The market has also dropped below a short-term 50% level, making $4350.27 to $4381.44 resistance. The daily chart now suggests traders are aiming for the value area created by the intermediate 50% level at $4211.60 and the 50-day moving average at $4174.88. We expect to see buyers return on a test of this area.The 50-day MA is of particular importance because it is also our main trend indicator. It has been directing the market higher since mid-August. Breaking it with conviction could shift the narrative o ...

When 2025 began, Wall Street was awash in excitement. A new President was about to take office  — even if he'd been in the office once before. Most investment professionals expected interest rates to come down. That tax cuts were on the way was judged a certainty. Regulation might be reduced substantially. And what Wall Street certainly saw was a continuation of the 2024 bull market. What could possibly go wrong? Well, there was Donald Trump's decision in early April to impose massive tariffs on just a ...

Although valuations are subjective (i.e., what you find to be pricey might be viewed as a bargain by another investor), one time-tested valuation measure fully supports Fed Chair Powell's commentary that the broader market is historically expensive. This valuation tool is the S&P 500's Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio, which is also referred to as the cyclically adjusted P/E Ratio, or CAPE Ratio.The point of emphasis is the final six words of Powell's statement: "equity prices are fairly highly valued. ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 is showing signs of a continuing bull market, with the Santa Claus rally expected to occur during the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year [1] - There have been 39 new highs in the market, indicating potential for further upside, although the current bull market is characterized as a lowercase "b" as it heads into 2026 [2] Commodity Insights - The chart for copper indicates a strong upward trend, with potential for an additional 6-7% increase to reach the upper end of its trading range, making copper a favored metal for 2026 [3][4] - The basic materials sector, driven by gold and silver, has been the best performing sector year-to-date, with the GDX showing about 17% more upside potential [5] Currency Impact - The dollar index is on track for its worst year since 2017, which is influencing the attractiveness of gold and silver as central governments opt to buy these metals instead of treasuries [6][7] Biotech Sector - The biotech sector is positioned for growth, especially if rate cuts occur in 2026, with the XBI showing a favorable setup and potential for further gains [7][8] - Specific companies within the biotech index, such as Xalixus, Regeneron, and Travera, are demonstrating constructive chart patterns, suggesting that biotech could become a new focus for momentum investors in the coming year [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Nvidia trade has been a significant driver of the recent bull market for the S&P and NASDAQ, but there are concerns about its sustainability moving forward [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and AI Influence - The market is seeking tangible proof that AI can continue to drive economic gains and productivity improvements [3] - There is a prevailing sentiment of caution as the market awaits further evidence of AI's impact, leading to a "show me" situation [4] - Concerns about a potential pullback in AI infrastructure spending may be overstated [2] Group 2: Sector Leadership and Economic Outlook - Leadership in the market is expected to shift towards cyclical sectors such as industrials and financials, with materials also showing strong performance [7] - The bull market is anticipated to remain robust, with cyclical areas likely leading the way into 2026 [8] - The macroeconomic environment, particularly the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, will be a key focus for investors in the upcoming year [9] Group 3: Valuation and Earnings Growth - The valuation model for the S&P 500 is influenced by the interest rate backdrop, with a preference for declining 10-year yields [10] - Expectations for inflation to continue decreasing contribute to a favorable outlook for earnings growth [11] - There is an anticipated positive bias towards GDP trends due to recent tax reform measures, supporting a broader economic recovery [12]

On December 10, Meghan Shue, Wilmington Trust chief investment strategist, appeared on CNBC’s ‘The Exchange’. Given the then-upcoming Fed meeting scheduled for that day, Shue thought that the Fed should cut interest rates (the Fed did cut interest rates by 25 basis points). Shue also stated that she believed there would be more cuts after that day, specifically three more cuts next year, which she noted is largely in line with market expectations. She then provided justification based on the Fed’s dual mand ...

Join me now take a look back [music] at 2025 and look ahead into 2026. It's Jay Woods, chief global strategist [music] at Freedom Capital Markets, who's got his eye on the ball on what's set to move markets today, the rest of the year, and into next year. So today, let's start out with a look at Micron because I know you were across this one.Um, and I saw what your thought was. A little squeamish given the uh run it's had this year. It delivered a big earnings beat.Oh my gosh. Yeah. >> Uh the stock was alre ...

On December 12, Chris Hyzy, chief investment officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, appeared on CNBC’s ‘The Exchange’ to discuss the market outlook in 2026. Hyzy stated that he is not worried about the market and characterizes 2026 as the year of a proud bull, not a stampeding one. He defined a proud bull as one that looks back and acknowledges all the hard work put in, referencing not just the last 12 months, but almost the last 36 months, during which the market has seen a lot and been impa ...

Do you remember when the cryptobull market ended. Many say it happened on October 10, the day of the biggest liquidation event in history. While billions in retail positions were wiped out, one player seemed to know exactly what was coming.A single whale walked away with about $200 million in profit. And it wasn't the only one moving. Around the same time, large Bitcoin holdings, some untouched for years, suddenly began to shift.That synchronized activity raised an uncomfortable question. If whales can anti ...

Bitcoin is in an uptrend, the bull is still running, but a bear confirmed entry, and an explosive storm may be on its way, according to Tony Severino, market analyst at fintech platform YouHodler. Ethereum is weak compared to Bitcoin, but this is about to change. At the same time, 2026 will be a massive year, perhaps BTC’s “most decisive” yet. According to Severino, Bitcoin is, by definition, still in an uptrend. Yet, overhead resistance is stacked. Bitcoin could try to reclaim the 50-week moving average ...