2月26日，加密货币市场在经历了一段时期的剧烈震荡后，于本周三展现出强劲的复苏势头。RYOEX认 为，比特币成功重返68500美元上方，不仅抹去了周初跌至63000美元下方的跌幅，更标志着市场极端悲 观情绪的阶段性终结。随着加密恐惧与贪婪指数在整个2月长期处于"极端恐惧"区间，这种超卖状态为 多头反击积蓄了充足的能量，从而引发了覆盖主流代币及关联资产的全面修复行情。 在资金博弈层面，过去24小时内全网杠杆看跌头寸遭强平的金额接近4亿美元，针对这一显著的市场出 清，RYOEX表示，永续合约融资费率此前多次转负，意味着空头头寸过度拥挤，使得市场在价格启动 时极易发生剧烈的空头挤压。值得关注的是，尽管价格涨势显著，但目前比特币永续合约融资费率仍保 持在低位，这反映出本轮上涨并非完全由投机杠杆驱动，而是伴随着真实买盘的介入，市场结构相对健 康。 关联资产的表现同样抢眼，稳定币巨头Circle受业绩推动大涨29%，Coinbase及Strategy等机构重仓标的 亦录得双位数或接近双位数的涨幅。RYOEX认为，Coinbase溢价指数在时隔40天后首次转正，以及美 国现货比特币ETF录得2.577亿美元的单日资金净流入 ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin has shown a strong recovery, reaching $95,000, but there are significant regional differences in capital flows, particularly a slowdown in demand in the U.S. market [1][2] - The negative Coinbase premium index indicates a divergence from Bitcoin's price increase, suggesting that the current rally is primarily driven by overseas markets [1][3] Market Dynamics - The negative premium reflects a cautious sentiment among U.S. institutional and retail investors, with Coinbase prices consistently lower than those on Binance, indicating unresolved selling pressure in the U.S. [2][3] - Historically, strong demand from the U.S. market has been a key driver for Bitcoin's price surges, but this momentum appears to be waning in 2026 [3] Regulatory Impact - The core reason for the demand gap is the uncertainty surrounding the Clarity Act, a significant piece of legislation in the crypto regulatory space, which has been delayed until the end of January [2][4] - U.S. investors are opting to hold off on investments until a transparent legal framework is established to avoid potential compliance risks, leading to a lack of "U.S. strength" in the current Bitcoin rally [4] - The progress of the Clarity Act is expected to be crucial in breaking the current deadlock, with potential bipartisan support that could unleash pent-up investment demand in the U.S. market [4]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a stagnation in its momentum towards reaching $90,000 due to insufficient demand and weak on-chain activity, although new technical patterns suggest that a breakthrough above this level could enhance market momentum [2]. Demand and Market Activity - The actual demand for Bitcoin has turned negative, dropping to its lowest level since October, with Capriole Investment's indicator showing a significant decline in demand over the past two weeks, reaching -3,491 BTC [3]. - Since November 6, Bitcoin's actual demand had been positive, peaking at approximately 18,700 BTC on November 26, but has since sharply decreased, indicating weakening market demand [3]. - The Coinbase premium index, which measures the price difference between BTC/USD on Coinbase and BTC/USDT on Binance, has also seen a significant drop, falling from 0.031 on December 11 to -0.08 currently, indicating increased selling pressure from U.S. retail investors [6][8]. Price Resistance and Market Sentiment - For Bitcoin to achieve upward momentum in the new year, actual demand and purchasing power among U.S. investors must recover, with a critical resistance level at $90,000 that needs to be breached to trigger an upward trend into 2026 [4][10]. - The market is currently facing the risk of a "red" annual close for the first time post-halving, with BTC/USD trading down 6.6% from the beginning of the year at $93,300 [9]. - Analysts suggest that Bitcoin's bullish outlook hinges on the ability of bulls to break through the $90,000 resistance, which has been a strong support level in early December [10][12]. Technical Analysis and Future Projections - A potential hidden bullish divergence on the monthly chart indicates an upcoming upward breakout, with a favorable scenario if the monthly close is above $90,360 [15]. - A technical chart shared by Captain Faibik shows that a breakout from the $90,000 level, coinciding with an upward trend line on the 8-hour timeframe, could lead to a price surge towards a target of $122,000 [17]. - Other market analysts believe Bitcoin may continue to consolidate within a range until market volatility returns and clearer chart patterns emerge [19].