As the calendar flips to a new year, you’ve set a clear goal for the next 12 months: positioning yourself to become a homeowner in 2026. You’ve thought about the neighborhood, the commute and maybe even the garden or the décor. But long before you take a step through your future front door, your finances need to be ready. That preparation matters even more as the housing market begins to shift. Recent Realtor.com data show inventory has been rising for more than two years, giving buyers more options than ...

Core Insights - The current housing market is characterized as the strongest buyer's market in over a decade, with a significant surplus of sellers compared to buyers [1][2] - The gap between sellers and buyers reached an estimated 36.8% in October, marking the largest disparity since 2013, indicating a pronounced buyer's market [2] - Despite the favorable conditions for buyers, many potential homebuyers are priced out of the market due to eroding affordability, raising questions about the true nature of the buyer's market [3] Market Conditions - Redfin defines a buyer's market as having at least 10% more sellers than buyers, and the current market conditions reflect this definition [2] - The last comparable buyer's market occurred in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis when home prices significantly declined [2] - Nationally, home prices were still 1.2% higher in September compared to the previous year, although they are approximately 50% higher than five years ago, prior to the pandemic [4] Affordability Challenges - Housing affordability is identified as the primary challenge facing real estate firms, surpassing other industry concerns such as operational costs [3] - Lower-income potential homebuyers are particularly affected by an uncertain job market, sluggish wage growth, and deteriorating financial conditions, leading to decreased demand for homes [5] - The K-shaped trend in consumer spending indicates that higher-income groups are faring better, while lower-income groups face significant barriers in the housing market [5]

Core Insights - Zillow's September 2025 housing market report indicates an unexpected surge in real estate activity during a typically slow season, driven by a dip in mortgage rates and a strong stock market [1][4] - New listings increased by 3% year over year in September, reversing a 3% decline from the previous month, while monthly listings dipped by only 2%, outperforming the historical average of a 9% decline [1][2] Inventory and Market Dynamics - Total inventory decreased by 1% from August to September but is 14% higher than the same period last year [2] - The balance of power is shifting, with 15 of the 50 largest metropolitan areas now classified as buyer's markets, up from six last year [2] Buyer and Seller Markets - Zillow's heat index identifies the top buyer-friendly metropolitan areas, while seller-leaning markets remain competitive due to limited housing supply and restrictive land-use regulations [3] - The best seller's markets include major cities such as Miami, New Orleans, Austin, and San Francisco [6] Economic Indicators - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped to approximately 6.19%, the lowest point of 2025, contributing to improved affordability [4] - Existing-home sales reached a seven-month high in September, indicating a potential thaw in the housing market rather than overheating [4][5] Future Outlook - Zillow's economists anticipate that the "unseasonably active" fall will extend into the holiday season, fueled by easing borrowing costs and pent-up demand [5] - This period may represent the first significant opportunity for buyers in nearly three years [5]

Housing Market Assessment - CNBC launched a quarterly housing market survey to understand neighborhood-level real estate dynamics beyond national statistics [1] - The survey gathers insights from real estate agents across various neighborhoods [1] Buyer and Seller Dynamics - Half of the agents reported a buyer's market due to increased inventory and nervous sellers [2] - 89% of agents had at least one seller who reduced prices [2] - Some sellers chose to delist their homes from the market [2] Future Outlook - Most agents are optimistic about sales in the next quarter, expecting them to improve or remain stable [3] - A small number of agents anticipate a decrease in sales [3] - Falling mortgage rates are a key factor driving optimism [3] - Potential buyers are waiting on the sidelines, anticipating further declines in mortgage rates [3] Mortgage Rate Impact - Increased demand is expected when mortgage rates fall below 6% [4]

Housing Market Slowdown & Incentives - Home builders are offering incentives like lower interest rates to attract buyers in a slow market [1][5] - 65% of home builders offered incentives last month [2] - The housing market is experiencing a slowdown in both home sales and construction pace [2] - High mortgage rates near 7% at the beginning of the year contributed to the slowdown [2] Affordability & Buyer's Market - The housing market is affordability-constrained due to a 40-45% increase in home prices during the pandemic [3] - Summer marked the strongest buyer's market since 2013 [4] - Low levels of existing home sales are observed due to strained affordability [4] - The number of unsold new finished houses is at the highest level since 2009 [4] Regional Variations & Builder Strategies - Increased housing inventory is seen in regions that experienced booms during the pandemic, such as Texas and Florida [5] - Builders are offering incentives to move inventory in these regions [5] - Builders may spend $30,000-$50,000 or more on incentives like buy-down deals, potentially saving home buyers 10% or more [6]

Market Trends - UK housing stock reaches a 10-year high, indicating a buyer's market [1] - Increased housing supply puts pressure on new home developers in Britain [1]

Core Insights - The Sydney real estate market is experiencing significant differentiation, with some buyers benefiting from lower mortgage rates and rare price discounts on properties [1][3] - Many buyers are closing deals at prices 10% below the listing price, saving over 100,000 AUD, which is uncommon since the COVID-19 pandemic [3][5] - Certain areas, particularly central Sydney apartments and detached houses along train lines, are identified as "high discount zones" where buyers have increased bargaining power [3][10] Market Trends - SuburbData's analysis indicates that Merrylands West and Rosebery are areas with particularly high discounts on apartment sales, with discounts averaging 15% and 13% respectively [4] - In contrast, the average discount for private treaty sales across Sydney is only 1-2%, while auction prices typically exceed price guides [5] - Buyers in areas like Hurstville, Epping, and Surry Hills are purchasing apartments at an average of 10% below the listing price, while Rockdale buyers are seeing discounts close to 9% [5] Buyer Sentiment - Recent buyers have expressed disbelief at the favorable prices they are securing, with one buyer in Rockdale feeling fortunate to have found a great apartment at a lower price [6][8] - A family in Revesby managed to purchase a duplex at 10.5% below the listing price, highlighting the potential for significant savings in the current market [8] Regional Disparities - Conversely, other regions in Sydney are seeing properties sell above the listing price, such as Sutherland where buyers pay an average of 13% over the listing price [10] - In North Kellyville and Ingleburn, properties are also selling above the listing price by 10% and 11% respectively, indicating a competitive market driven by high demand [10] Future Outlook - Mortgage brokers suggest that the current favorable buying conditions may be short-lived, as declining interest rates could quickly heat up market demand [10] - There is a notable increase in pre-approved loans for investors, with some looking to purchase through self-managed super funds due to improved cash flow capabilities [10]