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【燕京啤酒(000729.SZ)】改革红利持续释放,土地收储款进一步增厚利润——2025年度业绩预告点评(陈彦彤/汪航宇/聂博雅)
光大证券研究· 2026-01-21 23:07
Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, driven by both operational improvements and additional income from land reserve payments [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.584 to 1.742 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 65% [4]. - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 1.457 to 1.561 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 40% to 50% [4]. - For Q4 2025, the company anticipates a net loss attributable to shareholders ranging from 29 million to 187 million yuan [4]. Group 2: Operational Improvements - The rapid growth in net profit is attributed to enhancements in the main business operations and the recognition of land reserve payments, which contribute approximately 132 million yuan to net profit [5]. - The company has maintained a net profit growth rate exceeding 50% for four consecutive years, significantly outperforming the industry average [5]. - The net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 15.32%, which is still below the industry average, but improvements are expected as reforms progress [5]. Group 3: Product and Channel Strategy - In response to a slowing beer production growth rate, the company is optimizing its product structure and sales channels, focusing on high-end and youth-oriented strategies [6]. - The flagship product, Yanjing U8, continues to see rapid sales growth, becoming a key driver of revenue [6]. - The company is implementing a three-tier product architecture that includes high-end, mid-range, and regional specialty products, alongside differentiated offerings like non-alcoholic beer and beverage combinations [6]. - The channel strategy emphasizes "full-channel integration and regional deep cultivation," with initiatives like the "Hundred Cities Project" to tap into strong market potential and accelerate expansion into emerging markets [6].