盈利预测与估值 机构：中金公司 我们看好公司延续盈利改善趋势，谨慎上调2025/2026 年归母净利润3%/4%至36.2 亿元/42.6 亿元。当前 股价对应25/26 年P/E 21.9 倍/18.4倍。我们维持跑赢行业评级和目标价99.2 港元，对应25/26 年P/E 27.4 倍/23.0 倍，较当前股价涨幅25%。 研究员：温晗静/何欣怡/贾顺鹤/彭虎/李澄宁/查玉洁/江磊 1H25 业绩小幅超出我们和市场预期 舜宇光学公布2025 年中报：上半年收入196.5 亿元，同/环比+4%/+1%；归母净利润16.5 亿元，同/环比 +53%/+2%。业绩小幅超出我们和市场预期，主要由于：1）盈利能力改善明显。得益于手机镜头和手 机摄像模组的高端产品占比提高，以及较高毛利率的车载业务增速较快，1H25 公司毛利率19.8%，同/ 环比+2.6ppt/+0.5ppt，其中，光电产品毛利率为10.6%，同/环比+2.4ppt/+0.8ppt，光学零件毛利率为 31.0%，同/环比-0.8ppt/-1.0ppt；2）分占联营公司业绩同比增加约1.0 亿元。 发展趋势 手机光学升级持续，公司延续产品结构优化策略 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intense competition and challenges within the Chinese automotive industry in July 2025, highlighting various industry leaders' statements and actions that reflect the sector's collective anxiety regarding transformation and market dynamics [5]. Group 1: NIO's Financial Transparency and Strategy - NIO's CEO Li Bin addressed the company's cumulative losses exceeding 100 billion RMB, emphasizing that the financial reports are transparent and clean, with losses primarily attributed to R&D and charging infrastructure investments [8][9]. - Li Bin compared NIO's financial approach to household renovations, stating that the company fully expenses R&D costs rather than amortizing them over time, which contributes to the perception of high losses [9][12]. - He criticized the industry's trend of increasing vehicle weight due to larger batteries, arguing that heavier vehicles cause more damage to roads and pose safety challenges [12][13]. Group 2: Huawei's Marketing Reflection - Huawei's executive Yu Chengdong clarified a misunderstanding regarding a "driving while sleeping" incident, using the opportunity to reflect on the company's marketing shortcomings and the need for better communication of product features [15][16]. Group 3: Great Wall's Recruitment Initiative - Great Wall's Chairman Wei Jianjun launched a "35+ recruitment campaign," promoting the idea that being over 35 is not a career dead-end but a new beginning, aiming to combat age-related anxiety in the workforce [19][20]. - This initiative reflects a broader recognition of the value of experienced employees in the automotive industry's transformation [19]. Group 4: Industry Warnings and Concerns - Bosch's executive Wu Yongqiao warned that offering high-level intelligent driving features for free could lead to a disaster for the industry, as it undermines the financial viability of R&D investments [36][37]. - He highlighted the contradiction of declining profits amidst rising revenues, urging the industry to adopt sustainable business models that allow for the recovery of R&D costs [37][38]. Group 5: Chery's Candidness on Industry Practices - Chery's Chairman Yin Tongyue openly discussed the company's cautious approach to technology and market competition, criticizing the industry's price wars and advocating for a more dignified international presence [25][26]. - He emphasized the importance of maintaining a positive image for Chinese automotive brands abroad and avoiding destructive competition [26][27]. Group 6: New Developments in the Automotive Sector - The establishment of the new China Chang'an Automobile Group marks a significant development in the industry, with ambitions to achieve a production and sales scale of 5 million vehicles by 2030, focusing on electric vehicles [40][41]. - The new entity aims to leverage its substantial resources and capabilities to become a top global automotive brand [41].

Core Insights - The smart driving sector is experiencing a "land grab" phase as major players prepare for an imminent explosion in advanced intelligent driving technology [2] - BMW China has partnered with Momenta to develop a China-specific intelligent driving solution, marking another instance of collaboration between automakers and intelligent driving companies [2][4] - The development model for intelligent driving has shifted towards collaboration between automakers and intelligent driving solution providers, moving away from the previous focus on in-house development [2][5] Industry Dynamics - Several intelligent driving solution companies, including Huawei, Momenta, and Horizon Robotics, have emerged as leaders in the field, each forming partnerships with various automakers [3][8] - The competition has intensified, with a notable shift towards high-level intelligent driving capabilities, as "point-to-point" driving becomes the new benchmark for assessing advanced driving capabilities [6][8] - The trend of "intelligent driving equality" is emerging, with leading automakers like BYD pushing for widespread adoption of intelligent driving technologies, putting pressure on slower-moving companies [5][6] Company Collaborations - BMW began recruiting suppliers for advanced driver assistance systems in early 2025, with Momenta winning the bid [4] - Automakers are increasingly opting to collaborate with leading intelligent driving solution providers to quickly address their technological gaps [5][6] - Momenta has secured partnerships with major luxury brands, including BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi, enhancing its credibility in the market [7] Market Positioning - Momenta has achieved significant market share, with 60.1% in the domestic third-party intelligent driving supplier market, followed by Huawei with 29.8% [7] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with a focus on deepening partnerships between automakers and intelligent driving suppliers, moving towards equity-based collaborations [9] - Companies like Lightyear and Yuanrong Qixing are gaining traction, with Lightyear aiming for a million units of advanced driving solutions by 2025 [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Huawei and SAIC Group in launching the new car brand "Shangjie" indicates a significant step in the automotive industry, particularly in the integration of advanced driving technologies [1] Group 1 - The Shangjie automobile brand released a promotional poster on July 11, signaling its upcoming product launch [1] - Huawei's Executive Director, Yu Chengdong, shared the poster and hinted at the new vehicle's features, emphasizing its advanced driving capabilities [1] - The new car is expected to be launched in the autumn of this year, showcasing Huawei's high-level intelligent driving technology [1]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Automotive Industry and Companies Industry Overview - The new energy vehicle (NEV) sector experienced a 30% growth in the first half of the year, but penetration rates were lower than expected, hovering between 50% and 52% due to price wars [1][4] - Policy and regulatory interventions are expected to alleviate price war pressures, benefiting NEV companies with strong product capabilities [1][4] - The overall automotive industry is anticipated to enter an upward cycle in the second half of the year, driven by new vehicle launches and improved market sentiment [3] Key Companies to Watch - Companies such as Li Auto, Geely, Xiaomi, and BYD are favored in the automotive sector due to their strong competitiveness in the new vehicle cycle and potential for overseas expansion [1][5] - XPeng's advancements in intelligent driving and chip applications present new opportunities worth monitoring [1][5] - BYD, SAIC, Geely, and other enterprises are noted for their performance in overseas markets, where profits are higher than in the domestic market [2][16] Sales and Inventory Insights - Overall vehicle sales were strong, with June wholesale volumes exceeding 2 million units, reflecting a 25% year-on-year increase [6] - NEVs maintained a 30% growth rate, while inventory levels have decreased from a peak earlier in the year to relatively low levels by July [6] Future Projections - The penetration rate of advanced intelligent driving (IA) in urban areas is expected to rise from 9% in 2024 to over 15% by May 2025, with projections to double to over 30% by 2026 [10] - The NEV penetration rate in China is currently around 46%, with expectations to reach 65%-70% in the future, indicating significant growth potential [12] Policy and Market Dynamics - Policy subsidies are projected to maintain a 4% growth rate in vehicle registrations for the year, although growth may slow in the second half due to high base effects [8] - The market is expected to see a "rush installation effect" and strong new vehicle cycles, potentially leading to record-high sales in the latter half of the year [9] Export Trends - China's NEV exports account for approximately 30% of total overseas sales, with pure electric vehicles making up 33% and plug-in hybrids 13% [15] - The European market is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for NEV penetration to rise from 20% to 32%, providing significant opportunities for Chinese automakers [15] Emerging Opportunities - The ultra-luxury automotive market presents notable opportunities, particularly for Jianghuai, which is expected to become a significant profit source in the coming years [22] - Companies like Geely and Li Auto are accelerating their new vehicle layouts, with SAIC and Great Wall also set to launch new models soon [20] Market Sentiment - The automotive industry is currently in a phase of pessimistic expectations, with price stabilization and a rebound in beta [23] - Strong vehicle cycles are anticipated to provide upward opportunities, suggesting a favorable window for automotive development [23]

Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" [2][13]. Core Insights - The automotive sector experienced a slight increase of +0.1% this week, with the A-share automotive index closing at 6,947.9 points, ranking 25 out of 31 sectors, while the CSI 300 index rose by +1.5% to 3,982.2 points [2][4]. - The top-performing stocks in the A-share automotive sector this week included Taotao Automotive (+29.8%), Hunan Tianyan (+21.0%), and Zhengyu Industrial (+18.3%) [2][7]. - New energy vehicle sales are expected to benefit from seasonal consumption activities, particularly in lower-tier markets [2]. - The sales performance of new energy vehicle brands is influenced by pricing strategies in the short term, while product intelligence will be a key factor in the long term [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector's weekly performance was +0.1%, with sub-sectors showing varied results: motorcycles and others (+5.1%), commercial vehicles (+1.5%), automotive services (+1.1%), passenger vehicles (+0.4%), and automotive parts (-0.7%) [2][6]. - The cumulative sales data for the first half of 2025 indicates that Xpeng Motors achieved a completion rate of 56.3% of its annual sales target, while other brands like Li Auto and NIO lagged behind [2]. Key Developments - Xpeng G7 was launched with a strong initial response, achieving over 10,000 pre-orders in just 9 minutes, indicating its potential as a hot-selling model [2]. - The G7 features advanced computing capabilities with a total vehicle computing power of 2,250 TOPS, which is expected to enhance user experience and differentiate it from competitors [2]. - JD Logistics introduced its self-developed unmanned logistics vehicle, which is anticipated to accelerate the development of unmanned logistics vehicles [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading smart automotive brands like Xiaomi Group and Xpeng Motors, which are expected to establish user experience differentiation [3]. - In the automotive parts sector, attention is drawn to companies transitioning from single component suppliers to integrated system providers, such as Baolong Technology [3]. - The report also highlights the growing demand for testing and inspection services due to the rapid development of smart vehicles, recommending companies like China Automotive Research [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the automotive industry, particularly focusing on the mid-to-high-end market and strong alpha companies [3][4]. Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is transitioning between the third and fourth consumption eras, with a notable expansion in mid-to-large SUVs and personalized products, indicating untapped consumer potential [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative supply to stimulate market demand, highlighting products like Yu7, Zun Jie S800, and upcoming models from Li Auto as key drivers [4]. - The report suggests continued attention to strong alpha manufacturers such as Li Auto, JAC, Xiaomi, and Seres, as well as their corresponding supply chain companies [4]. Industry Update - Retail sales of passenger cars reached 570,000 units in the 26th week of 2025, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.38%. Traditional energy vehicles sold approximately 274,000 units, down 7.43%, while new energy vehicles sold 296,000 units, up 4.96%, achieving a penetration rate of 51.93% [4]. - The automotive industry experienced a total transaction value of 425.645 billion yuan this week, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.01% [4]. - The automotive industry index rose by 0.10% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.54%, indicating that the automotive sector's performance was below the broader market [11]. Market Conditions - The report notes that 123 automotive stocks rose while 159 fell this week, with the largest gainers being TaoTao Automotive, Hunan Tianyan, and Zhengyu Industrial, which saw increases of 29.8%, 21.0%, and 18.3%, respectively [15]. - Key events include the launch of the Xiaopeng G7, which exceeded pricing expectations and features advanced autonomous driving capabilities, and the opening of BYD's factory in Brazil, enhancing its presence in the Latin American market [5][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic strong alpha manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, and Xiaopeng, as well as companies involved in the trend of smart technology, including Jianghuai Automobile and Seres [4]. - It also suggests monitoring state-owned enterprise reforms, particularly with SAIC Motor, and identifying component manufacturers with strong growth potential, such as Fuyao Glass and New Spring [4]. Key Events - Xiaopeng G7 was launched with a starting price of 195,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities and a significant increase in autonomous driving performance [5][41]. - BYD's new factory in Brazil aims for an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles, with plans to expand to 300,000 units, marking a significant step in its global strategy [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain its cost advantages in vehicle manufacturing, with brand integration driving operational efficiency. The forecasted revenue for 2025-2027 is CNY 336.7 billion, CNY 368.5 billion, and CNY 395.6 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 40%, 10%, and 7% respectively. The net profit forecast for the same period is CNY 15.2 billion, CNY 17.8 billion, and CNY 21.7 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -8%, 17%, and 22% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9.6, 8.3, and 6.8 for 2025-2027 [7][10]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Acceleration and Strategic Transformation - The company has entered the 4.0 era of vehicle manufacturing, focusing on new energy and high-end models. The brand matrix includes four major brands: Geely, Galaxy, Zeekr, and Lynk & Co, covering various market segments and energy types [19][20][22]. 2. Galaxy: Platformization Ensures Cost-Effectiveness - The GEA architecture is designed for new energy vehicles, enhancing safety and performance. The Galaxy brand has seen significant sales growth, with models like E5 and Star Wish achieving monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units [36][44]. 3. Zeekr Technology: Balanced Product Strength - Zeekr's SEA architecture supports a wide range of vehicle types, from sedans to SUVs. The brand has successfully launched models that cater to both high-end and mainstream markets, establishing a strong brand presence [52][57]. 4. Oil Vehicles: Competitive Pricing Maintained - The main brand continues to offer competitive pricing in the oil vehicle segment, contributing to stable revenue and profit generation. The company is also expanding its export capabilities, leveraging its global production footprint [9][10][25]. 5. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts indicate a strong growth trajectory, with a projected revenue of CNY 336.7 billion in 2025 and a net profit of CNY 15.2 billion. The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reflecting operational efficiencies from brand integration [10][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the "old-for-new" policy in 2025, which is anticipated to support upward consumer spending on vehicles [15] - The report highlights the strong performance of the automotive sector, with a notable increase in sales and market activity, particularly in the context of new product launches and strategic organizational changes within key companies [15][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Dynamics - Xiaomi's YU7 SUV achieved over 240,000 pre-orders within 18 hours of its launch, indicating strong market interest [13] - Li Auto revised its second-quarter delivery forecast to approximately 108,000 vehicles, down from a previous estimate of 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles, reflecting adjustments in its sales strategy [14] Market Performance - From June 23 to June 27, the automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with the automotive index rising by 2.9% compared to the index's 1.9% increase [16] - The report notes that the performance of individual automotive stocks varied, with notable gains for companies like Li Auto and declines for others like Geely [16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies poised to benefit from the high-end market segment, including Li Auto, JAC Motors, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors [15] - It also highlights opportunities in advanced driving technologies and robotics, suggesting investments in companies like XPeng Motors, Huayang Group, and Desay SV [15] - For commercial vehicles, it anticipates a recovery in demand for heavy trucks in 2025, recommending leading companies such as Foton Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [15]

招商证券研报指出，智能化正逐渐成为汽车产业竞争关键，2025- 2 0 3 0年是高阶智驾的高 速发展期，可以类比2 0 1 0 - 2 016年智能手机的高速发展态势。在此期间以城区NOA为代表 的高阶智驾将快速渗透，同时智能汽车市场竞争洗牌加剧，汽车行业集中度将进一步提 升，具备核心技术和生态优势的科技型企业最具备竞争力，国内智能汽车产业链享有更好 的政策、产业链配套、成本等优势，有望诞生出一批有国际竞争力的企业。 同时，合资车企也陆续宣布与国内智驾产业链厂商合作补齐智驾短板，降本加速追赶智驾 渗透进程。 对此，业内认为 高阶智驾仍存渗透率提升空间，且1 0 - 2 0万车型为国内乘用车销量主力， 2 0 24年销量占比为49%，比亚迪带动自主品牌向更低价格带车型装载高阶智驾，打开高 阶智驾国内高速成长空间。 二、汽车智能化带动汽车产业链价值量提升 财联社6月24日电，商务部办公厅发布《关于组织开展2025年千县万镇新能源汽车消费季 活动的通知》。其中提出，各地要因地制宜推进汽车流通消费改革试点工作，推动新能源 汽车消费季活动与试点创建工作有机结合。谋划开展智能网联新能源汽车专场推介、试驾 体验等活动，在 ...