本报告仅供华金证券客户中的专业投资者参考 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 核心观点 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 2 证券研究报告 汽车/行业深度报告 领先大市（维持） 线控底盘：解锁高阶智驾，迈入放量周期 智能驾驶专题系列（一） 分析师：黄程保 SAC执业证书编号：S0910525040002 2026年2月27日 u 线控底盘是实现高阶智驾的必备技术之一，在智驾加速渗透中放量在即。线控底盘成为智能电动汽车实现差异化体验与 技术迭代的关键，推动汽车从机械向线控驱动变革，其核心价值在于突破传统机械底盘的性能边界，借助传感器实时感 知、算法动态决策与执行机构精准响应，为高阶智能驾驶提供精准可靠的执行能力。根据亿欧智库预计，2025年中国乘 用车智能底盘市场规模将达到466亿元，2030年将达到1171亿元，2025-2030CAGR为20.24%，呈现快速渗透态势。 u 在线控底盘中，重点关注线控制动/转向。在线控底盘的五大系统中，线控制动、转向、悬架开发难度高，外资占据主导 地位。从市场渗透率看，线控驱动已经接近标配水平，线控转向、线控悬架渗透率尚处起步阶段，线控制动、线控换挡 正处于大规模商业 ...

春节假期，国内汽车消费与出行市场迎来双重爆发。北京商报记者实地走访各大汽车品牌销售门店发 现，随着新一轮国补开启，线下咨询、试驾的消费者络绎不绝，目前汽车市场已形成"国补+区域补贴 +厂促"的多重让利体系，激活了春节购车需求。与此同时，新能源租车订单量暴涨，占比首次突破四 成。随着补能网络的完善，在冰雪景观目的地中，新能源车型的身影也逐步显现。 业内人士指出，2026年汽车市场将步入总量稳增、结构优化的高质量发展阶段，新能源汽车将成为绝对 增长引擎。同时，技术标准升级将倒逼落后产能出清，推动行业向技术领先型企业集中。 多重政策拉动，购车热度升温 "我一个人每天就要接待七八位到店咨询的消费者，春节假期的咨询量比平时大很多。"北京合生汇乐道 汽车门店销售人员向北京商报记者表示，在国家补贴、区域补贴以及厂家补贴等优惠助力下，春节期间 门店整体客流量有明显攀升。 目前，新一轮汽车以旧换新补贴申请窗口已经开通，开票价超过18.8万元的车型可以享受1.5万元的置换 补贴。今年春节前夕，国家层面汽车消费支持政策全面落地。商务部等8部门联合印发《2026年汽车以 旧换新补贴实施细则》，自1月1日起正式执行，报废旧车购买新能源 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The commercialization of L3 autonomous driving has reached a turning point, transitioning from "optional" to "preferred" [1][14] - The approval of L3 licenses marks a significant shift from technical validation to operational readiness, establishing a clear regulatory framework [14] - The competitive landscape has evolved from hardware specifications to a focus on end-to-end models driven by data and algorithms, enhancing industry concentration [1][20] Summary by Sections 1. Commercialization of L3 Autonomous Driving - The dual approval of operational licenses and road rights has established a commercial closure for L3 autonomous driving, with clear responsibilities defined [14] - User perception of intelligent driving has matured, with advanced features becoming a key factor in purchasing decisions, as 60% of consumers view autonomous driving as the most anticipated technological breakthrough [16][17] - The paradigm of intelligent driving is shifting towards an end-to-end model, where the core competitive logic is now based on data quality, computational power, and model iteration efficiency [20][21] 2. Huawei's QianKun Intelligent Driving - Huawei's QianKun Intelligent Driving has evolved from a single supplier to a public technology platform, enhancing its market position [30][45] - The company has developed a multi-tiered cooperation model, including component supply, HI mode, and Harmony Intelligent Driving, to cover various market segments [31][32] - The QianKun Intelligent Driving system has undergone significant iterations, establishing a technological moat centered around end-to-end models [36] 3. Independent Entity "Yinwang" - The establishment of Yinwang as an independent entity has alleviated concerns among automakers regarding technology control, allowing for broader collaboration [41][42] - The strategic partnership with automakers has led to a valuation of 115 billion RMB, positioning Yinwang as a unicorn in the industry [45] - Yinwang aims to become a neutral public platform for the smart electric vehicle industry, similar to Bosch's role in the traditional automotive sector [48][49] 4. Hardware Cost Breakdown - The cost of intelligent driving hardware per vehicle exceeds 10,000 RMB, with significant portions attributed to chips and PCB components [2][3] - The potential market space for various components in the intelligent driving supply chain is substantial, with estimates reaching billions in growth opportunities [2] 5. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in advanced process wafer fabs, packaging and testing companies, and PCB manufacturers, highlighting the growth potential in the intelligent driving sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the lidar industry Core Insights - The lidar market is experiencing significant growth, with a 71% increase in shipments in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, reaching 1,002,000 units in China [6][12][7] - The technology development trends indicate that 905nm light sources remain dominant, with VCSEL becoming a core component in new lidar designs, and solid-state lidar is expected to become the mainstream technology path [13][14][15] - The competitive landscape is highly concentrated, with the top three companies (Hesai Technology, Huawei Technology, and Suteng Juchuang) holding over 90% market share in the first half of 2025 [18][19] Summary by Sections Lidar Types - Lidar can be categorized based on scanning methods (mechanical, semi-solid, solid-state) and working principles (ToF, CW, FMCW) [2][3] Market Growth - The lidar market is witnessing explosive growth, particularly in automotive applications, with significant increases in shipments and a decrease in costs, making lidar more accessible [7][26] Technology Trends - The report highlights that 905nm light sources will continue to dominate the market, while VCSEL technology is expected to replace EEL in lidar designs, and solid-state lidar is anticipated to become the preferred choice in the long term [13][14][15] Competitive Landscape - The lidar market in China is highly concentrated, with the top three players (Hesai, Huawei, and Suteng) controlling a significant portion of the market, indicating high barriers to entry for smaller firms [18][19] Application Scenarios - Lidar applications are expanding across various sectors, including automotive, robotics, industrial logistics, and smart transportation, with automotive applications accounting for approximately 68% of the market [26]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Zhu Wei as the new president of Horizon Robotics is expected to enhance collaboration between Horizon and CATL, leveraging Zhu's extensive experience in smart driving and new energy sectors to drive the integration of intelligent automotive systems and electric vehicle technologies [2][5]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Zhu Wei, former executive president of CATL, will take over as president of Horizon Robotics, while former president Chen Liming will transition to vice chairman, focusing on major strategic decisions and governance improvements [2][7]. - Zhu Wei holds a degree in precision instruments from the University of Science and Technology of China and an MBA from Yale, bringing a wealth of experience from his eight years at CATL, where he managed passenger vehicle and overseas energy storage businesses [2]. Group 2: Strategic Collaborations - CATL and Horizon have maintained a long-standing capital and business collaboration, which is expected to strengthen further with Zhu Wei's leadership [3][4]. - In June 2025, a joint venture named Zhaofu Intelligent was established by Hello, Ant Group, and CATL, focusing on L4 autonomous vehicle operations, with Horizon providing key chips and systems, while CATL's battery technology supports energy needs, creating a synergistic "smart driving + energy" ecosystem [5]. Group 3: Leadership Contributions - Chen Liming, who has been with Horizon since September 2021, previously held significant roles at Bosch, where he contributed to the establishment of the Bosch chassis control systems R&D center in China [7]. - Under Chen's leadership, Horizon evolved from a "technical team" to a "regular army," laying the groundwork for the company's scaling and operational stability [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In January, the company achieved a significant year-on-year sales increase of 23.94%, with total vehicle sales reaching 327,400 units. Notably, the sales of new energy vehicles rose by 39.73% to 85,400 units, and exports increased by 51.68% to 104,500 units. This growth reflects the company's ongoing transformation and is supported by strong performances from subsidiaries such as SAIC Zhiji, passenger vehicle division, Wuling, and General Motors, which saw year-on-year sales growth of 65.96%, 53.78%, 36.98%, and 29.31% respectively [6][7] - The company maintains its earnings forecast for 2025-2027, projecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 10.72 billion, 13.68 billion, and 17.20 billion yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 15.1, 11.8, and 9.4 times for the respective years. The sustained introduction of new products and anticipated growth in overseas sales support the "Buy" rating [6][7] - The company is expected to benefit from increased sales and a low base due to General Motors' impairment in 2024, with a projected net profit of approximately 9-11 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 438%-558%. The fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to show a significant turnaround in profitability due to the same impairment impact [6][7] - The company is accelerating its electric vehicle transformation, with plans to enhance solid-state batteries, digital chassis, and intelligent cockpit technologies. The collaboration with Huawei on the new vehicle model is expected to yield a popular product, while SAIC Volkswagen plans to launch several new energy products in 2026. The company aims for overseas sales of 1.5 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of approximately 40% [6][7] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is reported at 744.71 billion yuan, with projections of 627.59 billion yuan for 2024 and 658.46 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.9% in 2025. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 14.11 billion yuan in 2023 to 10.72 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant increase of 543.3% [7][9] - The gross margin is projected to be 10.6% in 2025, with a net margin of 1.6%. The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve to 4.2% in 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) forecasted at 0.93 yuan [7][9] - The company's total assets are estimated at 1,006.65 billion yuan in 2023, with a slight decrease to 894.12 billion yuan by 2025. The total liabilities are projected to decrease from 663.74 billion yuan in 2023 to 533.09 billion yuan in 2025, indicating improved financial health [9][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The competition for AI traffic entry among internet giants is intensifying, with multiple business lines integrating and collaborating. AI empowerment is expected to drive performance and valuation. The demand for AI cloud services is anticipated to continue growing, supported by the rapid growth of domestic AI chips. Recommended stocks include Alibaba-W, Baidu Group-SW, and Pinduoduo, with Tencent Holdings as a beneficiary [5][41] - The Moltbot, an AI agent, is gaining attention as a significant breakthrough in the AI agent sector. It is designed to execute practical tasks and is expected to create new opportunities in the AI infrastructure layer. Cloudflare is highlighted as a key observation target due to its leading position in the market [6][20][23] Summary by Sections Internet Sector - The competition for AI traffic entry is increasing, with AI empowerment potentially becoming a key driver for performance and valuation. The demand for AI cloud services is expected to validate continuously, and the growth of domestic AI chips is rapid. Recommended stocks include Alibaba-W, Baidu Group-SW, and Pinduoduo, with Tencent Holdings as a beneficiary. The second-hand housing market in core cities is showing a downward trend in listings, with Beike-W recommended [5][13][41] AI Sector - Moltbot is emerging as a significant breakthrough in the AI agent space, characterized by its ability to execute practical tasks. It has gained popularity in the open-source community and is expected to create positive industry opportunities in 2026. Cloudflare is positioned as a leading beneficiary in this sector due to its robust infrastructure and market presence [6][20][22][23] Weekly Data Update - The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.4%, outperforming major global markets. The real estate sector showed significant gains, with a 6.11% increase in the Hang Seng real estate index [31][32]

Core Insights - The autonomous driving chip market is experiencing a significant concentration of market share among leading players, with Horizon Robotics dominating the ADAS market with a 47.66% share, followed by Mobileye [1] - The high-end autonomous driving computing chip market is set for explosive growth in 2025, with urban NOA vehicle deliveries in China reaching 2.0709 million units, a year-on-year increase of 155.83% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The overall market is showing a "Matthew Effect," where leading players are gaining significant advantages, particularly in the high-level autonomous driving market [1] - Horizon Robotics has secured over 10 partnerships with major automotive brands, further solidifying its market position [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - In the urban NOA chip market, the top three players—NVIDIA, Huawei, and Horizon—hold a combined 90% market share, with NVIDIA leading by approximately 26% over Huawei [2] - Horizon Robotics is rapidly increasing its market share in the urban NOA segment, thanks to the mass production of its Journey 6M/6P chips [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The high-end autonomous driving market is expected to undergo significant changes in 2026, driven by mature end-to-end technology, improved product experiences, and decreasing costs [2] - Companies that adopt an integrated hardware-software approach are likely to gain long-term competitive advantages, as they can leverage synergies between chips, algorithms, systems, and ecosystems [2]

Core Insights - The autonomous driving chip market is experiencing a significant concentration of market share among leading players, with Horizon Robotics dominating the ADAS market with a 47.66% share, followed by Mobileye [1] - The market for high-level autonomous driving chips supporting urban NOA is expected to see explosive growth in 2025, with a year-on-year increase in delivery volume of 155.83% [1] - The top three players in the urban NOA chip market—NVIDIA, Huawei, and Horizon—hold a combined 90% market share, indicating a strong competitive landscape [2] Market Dynamics - Horizon Robotics has maintained its position as the leading player in the ADAS market for two consecutive years, capturing nearly half of the market share, while the top five players collectively hold less than 20% [1] - The urban NOA market is characterized by rapid growth, with Horizon's products based on the Journey 6M/6P chips gaining traction and increasing market share [2] - The trend of decreasing costs and improved product experiences is expected to lead to a significant shift in the high-level autonomous driving market by 2026, with players focusing on integrated hardware and software solutions likely to gain a competitive edge [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 213.21 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average valuation of 69 times for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a turning point in profitability in Q4, with high-level autonomous driving products anticipated to become a new growth driver [2]. - The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.79, 3.09, and 4.98 CNY respectively, reflecting adjustments in revenue, gross margin, and expense ratios [3]. - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of 6.963 billion CNY in 2025, 8.687 billion CNY in 2026, and 10.510 billion CNY in 2027, representing growth rates of 25.7%, 24.8%, and 21.0% respectively [5][11]. Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of 4.678 billion CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 16.3%, and is expected to reach 5.541 billion CNY in 2024 [5][11]. - Operating profit is projected to turn positive in 2025, with an expected profit of 95 million CNY, following losses of 284 million CNY in 2023 and 595 million CNY in 2024 [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 95 million CNY in 2025, recovering from losses of 217 million CNY in 2023 and 550 million CNY in 2024 [5][11]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 24.5% to 24.7% from 2025 to 2027, while the net margin is projected to improve from -4.6% in 2023 to 5.7% in 2027 [5][11]. Business Development - The company is expanding its automotive electronics business and has made significant progress in its high-level autonomous driving solutions, with the L4 level Robo-X product expected to drive future growth [10]. - Strategic partnerships, such as the one with White Rhino, are aimed at scaling up the commercial deployment of unmanned logistics vehicles, which is expected to enhance the company's product offerings and market presence [10]. - The company is also diversifying into commercial aerospace, leveraging its subsidiary's capabilities in avionics, communication, radar, and control systems [10].