Market Cycle Analysis - The Bitcoin cycle exists, but its correlation with time-based assumptions is diminishing, with other factors becoming more relevant [4] - The 4-year halving cycle still exists as a technical component of Bitcoin, but its relationship with price appreciation or depreciation is weakening [3] - The market has witnessed an occasional 35% correction [2] Impact of ETFs - Bitcoin ETFs have introduced nearly 60,000 BTC in liquidity, changing the price dynamics of Bitcoin [5] - Institutional demand through ETFs has established a new Bitcoin price floor, more than 100% higher than the previous one [6] Macroeconomic Factors - Bitcoin is a high Beta risk-on asset that performs well during economic growth but struggles during social and economic unrest or when Gold accelerates [8] - Liquidity cycles before 2008 averaged 8-10 years, contrasting with the 4-year liquidity cycle observed after 2008 [11] Correlation Analysis - The strength of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) against the US Dollar (USD) is a core indicator of strength for businesses in the US and the global economy, impacting risk-on investment behavior [15] - Historically, bottoms in CNY/USD have coincided with bottoms in ETH/BTC [15] - Comparing current cycles to previous ones suggests the Bitcoin cycle might be extended, potentially mirroring the middle of 2016 or 2019 [17] Future Outlook - Looking forward to 2026-2027, several factors suggest a potentially bullish outlook, including Bank of America opening up Bitcoin ETF allocations, the Clarity Act enabling DeFi solutions for institutions, and the FED potentially lowering interest rates [21][22] - The current stage is comparable to Q1/Q2 2016 or Q4 2019, suggesting the market is nowhere near a top [20]

Bitcoin Cycle Analysis - The Bitcoin cycle, often based on the 4-year halving cycle, is a core investment dynamic in Web3, but its relationship with price appreciation is diminishing due to other factors [1][3] - The market experienced a 35% correction, highlighting the ongoing debate between bulls and bears regarding the 4-year cycle's validity [2] - The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has significantly altered the price dynamics, injecting nearly 60,000 BTC in liquidity and establishing a new price floor more than 100% higher than the previous one [4][5] Macroeconomic Factors - Macroeconomic headwinds, including quantitative tightening (QT) and high interest rates, continue to influence the Bitcoin cycle [6] - Bitcoin's performance is inversely correlated with the strength of Gold, as it thrives during economic growth but struggles during social and economic unrest [7] - Liquidity cycles were significantly longer before 2008, averaging between 8-10 years, suggesting the current cycle might be in the middle of a larger bull cycle [9] Correlation and Future Outlook - The correlation between the strength of the Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) and Ethereum against Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) may indicate an extended Bitcoin cycle, potentially mirroring the mid-stages of 2016 or 2019 [12][13][14][15] - Combining the business cycle with Bitcoin cycles suggests the market might be in the middle of a peak bear phase, comparable to Q1/Q2 2016 or Q4 2019 [17][18] - Looking forward to 2026-2027, factors like Bank of America's allowance for Bitcoin ETF allocation, the Clarity Act, and potential quantitative easing (QE) suggest a less bearish outlook than the traditional 4-year cycle would indicate [19][20]

Group 1 - Core viewpoint indicates that three macro signals have shifted, suggesting potential implications for both traditional and crypto markets [1] - Inflation remains steady at an annual rate of 2.5%, close to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, indicating stabilization rather than resurgence [1][2] - Consumer data shows uneven pressure in sectors like grocery and insurance, highlighting a disconnect between aggregate inflation and real-world experiences [2] Group 2 - Liquidity appears frozen due to the US government shutdown, which has removed over $200 billion from the financial system [3] - The Treasury General Account has increased from approximately $800 billion to over $1 trillion, tightening funding across banks and money markets [3] - Analysts suggest that once the government shutdown is resolved, liquidity could surge, potentially benefiting fiscal and market conditions [4]

RT Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien)Ok, let’s get one thing straight…Delinquency rates on credit card loans (or otherwise) are not a leading indicator. The ISM is not a leading indicator. PMIs are not a leading indicator. Heavy truck sales are not a leading indicator. Job openings are not a leading indicator. Consumer confidence is not a leading indicator. Small business confidence is not a leading indicator. Durable goods orders are not a leading indicator. Capital goods orders are not a leading indicator ...

Investment Strategy - Long-term holders should focus on the increasing digitalization trend [1] - The key question is whether tomorrow will be more digital than today [1] - For a time horizon of 5 years or more, short-term liquidity and business cycles are less relevant [1] Market Analysis - The need to finance $10 trillion in the next 12 months is a crucial factor [1] - The liquidity and business cycle should be monitored to assess market conditions [1]

Liquidity & Business Cycle - US government debt's weighted average maturity increased by 25% from 4 years to 5 years starting in 2022 [1] - Increased debt maturity suggests a potential extension of both the liquidity cycle and the business cycle [1] Financial Conditions - GMI's lead indicator work, specifically the GMI Fin Conditions Index, supports the idea of extended cycles [1]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic debate continues regarding whether the economy is heading towards a recession or a significant rebound [1] - Demand in the One-Way segment has been generally steady and seasonal, with positive momentum observed in the Dedicated and Logistics business, particularly in the second quarter [2] - Fleet growth in the Dedicated segment has been notable, with a successful streak of new client acquisitions across various verticals, indicating a trend towards increased reliability [3]

Market Analysis - The altcoin market has been stagnant since Q4 2023, leading to expectations of continued stagnation [7] - The market's dependence is shifting from halving events to macroeconomic factors and the business cycle [3] - Current market correction is similar to past corrections before significant upward movements, suggesting a potential build-up for a breakout [4][5] Investment Strategy - Portfolio construction should be based on portfolio and risk management rather than timing the market [5] - The end of the bear market for both altcoins and the business cycle suggests an upcoming bull run [7] - Bull runs and bear markets are expected to be longer than previous cycles, potentially leading to a significant bubble followed by an extended bear market [8] Technical Indicators - Bull cycle peak indicators, sentiment, and Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) do not currently signal an overvalued market [3]