大摩：主题优势核能复兴和天然气全球化对亚洲意味着什 么 20250821 摘要 全球核能投资预计未来 50 年将超过 2 万亿美元，主要受科技公司对清 洁能源需求驱动。核能占全球发电量约 10%，但占清洁发电量近 20%。 亚洲核能发展不平衡，中国、韩国和日本已广泛应用，而东南亚潜力巨 大。新加坡、越南和马来西亚正积极考虑小型模块化反应堆(SMRs)。 核电与天然气互补，但核电建设周期长，天然气成为更可行的能源安全 替代方案。亚太地区天然气消费量预计将以两倍于当前预期的速度增长， 2024-2030 年预计复合年增长率达 5%，2030 年将消费全球 70%的天 然气贸易量。 全球仅 2.3%的资产管理规模排斥核电，低于对酒精、军事承包等行业 的排斥。世界银行取消了对核电项目融资的禁令，欧盟、中国和日本已 将核电纳入绿色分类法。 超大规模数据中心愿意为稳定电力供应支付溢价，美国市场溢价约为 30-50 美元/兆瓦时，利好美国核电公用事业。东南亚、欧洲和中国尚未 观察到类似溢价。 Q&A 核电在全球能源格局中的角色如何演变？ 核电如今已不再是一个陌生的概念，而是一个重要的大趋势。过去核电曾被视 为有争议和资本密 ...

Company and Industry Insights - Li Qiang emphasized the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market and expand effective investment, aiming to enhance domestic consumption and foster new growth points in service consumption [4][8] - The first batch of brokerage firms reported their semi-annual results, with five firms showing growth in both revenue and net profit, driven by a low base effect [14] - Morgan Stanley reported that the revival of nuclear energy in the U.S. is underway, with small modular reactors (SMRs) becoming a key direction for overcoming development bottlenecks [17] - JD.com is expected to exit the price war in Q3 due to financial pressures, while Alibaba is prepared for a prolonged battle, and Meituan faces significant challenges with declining market share and profits [15] - Novo Nordisk announced a reduction in the monthly price of semaglutide to $499, aiming to improve accessibility for uninsured patients, which led to a significant stock price increase [11] - The approval of Wegovy for treating metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASH) by the FDA positions Novo Nordisk favorably in the competitive GLP-1 drug market [11]

从政策端看，美国联邦与州政府正持续加码对核能的扶持。无论是税收优惠、补贴政策，还是简化审批 流程，都在为核能项目的推进铺路。这种自上而下的推动，打破了此前核能发展 "雷声大、雨点小" 的困 境，为行业注入了确定性。 从市场端看，一个显著的变化是 核能在数据中心的应用快速普及 。随着人工智能、云计算等产业爆发， 数据中心对稳定、高效、低碳的电力需求激增。核能作为零碳排放的基荷能源，能够 24 小时不间断供 电，完美匹配数据中心的 "永不停机" 需求。这种场景化的需求爆发，正在为核能打开全新的增长空间。 大型项目的 "成长烦恼" 大摩报告指出，大型新建核电项目仍面临挑战，建设周期长、成本控制难等问题尚未完全解决。但与此同 时，核电机组的延寿、重启项目推进迅速，小型模块化反应堆（SMRs）因建设周期短、前期成本较低等 优势，成为突破发展瓶颈的关键方向。从长期容量看，在 "核能复兴" 情景下，美国核能总容量预计将显 著提升至 150GW，相关产业链也将受益。 当全球能源转型进入深水区，核能正从争议的阴影中走出，迎来新一轮发展机遇。 据追风交易台，摩根士丹利最新研报明确表示，美国的核能复兴趋势已逐渐清晰，这不仅将重塑美 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses advancements in the **robotics industry** and the **nuclear energy sector**. [1][8] Robotics Industry Insights - **Expansion of Applications**: Intelligent robots are transitioning from industrial manufacturing to commercial services, showcasing potential in tasks like room cleaning, folding clothes, and selling popcorn. [1][2][5] - **Technological Improvements**: Significant enhancements in operational control and hardware capabilities were noted, with improvements in the fluidity of movements in boxing and soccer robots, as well as stability in dancing robots. [2] - **Development Bottlenecks**: Key challenges include data collection and model training, with ongoing debates about the use of virtual versus real data for training. Dexterous hands require further optimization in speed, efficiency, accuracy, and consistency. [3][4] - **Market Drivers**: The second half of the year is expected to drive the robotics sector as companies actively pursue commercial orders. [6] - **Upcoming Events**: The World Robot Sports Conference will showcase current robotic capabilities and applications, aiding in understanding the industry's status and potential. [6] - **Investor Sentiment**: Positive outlook on the robotics sector, particularly with the potential showcasing of new technologies and companies with strong sales potential, such as Yushu and Zhiyuan. [7] Nuclear Energy Sector Insights - **Revival Trends**: A significant revival in nuclear energy is underway, supported by increased policy backing, with nuclear stocks outperforming MSCI ACWI by approximately 30 percentage points. [8] - **Future Projections**: By 2050, global nuclear power capacity is projected to grow from 398 GW to 860 GW, with an investment exceeding $2 trillion, primarily in China, India, and the U.S. [3][8] - **Key Growth Areas**: The U.S. has committed to building 300 GW of nuclear capacity, with a target of achieving 150 GW. [3][8] - **Investment Opportunities**: Notable companies in the nuclear sector include CGN, NTPC, and LNT, with a focus on utility companies. [10] - **Global Trends**: Three major trends are identified: 1. Increased demand for clean energy from tech giants and data centers. 2. Geopolitical factors favoring South Korean companies in certain regions. 3. Long-term technological advancements, including small modular reactors (SMR) and fourth-generation reactors. [9] Additional Noteworthy Points - **ESG Considerations**: The proportion of ESG funds excluding nuclear energy is decreasing, currently around 2%. [8] - **Market Dynamics**: The financing environment is favorable, with initiatives like green bonds in South Korea. [8] - **Potential Winners**: Companies like Curtis Wright, Even Nova, and Rolls Royce are highlighted for their potential in long-term technological advancements in nuclear energy. [9][10]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - Significant increase in global nuclear power investment, expected to exceed 2.2 trillion yuan, a substantial rise from last year's forecast of 1.5 trillion yuan [1][2] - Nuclear power equipment and plant segments show outstanding performance, with total returns exceeding 60%, while related stocks have a total return rate over 40%, significantly outperforming the MSCI Global Index [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - China's policy shift to combat deflation since September 2024 includes direct measures to curb vicious competition and stimulate demand, aiming for a balanced economy towards consumption [1][4] - The trend of capital migration is evident, with institutions like insurance companies moving from fixed income to equity investments, and households replacing time deposits with equity-exposed financial products, contributing to market rebounds despite weak economic fundamentals [1][5] - Policymakers are addressing excessive market participants and price wars through supply-side reforms combined with demand stimulation, with national support measures for childbirth and education already introduced [1][7] - The Hang Seng Index has significantly outperformed the CSI 300 this year, suggesting a recommendation to overweight offshore Chinese stocks due to higher concentration in quality industries and stronger profitability growth [1][8] Additional Important Content - The global nuclear power capacity is expected to grow significantly, with China projected to add 370 GW by 2050, making it a key player in the nuclear energy sector [2][3] - The report highlights 65 investment opportunities related to the global nuclear theme, including power generation, uranium mining, and equipment manufacturing [2] - The current market conditions indicate a divergence between onshore and offshore markets, with the Hang Seng Index achieving a 28% return compared to approximately 10% for the CSI 300 [8] - Active funds are facing outflows, with liquidity indices remaining in negative territory, but the offshore Hong Kong market is expected to benefit from favorable dollar trends [12] - Antitrust actions are expected to take longer to show improvements in ROE and earnings growth compared to previous supply-side reforms, as they are more market-oriented rather than administrative [11]

证券研究报告 能源/基础材料 美国缺电预期走强,重申核能机 | 华泰研究 | 能源 | 增符 (维持) | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年7月24日 中国内地 动态点评 | 有色金属 | 增持 (维持) | | 缺电预期叠加 A 提速,重申看好美国核能发展机遇 | 刘俊 | 研究员 | | 立 自5月23日美国特朗普总统连发四份总统令推动美国核工业振兴以来, | SAC No. S0570523110003 | karlliu@htsc.com | | | SFC No. AVM464 | +(852) 3658 6000 | | 业积极因素持续累积。近期美国 PJM 电力市场容量招标再度顶格出清,激 | | | | 发了市场对美国缺电和基荷电源建设的关注;叠加特朗普"Al 国策"中重 | 苗雨菲 | 研究员 | | 点强调电源基础设施建设以及核裂变、核聚变等新兴能源技术开发,我们看 | SAC No. S0570523120005 | miaoyufei@htsc.com | | | SFC No. BTM578 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | | 好美国核电增容、重启 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Cameco's stock has increased over 80% in the last three months, reflecting strong market confidence, with a current price of $76.19 and a price target of $80.65 from analysts [1][8] - The company has a P/E ratio of 190.49, indicating high market expectations for future growth [1][13] Group 2: Market Trends - There is a global resurgence in nuclear power driven by the need for clean energy sources, energy security, and increased electricity demand from AI technologies [3][4][5] - The underinvestment in uranium supply has created a structural market deficit, suggesting a favorable pricing environment for uranium producers like Cameco [5][6] Group 3: Financial Strength - Cameco has a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15, indicating a strong balance sheet and financial discipline [12] - The company operates some of the world's largest and highest-grade uranium mines, targeting production of 18 million pounds from key operations in 2025 [12] Group 4: Strategic Advantages - Cameco's 49% stake in Westinghouse Electric Company enhances its growth potential, transitioning it from a pure-play miner to a vertically integrated nuclear energy leader [8][9] - Westinghouse is projected to grow its adjusted EBITDA by 6% to 10% annually over the next five years, contributing significantly to Cameco's profitability [10] Group 5: Investment Case - The investment case for Cameco is supported by a favorable macro environment, a de-risked core business, and transformative growth through Westinghouse [16] - Analysts expect substantial earnings growth, as indicated by a forward P/E ratio of 58.91, reflecting the company's unique market position [14][15]

Group 1: Electric Vehicles in the UK - The UK government plans to introduce new incentives to promote electric vehicle sales, including up to £700 million (approximately $948 million) in subsidies to reduce the cost for buyers [2][5] - The UK aims to phase out the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2030 and hybrid cars by 2035, with a significant investment of £630 million to build charging stations across the country [6] - In the first half of 2025, UK electric vehicle sales increased by 34.6%, reaching 224,800 units, indicating a strong market growth [7][8] Group 2: Nuclear Energy Developments in China - China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) announced the successful production of the first barrel of uranium from the "National Uranium No. 1" demonstration project, marking a breakthrough in domestic uranium production [10] - The "National Uranium No. 1" project utilizes innovative in-situ leaching technology, which is more environmentally friendly and cost-effective compared to traditional mining methods [10] - The global nuclear energy sector is experiencing a revival, with China leading in the number of operational and under-construction nuclear power units, indicating a strategic resurgence in the nuclear industry [11][12] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Nuclear Energy - Analysts suggest that the nuclear energy sector is entering a phase of investment value reassessment, with increasing global focus on nuclear power as a stable and clean energy source [12][13] - The nuclear power industry is expected to play a crucial role in energy transition and carbon neutrality efforts, with significant demand for uranium and related technologies [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the power grid and industrial control sectors is expected to continue in the first half of 2025, with potential opportunities for performance and valuation recovery in the second half of the year [1] Power Grid Sector - Domestic power grid investment showed strong growth in the first five months of 2025, with a total investment of 204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8% [5] - The approval pace for ultra-high voltage projects is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, with significant projects already approved [7] - The demand for ultra-high voltage equipment remains strong, with a projected annual growth rate of around 10% for power grid investment from 2024 to 2026 [10] - The first half of 2025 saw a robust demand for primary network investments, with a notable increase in bidding amounts for key equipment [10] Industrial Control Sector - The industrial control market has shown signs of recovery, with the OEM market experiencing a 3.3% year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first positive growth in three years [24] - The demand for new technologies, particularly in automation and robotics, is expected to enhance profitability and valuation flexibility for industrial control companies [3] - The overall capital expenditure momentum remains slightly subdued, but a narrow fluctuation in the new cycle is anticipated [18] Investment Themes - Focus on new productive forces, including AIDC and humanoid robots, which are expected to bring significant valuation elasticity [3] - The revival of nuclear energy is highlighted, with a focus on nuclear power equipment and small modular reactors (SMR) as key investment areas [48] - The overseas market for power grid investment is projected to maintain high growth, driven by energy transition and grid upgrades, with a 14.4% year-on-year increase expected in 2024 [4] Nuclear Energy Sector - The global nuclear power industry is experiencing a strategic revival, with significant investments and approvals in various countries, including China and the U.S. [49] - The demand for nuclear energy is increasing due to the need for stable, low-carbon baseload power, with a focus on SMR and controlled nuclear fusion technologies [62] - The nuclear power sector is expected to see a re-evaluation of its investment value as countries prioritize energy security and decarbonization [61]

Group 1: Artificial Intelligence - Artificial intelligence is viewed as a "golden goose," significantly contributing to the returns of major US stocks like Apple and Microsoft, with profit growth rates far exceeding other stocks, driving the S&P 500 index to rise over 20% for two consecutive years [2] - Companies like Nvidia dominate the AI infrastructure sector, with data center investments surging, and their data center revenue share expected to approach historical peaks by 2026 [2] - However, the high costs of training AI models and the risk of over-investment pose challenges, as evidenced by the performance of Corning's fiber optics business post-dot-com bubble [2] Group 2: Nuclear Energy - Investor optimism about nuclear power has led to stock price increases, supported by new US legislation aimed at accelerating nuclear development, such as the Advance Act which simplifies approval processes [3] - Despite this, significant cost overruns in nuclear projects, exemplified by the delays and instability of the Vogtle 3 nuclear plant in Georgia, raise concerns about the sector's viability [3] - The potential of small modular reactors remains unproven, with no such projects expected to commence in the US by 2025, and new nuclear designs still facing commercialization hurdles [3] Group 3: US Policy - The "Alchemist" policy includes regulatory rollbacks, tariff adjustments, and tax cuts, which could enhance productivity but contrasts sharply with the Biden administration's regulatory increases [4] - Imposing a 60% tariff on China and implementing broad tariffs could hinder US GDP growth, with potential retaliatory measures from China exacerbating trade tensions [4] - Challenges in reducing government spending persist, as welfare expenditures are high and discretionary spending is at a low, complicating efforts to cut the budget [4] Group 4: China - China faces liquidity challenges, including declining money supply growth, reduced loan demand, and an underperforming real estate market [5] - The intensifying US-China competition, particularly in technology and trade, poses risks to the valuation ceiling of MSCI China stocks, especially with restrictions on advanced chip supplies to China [5] Group 5: Europe - Europe's labor productivity lags behind the US, with high energy prices suppressing manufacturing output, particularly in energy-intensive industries [6] - The Eurozone's "one-size-fits-all" policy struggles to accommodate the diverse needs of member states, leading to lower corporate profitability compared to the US [6] Group 6: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin's price rebound in 2024 is attributed to the US SEC's approval of spot ETFs, alongside a growing number of cryptocurrency account holders [7] - However, trading-centric tokens and decentralized finance activities remain highly speculative and closely tied to cryptocurrency price fluctuations, with US government support for the sector linked to political donations [7]