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2025年出货量下调至2.73万台
傅里叶的猫· 2025-12-14 12:37
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the AI industry chain, focusing on infrastructure, algorithms, and applications, while providing insights from recent reports by Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan regarding ODM manufacturers' performance and shipment forecasts. ODM Manufacturers' Performance and Shipment Analysis - Morgan Stanley ranks ODM manufacturers for GPU AI servers as Wistron > Hon Hai > Quanta [2][18] - Morgan Stanley's latest forecast for GB200/300 rack shipments is adjusted to 27,300 units, down from 28,000 units, primarily due to updates following Quanta's Q3 earnings call [2] - Quanta's management indicates a conservative outlook for AI revenue growth in Q1 2026, leading to a downward adjustment of their Q4 2025 rack shipment forecast from approximately 3,500 to 2,500 units [7] - Despite Quanta's adjustment, Wistron shows strong growth, leading to a slight increase in overall rack shipment forecasts for Q4 2025, from 8,000-8,500 to 13,500-14,000 units [7] Company-Specific Revenue Insights - Quanta reported November revenue of approximately NT$193 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 11% and a year-on-year increase of 36%, driven by GB200/300 rack shipments expected to reach 1,000-1,100 units [13] - Wistron achieved a record revenue of NT$281 billion in November, with a month-on-month increase of 52% and a year-on-year increase of 195%, attributed to significant increases in L10 computing tray shipments [14] - Hon Hai's November GB200 rack shipments remained stable at approximately 2,600 units, with expectations of a decline in December due to year-end holidays, maintaining a forecast of 7,200 units for Q4 2025 [15] 2026 Preliminary Outlook - The forecast for rack shipments in 2026 is challenging, but Morgan Stanley has adjusted its estimate to 70,000-80,000 units, up from 60,000-70,000 units, based on anticipated inventory carryover of approximately 2 million Blackwell chips [17] - Morgan Stanley maintains the ranking of ODM manufacturers as Wistron > Hon Hai > Quanta, noting that actual deliveries may be lower than predicted due to assembly and testing times for L11 racks not being included in the estimates [18]