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2025年春季汽车行业投资策略:内需与Ai共振,智能化商业变现贡献估值弹性
申万宏源· 2025-03-10 03:38
Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the automotive industry, highlighting significant growth potential driven by domestic demand and advancements in AI technology [1][3]. Core Insights - The automotive sector has shown a strong performance, with the index rising 13.1% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 12.6 percentage points [6][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "smart driving" era, predicting a substantial increase in the penetration of advanced driving assistance systems (ADAS) in the market [6][57]. - The report forecasts that the total sales of passenger vehicles in China will reach 28.74 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4% [40][41]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date increase of 13.1% [6][13]. - The report notes a slight decrease in fund holdings in the automotive sector, with a total holding of 3.88% as of Q4 2024 [18]. - Passenger vehicle wholesale sales reached 27.55 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.91% [19][20]. Complete Vehicles - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to activate market demand, potentially adding over 2 million units in 2025 [28][31]. - The report highlights that the market is shifting towards models priced below 150,000 yuan, with increased subsidies expected to drive growth in this segment [31][36]. - The introduction of high-level intelligent configurations in vehicles priced above 100,000 yuan is anticipated to influence consumer purchasing decisions significantly [48][49]. Components - The report identifies a significant increase in the demand for components related to smart driving, such as cameras and advanced driving chips [6][72]. - The trend of "smart driving equity" is expected to lead to a notable increase in the use of sensors and components in vehicles [6][72]. - Key players in the component sector, such as Desay SV and BYD Electronics, are highlighted as beneficiaries of this trend [6][72].