建筑+通信：从通信服务业务看中通服投资机会 20250915 运营商资本开支的未来趋势如何？ 运营商的资本开支主要跟通信代际的投资周期密切相关，通常一个通信代际 （如 3G、4G、5G）的投资周期约为 10 年。中国在 3G 和 4G 时代处于追赶 阶段，分别在 2008 年和 2013 年发牌，导致这两个代际合计投了 10 年的资本 开支。自 2019 年 5G 发牌以来，中国已进入与海外市场同步甚至领先的状态。 2020 年至 2022 年是 5G 资本开支高峰期，未来几年预计整体资本开支将稳中 有降，总降幅约为大个位数至 10 个点左右，并保持平稳下降态势。同时，在 传统通信投资压缩的背景下，AI 相关算力投资持续增加。 如何看待中通服后续的发展？ 中通服业务与运营商的 CAPEX 和 OPEX 均有关系。在 CAPEX 方面，中通服在 基站建设及算力基础设施建设领域表现出较强韧性，即使运营商资本开支下降， 三大运营商 2025 年上半年资本开支同比下降，降幅分别为 8.8%、27.5%、15.5%，但全年预算未调整，预计下半年开支可能提 速，有助于公司业绩增长。 中兴福利现金流表现优异，截至 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The mechanical equipment sector is rated as "stronger than the market" [3] Core Insights - The AI-driven intelligent manufacturing sector is experiencing a significant turning point, with cross-industry players accelerating their entry due to comprehensive technological reserves and ecosystem collaboration capabilities [3][10] - The report highlights the robust growth potential in the mechanical equipment sector, driven by technological advancements and policy support, particularly in the fields of robotics, AI, and renewable energy [3][25] Summary by Sections 1. Mechanical Equipment Sector Adjustment - The mechanical equipment sector saw a decline of 2.43% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 2.22%, ranking 22nd out of 31 sectors [3][10] - The engineering machinery segment led the gains with an increase of 3.67%, followed by building equipment and rail transit equipment [3][10] 2. AI and Intelligent Manufacturing - The mechanical industry is steadily growing with diverse application prospects, supported by new algorithms and computing power [25] - Major companies are investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with Alibaba announcing a 380 billion yuan investment over three years [3][25] 3. Semiconductor Equipment - Samsung and Yangtze Memory Technologies reached a patent agreement for hybrid bonding technology, which will be used in the next generation of NAND flash memory [31] - Intel has begun using ASML's first two High-NA EUV machines, which significantly enhance production efficiency [33] 4. Renewable Energy Equipment - The report notes a strong demand for new energy vehicles and a recovery cycle for lithium battery equipment [3][34] - A significant wind power project was announced, with a total scale of 800MW, indicating robust growth in the wind energy sector [37] 5. Robotics and Automation - The report emphasizes the emergence of humanoid robots and their applications, with companies like Xiaomi and Chery actively developing their robotics capabilities [3][30] - Innovations in robotics, such as the G1 robot's ability to learn any action, showcase advancements in motion control and learning capabilities [30]