超出市场共识，技术进步和出口领先地位将成为主要驱动力。 与此同时， 美联储政策走向、最高法院对特朗普政府关税政 策的裁决、新任美联储主席任命等政策不确定性，将在2026年上半年主导市场情绪。 AI基础设施深化与电力短缺交易 AI投资主题正经历显著转型。英伟达、微软、亚马逊等此前表现稳健的领军企业股价自去年夏季起停滞不前，博通等新公司开始取得进展，谷歌等AI"赢家"开 始显现。 投 ...

高盛行业研究团队在2026年开年之际发布年度投资主题展望，聚焦从AI基础设施演进到地缘政治不确 定性等十大关键领域。这些主题反映了全球市场正经历的深刻转型，涵盖技术革新、医药突破、贸易格 局重塑以及能源结构调整等多个维度。 高盛在报告中称，AI基础设施投资正进入新阶段，英伟达、微软、亚马逊等传统领军企业股价自去年 夏季以来陷入停滞，而博通等新进入者开始崭露头角。在医药领域，减肥药市场出现分化，礼来继续跑 赢大盘，但诺和诺德2025年股价已腰斩近半，市场焦点转向明年待批新药及心血管治疗领域的复兴。 AI基础设施建设中的"电力板块"也在转型，公用事业股票涨势停滞，但燃气轮机供应商GE Vernova持 续上涨，Quanta Services和EME等能够安装这些设备的公司继续受益于市场和现场服务的稀缺性。 Ryan Hammond在11月18日的报告中指出，下一阶段的交易将涵盖通过采用AI工具提高效率的企业。 医药研发重心转移 GLP-1减肥药市场的转型更为明显。礼来股价持续跑赢大盘，但诺和诺德2025年股价已损失近半，价格 和销量双重压力导致市场对其2026年每股收益预期下调33%。 高盛经济学家预测中国经济增 ...

在40多年前，1982年，中法签署了第一份关于和平利用核能的合作协议。当时，法国是老师，中国是学生。法国拥有全球最成熟的压水堆核电技术，并且在 核电运营上积累了丰富的经验。而中国则在追求现代化的道路上，面临巨大的能源需求。在这种背景下，中法的首次合作结晶便是深圳大亚湾核电站。这座 核电站不仅是中国大陆首座大型商用核电站，也是中国改革开放的重要象征。大亚湾几乎是法国核电技术的完整复刻，从技术到管理再到标准，法国的电力 集团和法马通公司无私地分享了他们的经验，中国则用巨大的市场和谦逊的学习态度作为回报。这段合作关系处于典型的以市场换技术阶段，双方都从中获 益，关系也简单纯粹。 最近，法国总统马克龙访问中国，并讨论了多项议题，其中关于核能合作的联合声明引起了广泛关注。联合声明通常用来表达双方的共识，但从此次声明的 内容中可以看出，中法在核能领域的合作进入了一个更加复杂的新阶段。回顾过去四十年中法核能合作的历程，我们可以发现，这段始于1980年代的合作关 系，早已不再是当初的亲密无间。如今，这段关系正面临着一种典型的中年危机。 与此同时，法国却陷入了困境。马克龙推出了雄心勃勃的核能复兴计划，计划新建6座EPR2反应堆 ...

Industry Overview - Nuclear energy is regaining favor globally due to its efficiency, reliability, and zero emissions, with a focus on recommissioning old plants and developing new technologies like small modular reactors (SMRs) [1] - The U.S. Department of Energy estimates a need for 200 gigawatts (GW) of new nuclear capacity to meet future power demands and net-zero emission goals, planning to add 35 GW by 2035 and 15 GW per year through 2040 [6] Company Profiles Oklo - Founded in 2013, Oklo is developing advanced fission power plants using metal-fueled fast-reactor technology, with its core product being the Aurora powerhouse [7] - The Aurora powerhouses are designed to produce electricity in compact sizes, initially targeting 15 MWe and 75 MWe, with potential expansion to 100 MWe and higher [7] - Oklo aims to have its first Aurora powerhouse operational by late 2027 or early 2028, but has not yet built any operational units or secured binding customer agreements [9] Centrus Energy - Centrus Energy, operational since 1998 and restructured in 2014, provides nuclear fuel components and enrichment services, primarily generating revenue from selling low-enriched uranium (LEU) [10] - The company currently relies on outside sources for LEU, including an agreement with a Russian entity, but faces a need to replace about 25% of enriched uranium imports from Russia due to an expected import ban by 2028 [11] - Centrus aims to produce LEU and high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU) in-house using advanced centrifuge technology, with plans to expand its enrichment capacity contingent on funding and customer commitments [13] Investment Considerations - Both Oklo and Centrus Energy are positioned to benefit from favorable tailwinds in the nuclear energy sector, but Oklo lacks a commercial product and will take two to three years before its reactor comes online [15] - Centrus Energy is established as a provider of key components used in nuclear plants, generating revenue currently, which gives it an edge in investment considerations [15]

行业复苏得益于三大因素：AI数据中心耗电量激增（OpenAI称八年需250吉瓦）、 《通胀削减法案》提供40%投资税收抵免、核监管委员会审批流程加速。微软、亚马逊 等科技巨头已签署长期核能采购协议，连曾发生事故的三哩岛核电站也更名为Crane清 洁能源中心重启运营。（驻波黑使馆经商处） 2025年行业融资规模已突破40亿美元（2020年仅为5亿）。其中：Aalo Atomics在德 州建设3700平米工厂，计划2026年实现10兆瓦微型反应堆临界测试，目标是在2027年实 现供电；Kairos Power获美国能源部3.03亿美元支持，正在田纳西州建设50兆瓦示范 堆；X-energy获伊朗裔亿万富翁Kamal Ghaffarian投资，研发气冷反应堆。 （原标题：人工智能驱动核能复兴，美国初创企业竞逐微型反应堆赛道） 波黑媒体Energetika 11月26日报道。在人工智能算力需求飙升与特朗普政府政策倾 斜的双重推动下，核能产业正迎来新一轮发展浪潮。福布斯报道称，包括Aalo Atomics、Oklo、Kairos Power在内的十余家美国初创企业正竞相研发模块化小型核反应 堆。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses a "nuclear renaissance" driven by global energy transition and decarbonization, highlighting a significant turning point in the uranium market, which is expected to enter a decade-long bull market due to structural demand and limited supply [1][2] Group 1: Demand Dynamics - The demand for uranium is projected to increase significantly, with global consumption expected to grow by over 50% by 2035, driven by a resurgence in nuclear energy as countries aim to double their nuclear power generation capacity by 2050 [1][4] - The annual compound growth rate (CAGR) for global uranium demand is forecasted to reach 3.6% from 2025 to 2030 and further accelerate to 4.9% from 2030 to 2035, with China and India contributing approximately three-quarters of this growth [4][5] - Emerging technologies, such as small modular reactors (SMRs), are anticipated to create new demand opportunities, particularly in high-energy industries like AI data centers, enhancing the narrative of a nuclear revival [4] Group 2: Supply Constraints - The uranium supply is highly concentrated, with Kazakhstan, Canada, and Namibia accounting for about 75% of global production, and the top five producers controlling approximately 75% of the market [15] - Major producers have shifted their strategy to prioritize value over volume, leading to a reluctance to increase production without sustainable long-term contracts and adequate pricing [15][8] - The supply growth is expected to average around 4% from 2025 to 2035, but significant risks exist due to regulatory challenges and financing difficulties for new projects [15][8] Group 3: Market Imbalance - A supply-demand imbalance is anticipated, with the uranium market expected to experience a mild shortage from 2025 to 2029, escalating into a "persistent and expanding deficit" in the 2030s as demand outpaces supply [10][16] - The current "contract stalemate" is characterized by utilities hesitating to sign long-term contracts due to uncertainties in the downstream nuclear fuel cycle, while producers are unwilling to commit to new supplies without long-term orders [16] - The article notes that approximately two-thirds of global utility demand for uranium over the next twenty years (around 3 billion pounds) remains uncontracted, indicating an impending large-scale inventory replenishment cycle [16]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [14]. Core Insights - The global nuclear energy sector is experiencing a revival, with significant interest in small modular reactors (SMRs) as a key solution for meeting the growing energy demands of artificial intelligence [4][5]. - China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) showcased its full industry chain capabilities at the 2025 World Nuclear Energy Exhibition (WNE), highlighting technologies such as "Hualong One" and "Linglong One," which have attracted global attention [3]. - The collaboration between CNNC and international partners, including Electricité de France, emphasizes the importance of SMR technology in promoting diversified applications of nuclear energy [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the advancements in nuclear energy, particularly focusing on the development and application of small modular reactors (SMRs) [4][5]. - The exhibition highlighted CNNC's progress in small reactor construction, which has garnered interest from global corporate executives and institutional representatives [3]. Key Companies to Watch - **Jingye Intelligent**: Collaborating with Zhejiang University to establish a joint R&D center for micro-reactor/SMR technology, showing significant growth potential in the context of global AI demand and energy transition [6]. - **Jia Electric**: The main helium fan is the only power device for the primary loop of fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, with its subsidiary leading in nuclear pump products [6]. - **Guoguang Electric**: Key components for the ITER project, focusing on filter and cladding systems [6]. - **Lanshi Heavy Industry**: Covers upstream nuclear fuel systems, midstream nuclear power plant equipment, and downstream spent fuel processing [6]. - **Kexin Electromechanical**: Manufacturing high-temperature gas-cooled reactor products, with new fuel transport containers replacing imports [6]. - **Hailu Heavy Industry**: Services various reactor types, including third and fourth-generation reactors and thermonuclear fusion reactors (ITER) [6]. - **Jiangsu Shentong**: Secured over 90% of orders for nuclear-grade butterfly valves and ball valves for new nuclear power projects in China [6].