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花旗:中国出口追踪_ 风暴夏季前噪音渐增
花旗· 2025-06-23 02:09
CITI'S TAKE We update our high-frequency trackers of Chinese exports up to Jun 18th . Direct shipments to the US seemed to have found a tentative trough in the past week. We remain cautious on the outlook for China-US exports, with the usual peak season ahead of us. Overall cargo throughput data was more mixed, likely a result of weather events. Transshipment via ASEAN could be experiencing a temporary retreat as flagged earlier. A tentative trough for shipments to the US — Containership departure for the U ...
高盛:中国_5 月出口增长放缓,因对美出口持续下降
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-10 02:16
9 June 2025 | 1:37PM HKT China: Export growth moderated in May on continued drop in US-bound exports Bottom line: China's trade growth moderated in May despite the substantial tariff rollback between the US and China, and came in below consensus expectations (exports: +4.8% yoy, imports: -3.4% yoy). The moderation in headline export growth reflects the continued fall in China's exports to the US with another 17% sequential decline after seasonal adjustment. The decline in imports appears widespread, consist ...
高盛:美国关税影响追踪 - 某些高频趋势表明更多进口将到来
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-04 01:50
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - The report indicates a potential surge in freight volumes from China to the US, driven by expected increases in imports at the Port of Los Angeles, with vessel traffic projected to rise by 6% and TEUs by 39% in the coming weeks [3][4][5] - Trade uncertainty remains high due to recent court involvement over tariffs, which could impact inflation, consumer spending, and global freight flows [2][7] - The report outlines three potential scenarios for trade dynamics in 2025, with a focus on the implications of a 90-day tariff pause with China [10][11][12] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Freight Trends - The report tracks high-frequency data to assess the ongoing impact of tariffs on global supply chains, noting that while there has been a recent decline in freight volumes from China, a rebound is anticipated [5][6][14] - Container rates have shown volatility, with a recent uptick followed by flattening, indicating potential shifts in demand and supply dynamics [15][38] Trade Volume Analysis - Year-over-year (YoY) comparisons show a significant drop in laden container vessels from China to the US, with a decrease of 37% YoY and TEUs down by 34% YoY [22][14] - The report estimates that April saw an increase of approximately $4 billion in imports compared to the previous year, while May experienced a decline of about $3 billion [4][61] Future Scenarios and Economic Implications - The report presents two broad scenarios for 2025: a pull-forward surge in activity or a continued slowdown due to uncertainty, impacting inventory levels and freight demand [7][11] - Potential outcomes include a strong second half of 2025 if consumer demand rebounds or a bear case scenario if economic conditions worsen [12][15] Company-Specific Insights - Companies such as FedEx, UPS, and freight forwarders like Expeditors International and C.H. Robinson are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of increased freight activity during periods of volatility [15][85] - The report notes that intermodal traffic has declined by 5% YoY, reflecting ongoing challenges in the transportation sector [47][15]
Alibaba Vs. PDD Holdings: There's Only One Winner In The Tariff Standoff
Seeking Alpha· 2025-05-27 16:47
Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the impact of China's mixed macroeconomic outlook, escalating trade tensions with the U.S., and intensifying competition on consumer-facing Chinese stocks, leading to volatility in the market [1] - Recent earnings results from industry giants, particularly Alibaba Group, reflect the challenges faced by the sector amid these macroeconomic conditions [1]
高盛:美国关税影响追踪 - 高频趋势应指向中国方面的逆转,但还需一周观察
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-20 05:38
19 May 2025 | 5:00AM EDT Americas Transportation: US Tariff Impact Tracker – High Frequency Trends Should Point to China Reversal - But Need Another Week US Tariff Impact Tracker – Net, net, the world order has shifted once again demonstrating the roiling impact of tariffs and tariff direction on week-to-week sentiment as to how it will impact global freight flows. With the China 90 Day deal, we once again are of the perception that pull-forward – at least in part – will re-emerge as the dominant action in ...
高盛:中国贸易数据看板 2025 年第一季度:美国对等关税宣布前出口量增长强劲
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-06 02:43
1 These are based on BOP definitions; the goods trade surplus would be 4.8% of GDP in 2025 (vs. 5.2% in 2024) based on the Customs definition. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) ...