格隆汇1月13日｜荷兰国际银行分析师Francesco Pesole在一份报告中表示，英镑近期对欧元的涨势可能 难以维持，因英国央行可能比市场预期更早再次降息。他指出，英国央行可能在三月再次降息，这将导 致未来几个月英镑兑欧元汇率水平逐步回落。数据显示，市场尚未完全定价六月前降息一次。Pesole补 充道："欧镑汇率已经跌至0.8700以下，这在我们的模型中属于短期适度低估区间。" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the probability of the domestic central bank following the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates has increased, with a higher likelihood of implementation after the end of October [1][4] - External constraints are weakening, creating a "maneuvering space" for monetary policy, as the narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential reduces the risk of capital outflow, thus opening a window for monetary easing [2] - The current low net interest margin of commercial banks and rising real interest rates pose internal constraints on further interest rate cuts, making the central bank cautious about comprehensive rate reductions [3] Group 2 - The bond market is showing signs of stabilization after three months of adjustments, and there is an expectation for a new round of smooth declines in bond market rates entering the fourth quarter [1][4] - Investors are advised to prepare for defensive strategies and consider entering the market around the 10-year government bond yield of 1.8% [1][4]