Welcome back. China is reportedly advising banks in the country to limit exposure to US treasuries and a sign that the US assets could be less appealing on the global stage. But our next guest just published an op-ed in the Financial Times arguing that while foreign investors have been bashing many US policies, they're still pouring money into American assets.Joining us now is Rockefeller International Chairman Rier Sharma. Obviously, it's topical with this with this report RI that that China's telling bank ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite recent challenges, the U.S. dollar is expected to maintain its status as the world's dominant currency, although concerns about its stability and the impact of U.S. policies are growing [1][6]. Group 1: Dollar's Performance and Market Reactions - The dollar has declined by 10% over the past 12 months compared to other major currencies, while the price of gold surged by 63%, indicating increased investor anxiety regarding the dollar's reliability as a safe haven [5][1]. - The Swiss franc has appreciated by 18% against the dollar in the same period, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards alternative currencies [1]. - A significant increase in foreign exchange activity, up 27% in April compared to the previous year, was noted following the imposition of high U.S. tariffs, with average daily turnover reaching a record $9.5 trillion [9]. Group 2: Economic Policies and Their Impact - President Trump's administration has favored a weaker dollar to boost exports, leading to erratic trade and financial policies that have raised concerns among global investors [2][5]. - The federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected to reach 6.2% of GDP, significantly above the 50-year average of 3.8%, contributing to a decline in confidence in the dollar [14]. - Trump's fiscal policies, while aimed at stimulating the economy, have also increased U.S. debt and deficit, further undermining the dollar's appeal [13][14]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments for CFOs - CFOs are advised to adjust their scenario planning to account for higher capital costs and increased foreign exchange risks due to ongoing market volatility [4]. - Strategies suggested for mitigating risks include layering currency hedges, shifting currency risk to foreign suppliers, eliminating foreign debt, and diversifying supply chains [19][20][21][22]. - A weaker dollar can also present opportunities for companies, as earnings generated abroad become more valuable when converted back to dollars, potentially boosting reported revenue and earnings per share [23][24]. Group 4: Geopolitical Context and Future Outlook - The current geopolitical landscape is characterized by increasing tensions and a fragmentation of foreign exchange markets, which may lead to heightened volatility [8]. - The shift away from a rules-based international order has prompted CFOs to rethink their strategic plans, as the old order is unlikely to return [15][16][25].

A trader works at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) next to a U.S. flag, after Republican Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, in New York City, U.S., November 6, 2024. Andrew Kelly | ReutersStock Chart IconStock chart iconThe dollar index, 1-dayThe latest flare-up in Sell America positioning follows Trump's threats for tariffs on European countries as part of his push to take over Greenland. Representatives from the European Union gathered for an emergency meeting in response to Trump's call f ...

Currency markets are not always sensitive to inflation itself. What they care about is what inflation signals — about growth, policy, credibility, governance, and perhaps most of all, predictability.By now, the mix is familiar — uneven goods inflation, tariffs doing their work in the background, stubbornly high rents and housing costs. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly pointed to trade policy as a contributor to inflation overshoots, while emphasizing that officials need clearer evidence before conclud ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is heavily reliant on AI, with significant risks stemming from this concentration, as it masks deeper structural vulnerabilities [2][4][5]. Economic Dependency on AI - Approximately 40% of U.S. economic growth in 2023 is attributed to capital expenditure on AI infrastructure [2]. - Nearly 80% of recent gains in the U.S. stock market are driven by AI-related investments, indicating a "maniacal focus" on this sector [3]. Structural Vulnerabilities - The enthusiasm for AI is obscuring critical issues such as a fiscal deficit exceeding 6% of GDP and national debt surpassing 100% of GDP [4]. - Global investors are currently overlooking these deficits, betting on an AI-driven productivity boom to mitigate the debt concerns [4]. Market Bubble Concerns - The current market environment is characterized as a bubble, with the potential for inflation to trigger a tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which could end the prevailing euphoria [5][6]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - To mitigate concentration risk, diversification into undervalued assets in international markets such as China, India, and recovering European markets is advised [7]. - The performance gap between U.S. and international markets is narrowing, suggesting opportunities for investors to explore [7]. ETF Performance - Notable U.S.-listed AI-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have shown positive year-to-date and one-year performance, indicating investor interest in this sector [9][10].

You know, there's a whole lot of sayings and catchphrases and axioms on Wall Street. In fact, I think maybe the most one of the more intriguing ones is that bull markets like to climb a wall of worry. There's always something to worry about.[laughter] It's nuts, right. I mean, right now it's the AI bubble, but look at this. This is from the recent Bank of America, you know, survey.Uh, you know, so you got AI worries at the top. The bubble is huge. Uh, followed by bond yields and inflation way down there.By ...

Economic Impact - A weaker dollar could benefit the global economy [1] Geopolitical Implications - A weaker dollar might challenge the perception of American exceptionalism [1]

The world is watching, watching all of us today. So here's my message to those beyond our borders. America has been tested and we've come out stronger for it.We will repair our alliances and engage with the world once again, not to meet yesterday's challenges, but today's and tomorrow's challenges and will lead not merely by the example of our power, but by the power of our example. Those then President Joe Biden in his 2021 inaugural address, emphasizing America's resilience on the global stage. A new book ...

Core Insights - Thryve Wealth Management has launched with $270 million in managed assets after spinning out from Strive Asset Management, co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy [1][2] - The firm aims to differentiate itself through a focus on future investments, particularly in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and digital currencies [2] - Thryve's client portfolios emphasize "American exceptionalism" and include advanced strategies for digital currencies [4] Company Overview - Thryve is led by CEO Gary K. Dorfman, who emphasizes an entrepreneurial spirit and minimal bureaucracy [5] - The firm was previously part of Strive Asset Management's RIA business and is now fully independent [2] - Ramaswamy, while no longer running Strive, retains an advisory role and is the majority shareholder [6] Investment Strategy - Thryve's approach contrasts with traditional portfolio models, focusing on long-term value creation rather than just assets under management [5] - The firm aims to attract investors interested in innovative financial strategies, particularly in the context of emerging technologies [2][4]

Market Trends & Investment Strategies - Morgan Stanley highlights two key client concerns: American exceptionalism and tax implications from market appreciation, particularly in the "Magnificent Seven" stocks [2][3] - Investors are considering diversifying away from the US at the margin, exploring markets like Japan, China, India, and Europe [6] - Dollar depreciation makes it tougher for international investors to stay invested in the US [6] - The percentage of market capitalization in the US is at an unprecedented level [7] - The index is very concentrated in a few names, driving interest in private markets [9] US vs Global Markets - 70% of the acqu now is allocated to the US [2] - Nvidia's market cap is bigger than every market except Japan [7] - The market value of all stocks in Germany is less than Nvidia's [8] - Investors should be looking for opportunities outside the US [8] Currency Impact - The dollar's slide against many world currencies is an underreported story [4] - Dollar depreciation is a significant factor for foreign investors when considering investments in the US [6] - If the dollar appreciated, that's actually alpha to foreign investors [6]