Core Insights - Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) faced significant challenges in Q3 2025 due to record-high cocoa costs, resulting in a $796 million drop in adjusted gross profit at constant currency and a sharp decline in adjusted gross profit margin to 30.4%, down 1,010 basis points [1][9]. Group 1: Cocoa Costs and Profitability - The decline in adjusted gross profit and margins was primarily driven by increased raw material and transportation costs, along with an unfavorable product mix [2][9]. - The company indicated that Q3 represented the peak of cocoa inflation for the year, with recent signs of cocoa prices beginning to moderate due to a stronger crop [2][9]. Group 2: Pricing Strategies and Consumer Sensitivity - Despite the potential for lower cocoa prices to alleviate some pressure, earlier price hikes, particularly in Europe where chocolate prices rose by about 30%, have made consumers more price-sensitive, with elasticity increasing to approximately 0.7 to 0.8 [3][9]. - To address this sensitivity, Mondelez is adjusting pack sizes and resetting price points to make products more appealing to consumers [3]. Group 3: Promotional Challenges and Productivity - Mondelez faced challenges with promotional efforts that did not meet expectations, compounded by retailer margin pressure and shifts in consumer shopping behavior [4]. - The company emphasized the importance of productivity, noting that cost savings in manufacturing and overhead helped mitigate the impact in Q3, and continued progress in this area will be crucial for 2026 [4][5]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Performance - Mondelez's shares have declined by 8.2% over the past three months, underperforming the industry decline of 7.6% and the broader Consumer Staples sector's drop of 5% [6]. - The company currently trades at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 17.9, above the industry average of 14.66, raising concerns about the justification of this multiple given the uncertain pace of margin recovery and ongoing cost pressures [10].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 26% increase in net sales compared to the same period last year, with organic constant currency net sales growth of 26.3% driven by net price realization of approximately five points and volume growth of approximately 21 points [26] - Adjusted gross margin decreased by five to ten basis points to 38.1% due to commodity inflation and incremental tariff expenses, although gross margin was higher than expected due to timing of cocoa hedges and lower tariff expenses [30][37] - Adjusted earnings per share declined by 4.7% year over year, impacted by incremental commodity costs and a higher tax rate [34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America Confectionery segment net sales grew by 32%, with volume increasing by 25%, benefiting from Easter timing and inventory changes related to ERP system implementation [27] - North America Salty Snacks segment net sales increased by 8.8%, with volume growth of over 4% driven by brands like Dots and Skinny Pop [28] - The International segment saw a 4.4% increase in net sales, but volume growth was below expectations due to category softness in Mexico and lower export demand [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Hershey's U.S. retail sales for candy, mint, and gum increased by 21.8%, outpacing the category growth of 17.9% [8] - The company gained approximately 90 basis points in market share, with everyday chocolate retail takeaway accelerating to 6.7% [9] - In the International segment, constant currency net sales increased double digits in Brazil, while growth in Europe was mid-single digits, led by the U.K. [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to be a leading snacking powerhouse, with a focus on balanced growth and mitigating cocoa inflation through productivity and strategic pricing [7][19] - Hershey announced a new price action on its U.S. Confection portfolio, which represents roughly 80% of total net sales, expected to deliver an estimated 16 points of pricing contribution [23] - The company is implementing a Smart Complexity initiative to simplify packaging and optimize manufacturing efficiency, raising its savings target to $400 million [25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the underlying trajectory of the business, expecting robust results to continue in the second half of the year [19] - The company anticipates adjusted earnings per share to decline between 36% and 38% for the year, reflecting higher cocoa costs and tariff expenses [37] - Management remains hopeful for improvements in tariff conditions over time, although no relief is planned for 2025 [36] Other Important Information - The company announced the appointment of Kirk Tanner as the new President and CEO, effective August 18, following Michele Buck's retirement [5][6] - Hershey's advertising and related consumer marketing expenses increased by 35.5% in the second quarter, reflecting the timing of expenses in prior years [30] - Capital expenditures for the second quarter were $231 million, with full-year expectations between $425 million and $450 million [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for cocoa prices and inflation? - Management indicated that cocoa prices remain volatile and elevated, with expectations of inflation in cocoa input costs year over year in 2026 [20][21] Question: How is the company addressing tariff impacts? - The company has embedded incremental tariff costs in its full-year outlook and is taking steps to mitigate tariff exposures over time [36] Question: What is the outlook for the International segment? - The full-year constant currency segment net sales growth outlook for the International segment remains low single digits, with expectations for reacceleration in the second half [18]

Core Viewpoint - Mondelez International reported a decline in adjusted earnings and revenues in Q4 2024, primarily due to increased cocoa inflation and operating costs, leading to a downward revision in future earnings estimates [2][8][10]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings for Q4 2024 were 65 cents per share, a 15.9% decrease on a constant-currency basis, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 66 cents [2]. - Net revenues increased by 3.1% year over year to $9,604 million, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9,691.7 million [3]. - Organic net revenues grew by 5.2% year over year, driven by a 5.1 percentage point increase in net pricing [3]. Regional Performance - Revenues from emerging markets rose 1.7% to $3,640 million, with a 6.7% organic growth, supported by favorable pricing actions [4]. - Developed markets saw revenues increase by 4% to $5,964 million, reflecting solid growth from Europe and the U.S. [4]. - Region-wise, revenues in Latin America dropped 7.2%, while Asia, the Middle East & Africa, and Europe grew by 9.9% and 5.8%, respectively [5]. Cost and Margin Analysis - Adjusted gross profit fell by $440 million at constant currency, with the gross profit margin contracting by 650 basis points to 31.5% due to increased raw material and transportation costs [6]. - Adjusted operating income declined by $396 million at constant currency, with the operating income margin contracting by 510 basis points to 10% [7]. Future Outlook - Mondelez projects organic net revenue growth of around 5% in 2025, but expects adjusted EPS to decline by nearly 10% due to cocoa cost inflation [8]. - The company anticipates a double-digit increase in inflation for 2025, primarily driven by cocoa costs and labor expenses [9]. - Estimates for Mondelez have been trending downward, with a consensus estimate shift of -15.95% [10]. Industry Comparison - Mondelez belongs to the Zacks Food - Miscellaneous industry, where another player, Sysco, reported a revenue increase of 4.5% year-over-year [13].