Core Insights - Bitcoin is expected to have a bear market bottom around $55,000, which is identified as a significant price support level based on historical data [2][3] - The bear market bottom typically takes time to form, with the price likely to hover around the bottom level for 4-6 months [3] - Current indicators suggest that Bitcoin is still in the "bear" phase and has not yet entered the "extreme bear" phase that usually signals the start of a bottom [3] Price Predictions - Standard Chartered forecasts that Bitcoin could drop to $50,000 before any potential rebound towards $100,000 [4] - Predictors on Myriad suggest a similar outlook, with expectations for Bitcoin to decline to $55,000 before a rise to $84,000 [4] - As of the latest data, Bitcoin has recently traded at approximately $69,724, reflecting a 27% drop over the past 30 days and nearly a 45% decline from its all-time high of $126,080 [5]

Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. has deployed a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East amid ongoing negotiations with Iran, signaling a willingness for military action if a favorable deal is not reached [2][3] - Treasury Secretary Besson indicated that the U.S. dollar has been used to influence protests in Iran, which reflects the geopolitical dynamics affecting the currency [4] Market Analysis - The S&P 500 and Dow have both seen nine consecutive months of gains on a total return basis, indicating a strong bull market despite recent market fluctuations [8] - Oil prices have shown a sustainable rise, contrasting with previous periods of stability in Iran, suggesting increased market volatility [5][6] Investment Sentiment - Current market sentiment has shifted from greed to fear, with a notable increase in short interest in technology ETFs, indicating a cautious outlook among investors [10][11] - Valuations in the software sector are at their lowest since 2013, presenting potential investment opportunities despite the prevailing market pessimism [13] Trade and Tariff Implications - The overall tariff level in the U.S. stands at 14.2%, with expectations that it may decrease to closer to 10% by year-end, which could provide fiscal stimulus [16][17] - Anticipation of a significant bank deal with China may include a currency component, potentially exerting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar [17][18]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 sectors favored by top investment newsletters tend to perform strongest at market peaks [1] Group 1 - Investment newsletters currently favor certain S&P 500 sectors, indicating a bullish sentiment among analysts [1] - These favored sectors are historically associated with strong performance during market peaks, suggesting potential investment opportunities [1]

Market Overview - The current bull market has lasted for 1,123 days, slightly above the average duration of 1,111 days, with the longest bull market reaching 4,494 days [1] - There is significant anxiety among investors regarding the market's performance, particularly in the tech sector, which has shown signs of struggle [2] Investment Strategy - The company has been advising investors to rotate into value cyclicals that are expected to benefit from improved manufacturing data and a recovering housing market [3] - It is suggested that this year is not favorable for owning the S&P index; instead, investors should focus on equal weight, midcap, small cap, and value indices, as well as international markets [5] Economic Indicators - Recent economic indicators show a positive trend, with lower interest rates, rising money growth, and a 20% increase in the housing purchase index over the past year [7] - In January, 70% of US regional and national services and manufacturing PMIs were in expansion, the highest level in four years, indicating potential for broader earnings growth [8] Political and Monetary Factors - The upcoming midterm elections are viewed as potentially bullish, with expectations of a strong fourth quarter performance, particularly in the cyclical value space [11] - The new Fed chair's policies are under scrutiny, with concerns about how they may impact earnings and the ongoing cyclical upturn [13][14]

Myrmikan Capital's Daniel Oliver says we're in the first phase of a massive bull market and the second could come fast. ...

Core Insights - The Shiller P/E Ratio, or CAPE Ratio, historically indicates significant declines in major stock indexes when it exceeds 30, with past instances leading to declines between 20% and 89% [1][2][3] - The current CAPE Ratio is between 39 and 41, marking it as the second-highest valuation in history, compared to a long-term average of 17.3 for the S&P 500 over the last 155 years [2][3] - Historical data suggests a correlation between U.S. recessions and the political party in the White House, with all 10 Republican presidents since 1913 overseeing the start of a recession, while only 4 out of 9 Democratic presidents experienced the same [8][9] Market Performance - During President Trump's first term, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq saw cumulative returns of 57%, 70%, and 142% respectively [7] - Since Trump's second term began, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have risen by 14%, 16%, and 20% respectively, reaching multiple record-closing highs [6] Midterm Elections Impact - Midterm election years historically lead to increased volatility in the stock market, with the average drawdown for the S&P 500 being 17.5% since 1950 [10][11] - The S&P 500 fell nearly 20% during the second year of Trump's first term, indicating potential for similar corrections in the current midterm election year [10] Long-term Outlook - Despite potential short-term declines, historical data shows that all rolling 20-year periods of the S&P 500 have produced positive annualized returns, suggesting that long-term investors may benefit from patience [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising value of gold and the potential of the WisdomTree Efficient Gold Plus Equity Strategy Fund (GDE) as a strong investment option amid a declining U.S. dollar and increasing gold prices [1]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold has risen over 20% year-to-date, reflecting a bullish trend as it surpasses the psychologically significant $5,000 per troy ounce level [1]. - The current political climate and economic uncertainty are driving investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, with President Trump's rhetoric contributing to market volatility [1]. - Central banks are increasingly accumulating gold, indicating a strategic shift towards assets outside the Western currency system due to rising global debt levels [1]. Group 2: GDE Fund Characteristics - The GDE fund offers exposure to both gold futures and a basket of large-cap domestic equities, positioning it as a unique alternative to traditional gold ETFs [1]. - Approximately 40% of S&P 500 revenue is generated outside the U.S., allowing companies to benefit from stronger foreign currencies, which can enhance earnings [1]. - The actively managed nature of GDE may allow it to outperform traditional gold ETFs if the decline of the dollar continues to support both gold and equities [1].

Opinion: Loading up on your employer's stock is tempting in a bull market. But how much is too much? - MarketWatch## Outside the Box# Opinion: Loading up on your employer's stock is tempting in a bull market. But how much is too much?## Employees face 'double jeopardy' — the stock's decline portfolio and increased job riskPublished: Jan. 28, 2026 at 10:47 a.m. ETShareResize---Listen(6 min)Photo: MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphotoWith U.S. stocks at record levels, many employees are feeling wealthier ...

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 has reached new records in 2026, increasing nearly 21% over the last 12 months and approximately 41% since its low in April of the previous year, raising concerns about the sustainability of the bull market [1] Investment Metrics - The Buffett indicator, which measures the ratio of U.S. gross domestic profit (GDP) to U.S. stock market capitalization, is currently at 222%, indicating a potential warning sign for investors [3][4] - Historically, when the Buffett indicator approaches 200%, it has signaled a bear market, as seen in November 2021 when it reached around 193% before the S&P 500 began its decline [4] Market Outlook - While the Buffett indicator is at a record high, it does not guarantee an imminent bear market or recession, suggesting that the market may still have room to grow before a downturn occurs [6] - Investors are advised to prepare their portfolios by ensuring that their stocks are from solid companies with long-term growth potential, as strong businesses are better positioned to withstand market volatility [7]

You can find original article here WealthManagement. Subscribe to our free daily WealthManagement newsletters. Morgan Stanley’s wealth division beat expectations and boasted both a quarterly and yearly double-digit net revenue boost. Following Wells Fargo and Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Monday, it’s the latest example of a wirehouse reporting blockbuster fourth-quarter results, primarily driven by higher fees from wealth and investment management, fueled by the ongoing bull market. However, CEO Ted P ...