AI板块拥挤度
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中金 | 量化观察:AI板块是否拥挤?
中金点睛· 2025-11-30 23:49
Core Viewpoint - The AI sector currently shows a relatively low level of crowding risk, indicating potential investment opportunities in the long term, while short-term strategies may favor value styles [4][42][43]. Group 1: AI Sector Crowding Analysis - The crowding score for the AI sector has decreased from a high point in September 2025, reflecting a return to a safer range, with no current crowding signals triggered [2][29][43]. - The crowding monitoring model includes five observational indicators: returns, trading volume, trading structure, valuation, and market sentiment, which collectively indicate a low risk of crowding in the AI sector [2][6][43]. - The AI-related indices, such as the STAR 50 Index and the CSI AI Theme Index, have shown a significant drop in crowding scores, suggesting that the previous high trading enthusiasm has subsided [8][22][29]. Group 2: Style Rotation Model - The style rotation model for 2025 has a high success rate, achieving a monthly win rate of 73% as of November 27, 2025, effectively capturing important style momentum and switching points [3][37]. - Short-term recommendations lean towards value styles due to current market dynamics, while long-term growth styles still hold potential for development [3][41]. - The model indicates that macroeconomic factors, such as a narrowing year-on-year decline in PPI, favor value styles in the short term, while growth styles may benefit from optimistic long-term economic expectations [41]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The AI sector's crowding risk has been alleviated, and there are still long-term growth opportunities, although value styles may have a relative advantage in the short term [4][42][43]. - Institutional investors are likely to adopt defensive strategies as year-end approaches, which may further support the preference for value styles [44].