ING Groep (NYSE:ING) Q4 2025 Earnings call January 29, 2026 03:00 AM ET Speaker0Good morning. This is Laura welcoming you to ING's 4Q 2025 conference call. Before handing this conference call over to Steven van Rijswijk, Chief Executive Officer of ING Group, let me first say that today's comments may include forward-looking statements, such as statements regarding future developments in our business, expectations for our future financial performance, and any statement not involving a historical fact. Actual ...

Investor Day December 10, 2025 Forward-looking Statements This presentation and statements by our management may constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are statements that include, without limitation, statements regarding our strategic initiatives, priorities, plans and vision; our acquisition of Sandy Spring Bancorp, Inc. ("Sandy Spring") and expectations with regard to the benefits of the Sandy Spring a ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net profit of EUR 6 billion over the past four quarters, contributing an additional two percentage points to the CET1 capital ratio [6] - The four-quarter rolling average ROE stands at 12.6%, with an upward revision of the full-year ROE outlook to more than 12.5% [5][11] - Total income for 2025 is expected to reach around EUR 22.8 billion, with fee income growth raised to more than 10% [10][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail banking saw a net core lending growth of EUR 8.6 billion, primarily driven by residential mortgages [4][13] - Wholesale banking also delivered strong growth, with a significant increase in lending and trade finance services [4][13] - Fee income grew by 15% year on year, with wholesale banking achieving a quarterly record fee income of EUR 383 million [12][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer balances grew at an annualized rate of 7% in the first nine months of 2025, aligning with the company's 4% annual growth target [5] - Core deposits declined slightly by around EUR 200 million, attributed to seasonal spending patterns and the conclusion of promotional campaigns [13][27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain an attractive shareholder return supported by a 50% dividend payout policy while investing in value-accretive growth [9] - The CET1 capital ratio target has been revised to around 13%, providing a buffer above the MDA threshold [8] - The company is focused on enhancing operational efficiencies and integrating generative AI capabilities across its services [17][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength and quality of the loan book, despite macroeconomic uncertainties [19] - The outlook for 2025 has been improved, with expectations for higher fees and stronger total income [10][21] - Management remains committed to supporting clients in their sustainability transitions, with sustainable finance volumes up 29% compared to the previous year [5] Other Important Information - The company announced a EUR 1.6 billion distribution, including a new share buyback of EUR 1.1 billion and a cash dividend of EUR 500 million [7][21] - The company is actively investing in AI to enhance customer support and streamline processes [18][39] Q&A Session Summary Question: On capital requirements and retail deposit outflows - Management indicated no additional pressure on capital requirements and attributed retail deposit outflows to seasonal effects and the conclusion of marketing campaigns [23][25][27] Question: On lending margins and AI initiatives - Management expects lending margins to normalize and emphasized that AI initiatives are being rolled out globally, not just in the Netherlands [29][30][32] Question: On tech investments and M&A focus - Management confirmed ongoing investments in AI for KYC processes and stated that M&A focus remains on enhancing market relevance and capital efficiency [36][39][88] Question: On fee growth and capital updates - Management noted strong fee growth momentum and confirmed that capital updates will follow the established cadence of Q1 and Q3 updates [80][82] Question: On deposit campaigns and retention rates - Management confirmed retention rates were consistent with historical averages and expressed confidence in the return on investment from recent campaigns [91][92]

Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of €6.1 billion [8] - Fee income reached €1,165 million, a 12% increase compared to 9M2024 [5] - Return on Equity was 12.6% [5] Commercial Growth - Mobile primary customers increased by 197,000 [5] - Net core lending grew by €14.2 billion [5] - Sustainable volume mobilised reached €110 billion for 9M2025 [5] Capital Management - The CET1 ratio stood at 13.4% [8] - A regular dividend of €3.1 billion was distributed [8] - Cash and share buybacks amounted to €4.5 billion [8] Outlook and Strategy - The company anticipates a return on equity exceeding 12.5% for the full year 2025 [58] - Total income for 2025 is projected to be approximately €22.8 billion [23]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, the company reported earnings of $0.73 per share, with total loans growing by 1% quarter-over-quarter and 3% year-over-year [8][10] - Net interest income reached a record $305 million in Q3, up 16% compared to 2024, while the net interest margin held steady at 3.04% [10][21] - The return on average tangible common equity improved to over 14%, a 250 basis point increase from Q3 of the previous year [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Commercial and industrial (C and I) loans grew by nearly $300 million in Q3 and by almost $1 billion year-to-date, leading the growth in total loans [9][15] - Core customer deposits increased by over $600 million in Q3, with a year-over-year growth of 4% or $1.2 billion [10][16] - Non-interest income for Q3 was $81 million, a 21% increase from the prior quarter, driven by capital markets revenue and wealth fees [10][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company added $600 million in core deposits in Q3, contributing to a decrease in reliance on wholesale funding, which fell by 2% compared to Q2 [16] - The overall wholesale funding sources decreased, indicating a shift towards more stable funding sources [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on organic growth, particularly in commercial lending and deposit acquisition, by hiring talented relationship managers in underpenetrated metro markets [12][13] - The strategy includes remixing the balance sheet to replace low-yielding residential mortgages with higher-yielding commercial loans, enhancing profitability [13][14] - The company aims to maintain a conservative credit culture while proactively managing existing portfolios and emerging risks [7][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to grow and deepen its customer base despite macroeconomic uncertainties [8][12] - The outlook for 2026 remains positive, with expectations for continued growth in C and I loans and core deposits as non-compete agreements expire [12][19] - Management is closely monitoring credit quality and macroeconomic factors, maintaining a high degree of confidence in the loan portfolio [29][31] Other Important Information - The company expects total bank loan growth of 5% to 6% for the year, with a focus on maintaining credit discipline [15][19] - Capital ratios increased, with the CET1 ratio rising to 10.33%, indicating a strong capital position [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: What happens when the remaining RMs come off their non-compete? - Management expects growth rates to accelerate as production is up 12% and the pipeline is up 31% [35][36] Question: Can you discuss the fee income and expectations for Q4? - Fee income can be lumpy, and a one-time asset gain in Q3 is not likely to repeat at the same level, but underlying capital markets and commercial production are expected to remain strong [39][40] Question: How do you see the return on average tangible common equity improving further? - Management believes there are opportunities to continue improving the return on equity, especially with the hiring of new talent and the response to rate cuts [41][42] Question: What drove the modest increase in deposit costs in Q3? - The increase was attributed to seasonality and higher pricing accounts coming back into play, but overall, management is comfortable with the net results [49][50] Question: What is the outlook for loan growth in residential and commercial real estate? - Residential loans are expected to continue running off, while commercial real estate payoffs may remain elevated, but new construction lending is increasing [59][62] Question: Is the company considering M&A for growth? - The focus remains on organic growth, but the company is open to opportunistic acquisitions if they align with its strategy [66] Question: How is the lending pipeline performing? - The increase in the lending pipeline is primarily due to new hires and market share gains rather than borrower optimism [72][74]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Horizon Bancorp Inc. reported net interest margin expansion for the eighth consecutive quarter, with an exit run rate in September above 4% [5][16] - The net interest margin increased by 29 basis points to 3.52% for the quarter, with expectations to expand further in Q4 to a range of 4.15%-4.25% [19][26] - The allowance for credit losses decreased to $50.2 million, representing an allowance to credit loss to loans held for investment of 1.04% [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net loan total for investment decreased to $162 million, primarily due to a $210 million impact from the runoff and sale of indirect auto loans, while commercial loans grew by $58 million [9][10] - The combined relationship-based fee income categories of service charges, card, and mortgage income increased from the third quarter [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core relationship balances in the deposit portfolio remained resilient, with planned outflows in higher-cost non-core transactional accounts [14] - The company anticipates a decline in deposit balances in Q4, primarily due to the targeted reduction of high-cost non-relationship balances [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on profitable loan growth and maintaining excellent credit quality as a cornerstone of its success [7] - Horizon Bancorp Inc. aims to create durable returns and sustainable long-term value for shareholders through disciplined capital management and potential M&A opportunities [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in delivering superior community banking performance and capital generation metrics moving into 2026 [6][30] - The company is optimistic about growth opportunities in Michigan and Indiana, leveraging its strong brand reputation and community banking model [40][60] Other Important Information - The company has seen a significant positive increase in performance in September, indicating strong momentum heading into Q4 [7] - Non-interest income was materially impacted by balance sheet actions, including a $299 million loss in the sale of securities [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on the new narrative for Horizon Bancorp Inc. and strategic emphasis - Management highlighted a focus on positive capital stewardship and a more efficient, de-risked balance sheet that will generate capital at a greater pace [36] Question: Potential outlets for capital outside of organic loan growth and M&A - Management indicated that M&A will focus on franchises that add to the current profitable franchise, with potential targets in Michigan and Indiana [39][40] Question: Balance sheet being rate neutral - Management clarified that while the balance sheet is modestly asset-sensitive, they do not expect significant impacts from rate changes [45] Question: Trends in credit quality and areas of stress - Management noted that non-performing loans increased slightly, but overall credit quality remains satisfactory with no significant areas of concern [70][74] Question: Loan growth outlook for 2026 - Management expects mid-single-digit growth primarily from organic commercial growth, without the need for significant additional headcount [87] Question: Capital accretion and buybacks - Management stated that while buybacks are an option for creating shareholder value, they are not a priority in the near term following recent capital raises [91]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Horizon Bancorp Inc. reported net interest margin expansion for the eighth consecutive quarter, with an exit run rate in September above 4% [5][16] - The net interest margin increased by 29 basis points to 3.52% for the quarter, with expectations to expand further in Q4 to a range of 4.15% to 4.25% [19][26] - The allowance for credit losses decreased to $50.2 million, representing an allowance to credit loss to loans held for investment of 1.04% [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net loan total for investment decreased to $162 million, primarily due to a $210 million impact from the runoff and sale of indirect auto loans, while commercial loans grew by $58 million [9][10] - The combined relationship-based fee income categories of service charges, card, and mortgage income increased from the previous quarter [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core relationship balances in the deposit portfolio remained resilient despite planned outflows from higher-rate transactional accounts [14] - The company anticipates a decline in deposit balances in Q4, primarily due to the targeted reduction of high-cost non-relationship balances [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on creating durable returns and sustainable long-term value for shareholders through disciplined capital management and profitable loan growth [6][30] - Horizon Bancorp Inc. is considering M&A opportunities that are accretive to its community banking platform, with a focus on franchises that enhance profitability [37][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in delivering superior community banking performance and capital generation metrics moving into 2026 [6][30] - The company is monitoring economic conditions closely, with future provision expenses driven by anticipated loan growth and credit quality trends [12] Other Important Information - The company executed a balance sheet restructuring that exceeded initial expectations, optimizing securities and loan portfolios [4][6] - Non-interest income was impacted by a $299 million loss in the sale of securities and a $7.7 million loss on the sale of the indirect auto loan portfolio [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the new narrative for Horizon Bancorp Inc.? - Management indicated that the company is positioned to generate capital at a greater pace and will focus on measured deployment strategies for growth, including potential M&A opportunities [35][36] Question: Are there any other potential outlets for capital outside of organic loan growth and M&A? - Management confirmed that M&A will be a focus, targeting franchises that add to the current profitable platform, with potential sizes ranging from $300 million to several billion dollars [38][40] Question: How does the company support its rate-neutral position? - Management explained that while the balance sheet is modestly asset-sensitive, they do not expect significant impacts from rate changes due to their deposit positioning [44][45] Question: What are the trends in credit quality? - Management noted that non-performing loans increased slightly, but overall credit quality remains satisfactory, with no significant areas of stress identified [70][74] Question: What is the outlook for loan growth in 2026? - Management anticipates mid-single-digit growth primarily from organic commercial growth, with no immediate need for significant headcount increases [87][88]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Horizon Bancorp's net interest margin expanded for the eighth consecutive quarter, with an exit run rate in September above 4% [5][16] - The net interest margin increased by 29 basis points to 3.52% for Q3, with expectations for further expansion in Q4 to a range of 4.15% to 4.25% [17][19] - Net loans held for investment decreased by $162 million, primarily due to the runoff and sale of the indirect auto loan portfolio [10] - The allowance for credit losses decreased to $50.2 million, representing an allowance to credit loss to loans held for investment of 1.04% [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Commercial loans increased by $58 million, representing a 7% annualized growth for the linked quarter [10] - The combined relationship-based fee income categories, including service charges, wealth, card, and mortgage income, performed well and increased from the previous quarter [6] - Noninterest income was impacted by a $299 million loss in the sale of securities and a $7.7 million loss on the sale of the indirect auto portfolio [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core relationship balances in the deposit portfolio remained resilient, with planned outflows in higher-cost non-core transactional accounts [14] - The deposit portfolio is expected to decline in Q4 due to the targeted reduction of high-cost non-relationship balances [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to deliver durable returns and sustainable long-term value for shareholders through a disciplined operating model and focus on profitable growth [31] - Horizon plans to pursue logical and accretive M&A opportunities that enhance its community banking platform [37][40] - The company is focused on maintaining a strong credit profile while pursuing steady, diversified growth [11][88] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in delivering superior community banking performance and peer-leading capital generation metrics moving into 2026 [7][31] - The company is monitoring economic conditions, with future provision expenses driven by anticipated loan growth and credit quality trends [13] Other Important Information - The company has made significant improvements in its securities portfolio, reducing credit risk and increasing liquidity [20] - The effective tax rate for Q4 is expected to be in the range of 18% to 20% due to stronger pretax income [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on the new narrative for Horizon and strategic emphasis - Management highlighted a new focus on positive capital stewardship and a well-positioned balance sheet for capital generation [36][37] Question: Potential outlets for capital outside of organic loan growth and M&A - Management indicated that M&A opportunities would focus on franchises that add to the current profitable franchise, with a size range of $300 million to several billion dollars [39][40] Question: Trends in credit quality and areas of stress - Management noted that nonperforming loans increased slightly, but overall credit quality remains satisfactory, with no significant areas of concern [68][70] Question: Loan growth outlook for 2026 - Management anticipates mid-single-digit growth primarily from commercial lending, with no immediate need for significant additional headcount [88][89] Question: Capital accretion and buybacks - Management confirmed that buybacks are considered a potential option for creating shareholder value but are not the immediate focus [92]

Financial Performance - The company achieved double-digit growth across key financial metrics, with new business profit increasing by 12% to $1.3 billion and operating profit after tax per share growing by 12% [3][28][29] - Gross operating free surplus generation rose by 14%, marking a significant inflection point in capital generation [4][29] - The dividend per share increased by 13% to 7.71¢, reflecting strong financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns [4][29] Business Lines Performance - New business profit in Hong Kong rose by 16%, driven by growth in both agency and bank assurance channels [9][32] - Indonesia saw exceptional growth with new business profit up 34%, benefiting from a strong agency and bank assurance performance [11][32] - The health segment reported a 13% increase in new business profit and earned premiums, with over 300,000 new health customers acquired [15][32] Market Performance - In Malaysia, bank assurance performed strongly, but agency contributions were lower, leading to an overall decline in new business profit [33] - Across growth segments, new business profit was up 11%, driven by strong performances in Taiwan, Thailand, and African markets, partially offset by Vietnam [12][32] - The company remains optimistic about its Mainland China business, focusing on quality growth and effective risk management [10][32] Strategic Direction and Industry Competition - The company is focused on high-quality sustainable growth and enhancing shareholder returns through a revised capital allocation framework [5][26] - Strategic priorities include strengthening distribution capabilities, particularly in agency and bank assurance, and enhancing customer engagement [7][24] - The company is well-positioned to capture growth opportunities in high-growth markets such as Greater China, ASEAN, India, and Africa [2][24] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving 2025 guidance and 2027 objectives, emphasizing disciplined execution of strategy [3][25] - The company is committed to returning over $5 billion to shareholders between 2024 and 2027, reflecting strong capital generation [5][55] - Management highlighted the importance of quality new business and effective management of in-force products to drive future growth [23][55] Other Important Information - The company has invested $400 million in modernizing technology and capabilities since launching its five-year strategy in 2023 [20][21] - The agency force remains a key strength, contributing 55% of new business profit, with ongoing efforts to enhance recruitment and training [16][18] - The company is leveraging AI and digital platforms to improve productivity and customer engagement [19][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for new business profit growth in the second half of the year? - Management expects growth to normalize in the second half due to strong prior year comparators, particularly in Indonesia [11][32] Question: How is the company addressing challenges in Malaysia and Vietnam? - The company has clear plans to rebuild momentum and strengthen its position in both markets, focusing on agency performance improvements [20][32] Question: What is the outlook for the Mainland China business? - Management is optimistic about the Mainland China business, prioritizing quality growth and effective risk management [10][32]

Financial Performance - Attributable profit reached £2.5 billion in H1'25, an 18.5% increase compared to H1'24[5, 10] - Total income, excluding notable items, increased by 13.7% to £8.0 billion in H1'25[5, 10] - Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) improved to 18.1% compared to 16.4% in H1'24[5, 10] - Earnings per share increased by 28% to 30.9p in H1'25[5] Balance Sheet Strength - Customer loans increased by 3.2% to £384 billion compared to December 2024[5] - Customer deposits increased by 1.0% to £436 billion compared to December 2024[5] - Assets Under Management (AUMA) increased by 5.9% to £52 billion compared to December 2024[5] - The CET1 ratio is strong at 13.6%[5, 8] Strategic Initiatives - The group added 1.1 million customers, including over 100,000 organically, bringing the total to over 20 million[7] - The group delivered £110 billion of Climate and Sustainable Finance and introduced a new £200 billion Climate and Transition Finance target[7] - A £750 million share buyback program was announced, equivalent to 40bps of surplus capital[8]