Vi e w p o i n t | 06 Nov 2025 20:34:04 ET │ 9 pages China Economics China Export Tracker (27): No Export Relief from Tariff Relief? CITI'S TAKE We update our high-frequency trackers of Chinese exports up to Nov 2nd . The tariff relief post the presidential summit seemingly has not provided much relief to China's direct exports to the US. Tariff uncertainty could also rise with IEEPA ruling pending at the Supreme Court. The help from tariff reduction to exports could be a 2026 story, in our view. Meanwhile, ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Exports and Trade Dynamics - **Key Focus**: The impact of renewed tariff concerns on China's export performance, particularly to the US Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Export Performance**: China's exports to the US have declined, with a notable drop of **-14.7% YoY** in containership departures for the US during the 15 days ending October 15, compared to a **-4.2% YoY** decline a week prior [2][13] 2. **US Import Bills**: There has been a significant decrease in US import bills for seaborne imports from China, which fell by **-28.2% YoY** in the week ending October 11, down from **-9.9% YoY** a week earlier [2][9] 3. **Overall Cargo Volume**: China's total cargo throughput decreased by **-2.8% YoY** in the week ending October 12, a decline from **8.8% YoY** growth the previous week [3][14] 4. **Container Export Volume**: The container export volume from China saw a decline of **-10.1% YoY** in the week ending October 10, although this was an improvement from **-15.1% YoY** a week earlier [3][11] 5. **Regional Trade Momentum**: There are signs of softening in regional export momentum, with containership arrivals at ASEAN ports decreasing to **6.4% YoY** in the week ending October 15, down from **8.7% YoY** previously [3][15] 6. **Future Outlook**: There are concerns about downside risks to exports as regional trade momentum weakens and the base effect may negatively impact export growth into Q4 2025 [1][3] Additional Important Information - **Trade Tensions**: The ongoing tariff concerns and trade tensions are expected to persist, particularly as the APEC summit approaches, which could further impact trade dynamics [2] - **Analyst Insights**: Analysts from Citi Research have highlighted the importance of monitoring these trends closely, as they could influence investment decisions and market sentiment [1][4] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of China's export dynamics amid ongoing trade tensions.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Export Tracker** and the implications for **US-China trade** dynamics, particularly concerning Chinese exports to the US and overall cargo throughput trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Decline in Exports to the US**: Exports to the US are at risk of declining from a "tentative trough," with a significant contraction of **-31.1% YoY** in containership departures for the US in the 15 days ending September 9, down from **-25.7% YoY** a week prior [2][13] 2. **Deterioration in Import Bills**: US import bills for seaborne imports from China decreased by **-32.7% YoY** in the week ending September 3, indicating weakening demand despite the extension of the trade truce [2][14] 3. **Cargo Throughput Trends**: Overall cargo throughput increased by **7.2% YoY** in the week ending September 7, an improvement from **4.3% YoY** the previous week, but this was the only positive indicator among the tracked metrics [3][6] 4. **Container Export Volume Decline**: Container export volume data showed a decline of **-3.0% YoY** in the week ending September 5, compared to **9.0% YoY** a week earlier, suggesting a downward trend in export activities [3][10] 5. **Containership Arrivals at ASEAN Ports**: There was a slowdown in containership arrivals at ASEAN ports, which decreased to **4.8% YoY** in the week ending September 8 from **8.3% YoY** a week prior, indicating potential regional trade challenges [3][12] Additional Important Insights 1. **Supply Chain Shifts**: The shift in the supply chain for consumer electronics aimed at US markets may negatively impact China's direct exports to the US as the shipping season begins in September [2] 2. **Volatility in High-Frequency Data**: The high-frequency data may exhibit additional volatility due to seasonal weather events, which could further complicate the export landscape [3] 3. **Global Trade Resilience**: Despite the challenges, global trade activities may remain resilient, supported by a broad-based pickup in Manufacturing PMIs, although concerns about end-US demand persist [3] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the China-US trade relationship and the broader implications for the export industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Export and Trade - **Key Focus**: High-frequency data tracking of Chinese exports and cargo throughput as of August 20, 2023 Core Insights 1. **US-China Tariff Situation**: Tail risks associated with US-China tariffs have been largely mitigated due to the official extension of the tariff truce, although demand uncertainty from the US remains a concern [2][2][2] 2. **Container Ship Departures**: There was a year-on-year decline of -9.4% in container ship departures from China to the US for the 15 days ending August 20, slightly improving from -12.6% a week prior [2][2][13] 3. **US Import Bills**: Seaborne import bills from China to the US remained stable at approximately US$1.3 billion, reflecting a decline of -19.4% year-on-year [2][2][14] 4. **Cargo Throughput Trends**: Overall cargo throughput growth in China softened to 2.6% year-on-year for the week ending August 17, down from 6.8% the previous week, indicating the impact of a high base from the previous year [3][3][6] 5. **Containership Arrivals**: Containership arrivals at ASEAN ports grew by 3.7% year-on-year for the week ending August 20, a decrease from 7.6% the week before, suggesting a similar high base effect [3][3][12] Additional Important Details 1. **Overall Cargo Throughput**: The overall cargo throughput expanded by 3.1% year-on-year in the first three weeks of August, compared to 10.9% year-on-year in July, indicating a significant slowdown [3][3][3] 2. **Market Volatility**: Despite the defusion of tariff risks, volatility in China's direct exports to the US may increase in the coming months due to ongoing concerns regarding US demand [2][2][2] 3. **Analyst Contact Information**: Analysts involved in the report include Xiangrong Yu, Xinyu Ji, and Yuanliu Hu, with their contact details provided for further inquiries [4][4][4] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call regarding the current state of Chinese exports and trade dynamics, particularly in relation to US-China relations and market conditions.

Summary of China's Exports (June 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on China's export performance across various industries, highlighting significant year-over-year (YoY) growth in specific sectors and regions. Key Points Export Growth Statistics - China's overall export value increased by **6% year-to-date (YTD)** YoY as of June 2025 [8] - Notable YoY growth in specific goods: - Natural rubber: **+450%** - Aluminium ore: **+243%** - Electroplating machines: **+155%** [13] Sector Contributions - The sectors contributing most to YoY incremental exports in June included: - Low-value simplified exports/imports: **+16% YoY** - Semiconductors: **+11% YoY** - Other semiconductors: **+9% YoY** [19] Regional Export Performance - Exports to various regions showed mixed results: - **Africa**: +21% YoY - **ASEAN**: +13% YoY - **Latin America**: +7% YoY - **Europe**: +5% YoY - **United States**: -11% YoY [11] Declines in Specific Markets - Exports to the US and Mexico decreased by **16%** and **13%** YoY, respectively [3] - The healthcare and consumer sectors recorded the largest declines in exports to the US and Mexico [3] Sector-Specific Insights - Utilities was the only industry to record YoY growth in exports to both the US and Mexico [3] - In the EU, miscellaneous goods drove growth, while rare earth and tobacco saw an increasing share of exports [4] - Exports to ASEAN were driven by miscellaneous goods and autos, with battery materials and rare gas showing increased shares [5] Notable Sector Performance - The **healthcare sector** faced significant challenges, with pharmaceuticals experiencing a **-52%** decline in exports to the US [29] - The **automotive sector** showed varied performance, with passenger vehicles down **-69%** YoY in June [29] Incremental Export Value Breakdown - The top sectors contributing to incremental export value in June included: - Low-value simplified exports/imports: **16%** - Semiconductors: **11%** - Electrical equipment: **8%** [19] Summary of Key Sectors - **Technology**: +11% YoY - **Consumer**: -2% YoY - **Industrials**: +13% YoY - **Basic materials**: +7% YoY - **Utilities**: +57% YoY [9] Conclusion - The report indicates a complex landscape for China's exports, with significant growth in certain sectors and regions, while others face substantial declines. The data suggests a need for strategic adjustments in response to changing global market dynamics.