Core Insights - Bitcoin has surpassed the $90,000 mark after over a month of unsuccessful attempts to break through this level [1] Group 1 - The recent surge in Bitcoin's price indicates a significant bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market [1] - This breakthrough could attract more investors and potentially lead to increased trading volume [1] - The previous resistance level has now turned into a support level, which may stabilize Bitcoin's price in the near term [1]

Market Overview - Bitcoin price remains stagnant entering 2026, showing a slight decline of about 0.6% over the past 30 days and down approximately 7% year on year, indicating a stalemate between buyers and sellers [1] - The market is currently trapped within a symmetrical triangle pattern, reflecting the ongoing tussle between lower highs and higher lows, with capital flows not favoring an upward movement [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has been trending lower since December 10, indicating a bearish divergence as BTC price increased while CMF recorded lower lows, suggesting continued outflows and selling pressure [3] - Despite negative capital flow, exchange outflows have increased significantly, from about 16,563 BTC on December 19 to 38,508 BTC by January 1, marking a rise of approximately 132%, which may support price stability [4][5] Smart Money Insights - The Smart Money Index indicates indecision among larger, informed traders, as it remains close to its signal line without clear separation, suggesting that these traders are awaiting a breakout [6] - The overall market remains neutral until a breakout occurs, with CMF and exchange flow data indicating conflicting signals that keep BTC price stable [7] Price Levels and Resistance - The cost basis heat map reveals significant clusters of buyers, with the nearest resistance zone identified between $88,082 and $88,459, where approximately 200,035 BTC are located [8] - Bitcoin is currently trading near $87,480, and a daily close about 1% higher could breach the resistance zone, potentially acting as a bullish trigger for an upper triangle breakout, with a critical level at $88,300 that needs to be surpassed [9]

Core Viewpoint - The near-term direction of Bitcoin's price is increasingly influenced by the financial resilience of Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, rather than miner behavior, amidst ongoing mining pressure and market volatility [1][5]. Group 1: Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Two primary forces are currently impacting Bitcoin: a decline in the network hashrate and mining difficulty, and the market's focus on Strategy's balance sheet [1][2]. - The decline in hashrate is attributed to China's reaffirmation of its ban on private mining and high-cost miners exiting the market due to falling Bitcoin prices and high electricity costs [3]. Group 2: Production Costs and Mining Pressures - JPMorgan estimates Bitcoin's production cost at $90,000, down from $94,000, assuming electricity costs of $0.05 per kilowatt hour, with each $0.01 increase in electricity adding approximately $18,000 to production costs for high-cost miners [4]. - With Bitcoin trading near $92,000, it remains close to its estimated production cost, leading to sustained selling pressure from miners [4]. Group 3: Strategy's Financial Position - Strategy's enterprise-value-to-Bitcoin-holdings ratio is currently at 1.13, indicating that the company is unlikely to face pressure to sell Bitcoin to meet financial obligations [6]. - The company has established a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve through equity sales, aimed at covering dividend payments and interest expenses for at least 12 months, potentially extending to 24 months [7]. - This reserve significantly mitigates the risk of forced Bitcoin sales in the near future [7].

Market Overview - Bitcoin price rebounded 17%, moving from lows near $82,000 on November 21 to graze the $93,000 level on November 28 [1] - Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined $221 million in net inflows between Nov. 25 and Nov. 28 [1] - Despite a modest $74 million net-positive session, Bitcoin failed to advance beyond the key $95,000 resistance [1] Institutional Activity - BlackRock experienced a significant outflow of $117 million, indicating a cautious stance among institutional investors [1] - Strategy Inc. made no purchases last week, ending a 14-week buying streak, with its last acquisition being 8,178 BTC for $836 million on Nov. 17 [2] Market Sentiment - Prediction markets show a decline in optimism, with odds of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 dropping 11% and odds of closing below $80,000 rising 8% to 36% [4] - Kalshi is facing a lawsuit over market manipulation, reflecting a cautious sentiment among traders [3] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin is attempting to rebuild structure after a recovery from the $82,705 SAR cluster, currently pinned under $92,971 [5] - Momentum signals are improving, with the MACD line crossing into positive territory for the first time since early November [6] - A decisive daily close above $95,000 could re-establish bullish dominance, while failure to hold the $90,000 support risks triggering a correction [7]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has recently exited a seasonal period characterized by bottoming, according to BTIG's chief technical strategist Jonathan Krinksy [1] Group 1 - The analysis indicates a potential shift in Bitcoin's market dynamics following the seasonal bottoming phase [1]

Market Events - The Federal Reserve will announce new interest rates tomorrow, and US President Donald Trump will meet with Premier Xi Jinping the following day, both of which are expected to impact the BTC USD price [1] - The BTC USD price is currently around $114,000 to $115,000, reflecting a +6% increase over the past week, with potential for further gains following a recovery from October 23 [2] Trader Sentiment - Most traders are currently bullish, as indicated by a long/short ratio above 1 on major exchanges like Binance and OKX, suggesting more leveraged buy positions than shorts [3] - An expanding long/short ratio and significant inflow to spot Bitcoin exchanges, with over $120 million in Bitcoin purchased in the last eight hours, indicate positive market sentiment [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a +97% probability of a rate cut to the +3.75% to +4% range, with expectations that the central bank will cut rates for the second time this year [5] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic data, particularly inflation and labor market conditions, with job growth slowing to 22,000 in August, the weakest since 2010 [6] - Inflation has eased slightly, with core PCE at +2.7%, above the +2% benchmark, influenced by tariffs and reduced immigration, while lower demand for goods is helping to create balance [7] Rate Cut Expectations - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more aggressive stance on rate cuts, with some governors advocating for a +0.50% reduction [8]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has fallen below the critical $112,000 level due to macroeconomic concerns and a significant $19 billion in futures liquidation across exchanges [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The crypto market is entering a "reset phase," characterized by a large-scale leverage flush, slowing ETF inflows, and increased volatility, described as "an Early Black Friday" [2]. - Bitcoin is currently trading around $111,000, down approximately 9% over the past week, with a decline below the $117,000–$114,000 cost-basis zone since October 10 [2]. - On-chain data indicates ongoing selling from long-term holders since July and a decrease in institutional interest, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing a 2,300 BTC outflow this week [3]. Group 2: Futures Market Dynamics - The futures market has seen a significant cleanup, with the Estimated Leverage Ratio dropping to multi-month lows and funding rates falling to levels not seen since the 2022 FTX collapse, indicating intense liquidation and peak market fear [3]. - The options market is showing early signs of stabilization, with open interest rebounding despite a surge in volatility to 76% [4]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Some analysts believe Bitcoin could reach new highs by 2026, suggesting that current dips present buying opportunities, provided the $102,000 level holds [5]. - Conversely, crypto analyst Jason Pizzino warns that a drop below $108,000 could jeopardize the bull market, although other assets like gold and stocks remain near record highs, indicating ongoing support for long-term growth [5].