Bitcoin missed St. Nick’s sleigh this year. Instead of a festive Santa rally, the top crypto is trudging into Christmas down 30% from its October all-time high despite macroeconomic tailwinds. While a “goldilocks” mix of a global rate cut cycle and rising liquidity have driven strong returns across stocks and gold, Bitcoin has disappointed investors, analysts David Brickell and Chris Mills of the London Crypto Club said in their weekly newsletter. “Despite all of the positive idiosyncratic drivers for ...

Everyone talks about strategy potentially selling BTC, but almost everyone forgets about the Bitcoin mining companies. Many miners face rising operational costs. And with BTC's price falling in recent months, miners could be the first Bitcoin whales to dump huge amounts of BTC. Case in point, some have already started pivoting towards AI, signaling that they may not see Bitcoin mining as a sustainable long-term business model. That's why today we're diving deep into the Bitcoin mining industry to help you s ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin price predictions are highly contentious, with forecasts ranging from $150,000 to $250,000 by the end of 2026, influenced by factors such as the next halving and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows [2][4]. Price Movements - Bitcoin reached a record high of $126,000 in October, followed by a nearly 30% decline, and is currently trading around $93,000 [4][5]. Forecasts and Predictions - Fundstrat predicts Bitcoin could reach between $200,000 and $250,000 by the end of 2026, driven by spot ETF inflows [4][8]. - Conservative estimates suggest Bitcoin may rise to $150,000-$200,000 if it maintains technical support around $102,000 [4][5]. Market Dynamics - Analysts are divided on future price movements, with some predicting a modest rise to $150,000 and others anticipating prices could exceed $250,000 due to Federal Reserve rate cuts and institutional adoption [2][4]. - A technical strategist using Elliott Wave theory suggests Bitcoin could rally to about $200,000 by mid-2026, contingent on holding support around $102,000 and a stable macro environment [5][6]. Investment Strategies - The conservative camp advocates for steady growth driven by corporate treasuries adding Bitcoin and diversified portfolios taking small positions, rather than speculative spikes [6][8]. - Fundstrat's bullish perspective hinges on the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which could lead to significant inflows from wealth management platforms, potentially creating a supply squeeze [8][9].

Bitcoin Halving Event - Thirteen years ago, Bitcoin's first halving reduced the new mining block reward by 50%, from 50 coins to 25 coins [1] - The event marked the first time a decentralized monetary system automatically maintained new issuance on an open-source schedule [1]

Core Insights - Bitcoin is facing significant challenges as it approaches its worst month since June 2022, with prices around $88,000, approximately 30% lower than the October all-time highs of over $126,000 [1] Group 1: Institutional Investment Trends - Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced outflows of $3.5 billion in November, the largest since February, indicating a halt in institutional investment [2] - The selling pressure from these ETFs is expected to hinder market stability and recovery [2] Group 2: Market Capitalization and Stablecoin Activity - There has been a slowdown in stablecoin minting, with approximately $800 million flowing out of crypto back into fiat currencies last week, suggesting reduced capital inflow into the crypto market [3] - The total market capitalization for stablecoins has decreased by $4.6 billion through November 1, indicating a reversal of previous trends where stablecoins provided a safe haven during market volatility [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - Despite recent positive sentiment from dovish Federal Reserve comments, any potential rally is expected to be short-lived, with a hawkish cut anticipated in December [5][6] - Long-term holders have been selling during the downturn, possibly in anticipation of Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle, leading to skepticism about the repeat of past performance patterns [7]

Bitcoin Mining & Supply - The initial Bitcoin cycle mined 7,200 Bitcoins daily [1] - After subsequent halvings, daily Bitcoin mining decreased to 3,600, then 1,800, then 900, and currently stands at 450 [2] - Current Bitcoin mining produces 450 Bitcoins per day [2] Institutional Adoption - MicroStrategy purchases more than 450 Bitcoins daily, absorbing all of the newly mined Bitcoin [2] - Companies are emulating MicroStrategy's Bitcoin treasury model [3] - Institutions and ETFs are increasingly investing in Bitcoin [3] - BlackRock holds more Bitcoin than MicroStrategy, achieving this in approximately one year compared to MicroStrategy's five years [3]

Core Insights - Bitcoin mining is becoming unprofitable, leading several energy and digital infrastructure companies to shift focus towards artificial intelligence (AI) [1] - The Bitcoin halving event, which occurs approximately every four years, reduces the block rewards for miners, impacting their profitability [2][3] - As mining rewards decrease and the difficulty of mining increases, companies are finding it more advantageous to pivot to AI operations [4] Company Developments - Bitfarms Ltd. plans to exit Bitcoin mining by 2027 and will repurpose its data centers for AI operations, starting with an 18 MW facility in Washington State [5] - The company has secured a $128 million agreement with a major American multinational provider for critical infrastructure related to data centers [6] - Bitfarms CEO Ben Gagnon aims to develop infrastructure to support Nvidia's next generation of Vera Rubin GPUs across the company's portfolio [7]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has recently dropped below $88,000, but Charles Hoskinson of Cardano predicts a rise to $250,000 by late 2026, suggesting a long-term bullish outlook despite current market challenges [1][2]. Market Analysis - Hoskinson describes the upcoming two quarters as a "downside clearing" period, indicating that the market is currently processing macroeconomic pressures such as tariff uncertainties and uneven economic momentum [2]. - He emphasizes that historical patterns show significant price increases for Bitcoin 400 to 600 days post-halving events, positioning 2026 as a potentially strong year for Bitcoin [3]. Institutional Participation - The current Bitcoin cycle is characterized by substantial institutional investment, with major firms like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley contributing to demand, contrasting with previous cycles that were primarily retail-driven [4][3]. Technical Analysis - Bitcoin's price has broken below a multi-year trendline, indicating a deeper corrective phase rather than a simple pullback, with current trading levels significantly below key moving averages [8][12]. - The next major support level is identified around $75,000, which is crucial for determining future price movements [12]. Long-Term Outlook - Despite the structural breakdown indicated by the loss of the multi-year trendline, there is a continued influx of long-term capital from institutions and ETF issuers, suggesting a potential accumulation phase rather than a complete market exhaustion [13][14]. - Hoskinson's perspective reframes the current market conditions as an opportunity for institutional accumulation, with the $75,000 level serving as a potential entry point for future growth towards the anticipated 2026 trajectory [14].

The 4-year cycle has provided the #Bitcoin top!It's probably the most common question and debate. Where are we in the cycle? Did Bitcoin just see its peak of this cycle?Ultimately, it could be. Definitely. The rally to $125K happened just days before the government shutdown, and, since then, markets have been going down substantially.However, this cycle has been proven to act differently. The ETF has added $60B in fresh liquidity into the Bitcoin markets, through which a new all-time high was created prior ...

Bitcoin Halving Overview - Bitcoin halving 对 supply, demand, and price 产生影响 [1] - Bitcoin halving 对 mining 产生影响 [1] Investor Implications - Bitcoin halving 对投资者很重要 [1] Key Events - 报告讨论了 next halving occurs 的时间 [1]