Andy Burnham had been widely tipped to succeed Sir Keir Starmer as Labour Party leader - Ian Vogler/WPA Pool UK government borrowing costs have fallen after Sir Keir Starmer blocked leadership rival Andy Burnham from standing as an MP. The yield on benchmark 10-year gilts, as UK government bonds are known, fell as low as 4.47pc early on Monday, compared to a high of 4.51pc on Friday in the wake of the Gorton and Denton by-election announcement. Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) blocked ...

Romanian inflation stagnated last month as a raft of tax hikes and austerity measures to narrow a budget deficit that’s become the widest in the European Union continues to impact prices https://t.co/dCUULZQXV4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a third quarter point cut in the last Federal Reserve meeting of the year, with odds at 91%, but there is a belief that this easing is a mistake due to inflation remaining above target [1]. Group 1: Inflation and Fiscal Policy - Inflation was largely driven by fiscal policies in 2021 and 2022, and it continues to be influenced by ongoing large budget deficits [3][7]. - The budget deficit is expected to increase over the next year, necessitating the Fed to counteract expansionary demand policies more aggressively than it did in 2021 [4]. - The current inflation rate is a percentage point above the target, while the unemployment rate is only slightly above its target, indicating a need for the Fed to maintain focus on inflation [7][8]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Conditions - There is a call for higher long-term interest rates to counteract inflation and the AI bubble, which would require a shift in market expectations regarding short-term rate cuts [4][5]. - The government must reduce its budget deficit to facilitate lower interest rates for consumers and small businesses [6]. - Expansionary fiscal policy combined with rising asset prices creates a demand-heavy environment, complicating the inflation situation [7]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Government Actions - Despite lower gas prices, consumer sentiment remains poor, highlighting a disconnect between economic indicators and public perception [9]. - The President has made claims about combating inflation and improving affordability, but there are suggestions that reducing tariffs could be a more effective tool for making goods more affordable [10][11]. - The current trade attitude is viewed as detrimental, with calls for the government to reverse tariffs that contribute to rising goods prices [12].

Markets are widely expecting a third quarter point cut in the last Fed meeting of the year. The definitive odds are at 91% today, but our next guest says the market has it wrong and easing is a mistake because inflation is well above target. Joining us now is Jason Ferman, former chair of the Council of Economic Adviserss under President Obama, now with Harvard's Kennedy School.Jason, it's great to have you here. I did ask our previous more dovish guest, I don't know if you caught that, um why he thinks tha ...

Market Outlook - The market is currently experiencing upward movement, but there are concerns about whether this trend can be sustained, with expectations of a potential increase of plus or minus 10% over the next year [4] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates, leading to a steepening of the yield curve, which may result in limited forward momentum in equities [5] AI Investment Narrative - The market's behavior is largely influenced by the AI investment narrative, focusing on the long-term productivity enhancements and potential growth that AI can bring to the economy [2][3] - The real question surrounding AI is how companies will leverage it to reimagine processes and improve productivity, rather than merely supporting AI initiatives [6][7] Economic Implications - There is a potential for a productivity boom driven by AI, which could address issues such as budget deficits and workforce declines through improved labor quality [8] - However, there are concerns about rising youth unemployment, which could mirror historical trends seen during technological advancements [9] Labor Market and Education - The potential for AI to enhance labor quality through better educational outcomes is viewed positively, suggesting that the next generation may be more adept at utilizing advanced tools [10][11] - The current labor market dynamics may lead to challenges, but there is optimism about the capabilities of younger workers entering the job market [11] Bond Market Dynamics - Despite concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and political chaos, the bond market has not reacted as negatively as expected, indicating a possible overreaction from market participants [13][16] - The budget deficit remains a significant issue, but it appears to be largely overlooked by the market, which may lead to future complications [16]

Gold Market Dynamics - Central bank buying, especially from China, continues to be a tailwind for gold, as they diversify away from the dollar [1] - US and Western investor concerns about the ballooning twin deficits (budget and trade) are adding to the gold rally [2] - Rate cuts may spark an upside move in silver, viewed as gold's little cousin, which tends to outperform gold in long bull markets [7] Agnico Eagle Mines Analysis - Agnico Eagle Mines is a top pick due to its ability to deliver on guidance and execute well on projects, ideally outperforming the gold price by a ratio of 2 to 1 [3] - Agnico Eagle Mines has good growth for its size, with a market cap of $70 billion, low cost, enormous exploration upside, and a suite of perspective projects [4] Platinum Market Insights - Limited supply from South Africa and potentially limited access to Russian supplies are driving interest in platinum [5] - Demand in China is potentially accelerating for platinum, possibly for jewelry buying and investments into hydrogen infrastructure [5]

Financial Strategy - Saudi Arabia plans to issue more international bonds to address a budget deficit [1] - The deficit is attributed to decreased oil prices and substantial government spending on economic diversification [1]

Financial Performance - Chicago Public Schools rely heavily on property taxes, typically received in two installments around March and August [1] - A computer glitch has delayed the issuance of property tax bills, potentially delaying the receipt of critical cash flow for weeks or even months, possibly until October [2] - The school district faces a $734 million budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 [4] - Tax anticipation notes are used as a short-term borrowing mechanism to bridge the gap until tax revenues are received [4] - The school district's short-term borrowings have been increasing in recent years due to cash flow pressures [4] Budget and Expenditure - The school district is currently in negotiations and has presented a budget proposal for fiscal year 2026, which began on July 1st [3][4] - The school board is expected to vote on the budget on August 28th [4] - The school district may need to cut costs due to the delayed tax revenue [3]

Hey, thanks Scott. Uh we've got the former uh Treasury Secretary here, Steve Minutuchin, of course, the founder and managing partner of Liberty uh Strategic Capital as well. It's nice to see you, sir.We got a lot of lot of former Treasury Secretaries. Hank Pollson's here, Tim Gner's here, Larry Summers is here. You're here.Bob Rubin, Janet Yellen. Who am I missing. It's big turnout.Um here's what I want to talk about. Uh tariffs. We talked to the president of the United States this morning on tariffs uh on ...

Romania’s government survived a no-confidence motion on Monday, clearing the way for a sweeping austerity plan aimed at scaling back a budget deficit that’s become the widest in the European Union. https://t.co/MdyBbBB9tq ...