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Ethereum Drops 30% - Now What?
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-10-12 03:09
Market Analysis and Predictions - Ethereum experienced a 30% correction, aligning with previous expectations, leading to a shift in market bias towards a potential rally to new all-time highs [2][5] - The analysis suggests that Ethereum's valuation against Bitcoin bottomed out in April, coinciding with Ethereum reaching its logarithmic regression trend line, which historically signals a bottom [12] - Altcoins, in general, have shown weakness against Bitcoin, with many altcoin/Bitcoin pairs reaching new cycle lows, indicating a challenging environment for altcoins compared to Ethereum [14][15][16] - Bitcoin dominance is expected to remain resilient in the short term, potentially spiking up to 64%, similar to patterns observed in October 2017 and 2020 [18][19] - Historically, Bitcoin dominance tends to increase as Bitcoin rallies to new cycle highs, followed by a correction in Bitcoin dominance once Bitcoin breaks through to new all-time highs [25][26] Risk Management and Contingency Planning - The analysis will be re-evaluated if Bitcoin experiences two weekly closes below its 50-week moving average, which historically indicates the end of a market cycle [7][8] - Despite the bullish outlook on Ethereum, the possibility of further downward wicks and potential lower lows for ETH/Bitcoin should be considered, especially if Bitcoin's bull market is not yet over [24][29] Key Levels and Metrics - Total 3 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin reached 029%, and subtracting USDC as well, it went to 025%, aligning with a long-term target of 25% of Bitcoin's market cap for the collective altcoin market [14] - Others divided by Bitcoin reached a new cycle low of 008%, matching levels seen in December 2020 [15]
Ethereum: Dubious Speculation
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-10-07 19:54
Market Analysis and Ethereum's Performance - Ethereum has been trading around $4,500 since early August [2] - Ethereum is expected to experience continued chop in the short term until the bull market support band catches up, potentially forcing a decision within the next two months [7][8] - The market suggests that Ethereum's breakout may not immediately follow Bitcoin's, with a possible lagged effect, similar to the 2017 cycle [9][10][21] - Ethereum is struggling to break through long-term resistance but finds support around $4,000, indicating a potential consolidation phase [6][22] Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Market - Bitcoin dominance formed a low in early September and has been increasing, rising from 57% to approximately 59% in about a month [27][28] - The market suggests that rising Bitcoin dominance is generally a positive sign for Bitcoin's bull run, despite short-term pullbacks and altcoin shilling [32][33] - Bitcoin dominance needs to continue to rise for Bitcoin to continue the bull run [30] Potential Catalysts and Future Outlook - The market anticipates Ethereum to break through to all-time highs after a period of consolidation, potentially leading to a market cycle top before a 2026 bear market [41] - Potential catalysts for Ethereum's movement include the end of a government shutdown or a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in late October, which could create a final low before a rally [36][38][39] - The market draws parallels between the current cycle and the 2016-2017 cycle, noting similarities in Bitcoin's performance and potential delays in Ethereum's breakout [11][12][14][17]
Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-10-06 03:10
Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin as it has hit a new all-time high after bouncing off the bull market support band. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. We went through this uh process pretty closely and and even talked about how this might play out exactly like 2020 did at least after the l ...
Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-09-29 01:44
Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be providing an update to the bull market support band. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in. So this week or really I should say this month ended up being a very similar month to what we saw in 2020.In fact, um I ...
Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-09-22 17:14
Market Trend Analysis - Bitcoin historically sets a high in August or early September, followed by a low in September, setting up a rally into a market cycle top in Q4 [1] - The pattern observed in 2020, involving a low in Q1, sideways movement, a rally, and a pullback to the bull market support band, mirrors the current market behavior [7][8] - Altcoin liquidity is expected to flow back to Bitcoin in late September and early October [31] Technical Indicators and Key Levels - Bitcoin's cycle is considered intact as long as it maintains weekly closes above the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently near 99,000, potentially reaching 100,000 soon [13][23] - A weekly close below the 50-week SMA would signal a potential end to the cycle [13][14] - The 20-week SMA serves as a bull market support band, and holding it through October would be the best-case scenario [26] Historical Patterns and Predictions - The number 124 (or multiples thereof, like 1244, 12400, 124K) has historically acted as a local top for Bitcoin [15][16] - The current cycle is showing similarities to the 2016-2017 cycle, based on the number of days since Bitcoin had a 50% drop [22] - Ethereum is expected to pull back to the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) after sweeping the prior all-time high [27][28] Macroeconomic Factors - A 50 basis point rate cut last year resulted in a 26% rally for Bitcoin, while this time, a 25 basis point rate cut only led to a 10% rally [3] - If the Federal Reserve cuts rates and the economy is not imploding, the 10-year yield is likely to increase [5]
Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-09-15 03:58
Market Analysis & Predictions - The analysis suggests Bitcoin typically experiences a high in August followed by a low in September, a pattern observed in 2017 and 2021 [2][3] - The report anticipates that the August high could be surpassed in October, potentially mirroring trends from 2017, 2021, or even 2020 [6] - The analysis is monitoring Bitcoin dominance, suggesting a potential rally after rate cuts in late September and into October [15] Key Technical Levels - The 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) is currently around 98,000 [8] - The bull market support band ranges from 109,000 to 111,000, and Bitcoin is currently holding above this level [8] - Maintaining the bull market support band is crucial for a potential Q4 rally to new highs; failure to do so could lead to a muted rally [9] Risk Assessment - Multiple weekly closes below the 50-week moving average would signal a potential end to the current cycle [12] - A breakdown in September doesn't necessarily mean the cycle is over, as the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) could provide support [11][12]
Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-08-26 00:32
Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to provide an update to the bull market support band. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Link is in the description below. Let's go ahead and jump in.So, I'm going to just stand by what I told you guys the last couple of weeks when we did th ...
Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-08-18 05:00
Market Trend Prediction - The analysis suggests Bitcoin is likely to revisit the bull market support band, specifically the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA, potentially in September [3][4] - Historical data indicates that post-halving years for Bitcoin have typically seen green months in July and August, followed by a red September [3][4] - The report considers a scenario where a Federal Reserve rate cut in September could lead to a negative reaction in the bond market, potentially driving the 10-year yield up to 5%, impacting Bitcoin [7][8][10] - Analysis draws parallels between Bitcoin's current valuation and its performance in 2020, noting similarities in market capitulation in Q1 [14] Altcoin Impact - A Bitcoin pullback to the 20-week SMA could result in a 20-30% drop for Ethereum and a 30-50% drop for altcoins [15] - Altcoins are expected to remain strong against Bitcoin until September, with a larger correction anticipated when Bitcoin revisits the 20-week SMA [16] Technical Analysis - The bull market support band is defined by the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) [3] - Bitcoin stalled around $12,470 in 2020 before correcting to the 20-week SMA in September, a level that has been replicated recently [14]
Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-08-11 03:13
Market Analysis and Predictions - Bitcoin is approaching its prior all-time high of just over 123,000 [2] - Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin may continue to perform well for most of the current month, followed by a pullback in September to the bull market support band, and then a potential market cycle peak in the fourth quarter [5] - If historical patterns continue, a slight pullback in September could correspond to a final drop by all Bitcoin pairs potentially to the range lows [10] - The analyst estimates that all Bitcoin pairs will find a local top around late August [12][13] - Ethereum's valuation is likely to continue to increase against Bitcoin for the next couple of weeks [16] Bull Market Support Band - The bull market support band currently ranges from around 105,000 to 107,000, and is moving up [7] - If the price were to stay constant, the 20-week SMA would be around 110,000 to 115,000 by mid-September [9] - The analyst suggests that wherever the bull market support band ends up being in September is probably where the next pullback will be [17] Historical Cycle Comparison - Previous cycles ended around day 1,59 and day 1,67, suggesting potentially a couple more months in the current cycle [6] - In prior post-halving years, July and August were green, with a slight pullback in September before going into the market cycle top [10] - Altcoins tend to drop against Bitcoin during both Bitcoin pullbacks and rallies [11][12]
Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-06-30 02:42
Hey everyone and thanks for tuning back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be providing an update to the bull market support band. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in. So, Bitcoin actually had a nice move back up last week to the tune of about 7%.not quite at all-time highs just yet, but ...