Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has shown a strong recovery after a period of volatility, with Bitcoin successfully returning above $68,500, erasing earlier losses below $63,000, signaling a potential end to extreme pessimism in the market [1][3] - The extreme fear in the crypto fear and greed index throughout February has created a buying opportunity for bulls, leading to a comprehensive recovery across major tokens and related assets [1][3] Market Dynamics - In the past 24 hours, nearly $400 million in leveraged short positions were liquidated, indicating a significant market clearing [1][3] - The perpetual contract funding rate for Bitcoin has been negative multiple times, suggesting an overcrowded short position, which can lead to severe short squeezes when prices start to rise [1][3] - Despite the notable price increase, the current low funding rate indicates that this rally is not solely driven by speculative leverage but is supported by genuine buying interest, reflecting a healthier market structure [1][3] Related Asset Performance - The performance of related assets has also been impressive, with stablecoin giant Circle surging by 29% due to strong earnings, and institutions like Coinbase and Strategy recording double-digit or near double-digit gains [2][4] - The Coinbase premium index has turned positive for the first time in 40 days, and the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $257.7 million in a single day, signaling a strong re-entry of U.S. institutional and retail investors [2][4] - Although Bitcoin faces some retracement pressure this year, altcoins like SOL and ADA have shown over 10% excess returns, indicating that active capital is seeking profits from high-beta assets [2][4] Market Outlook - With the return of U.S. buyers and improvements in ETF fund flows, the market appears to have completed a preliminary bottoming process [2][4] - The company RYOEX, which specializes in digital assets, will continue to monitor on-chain data and macro liquidity changes to identify growth opportunities in a volatile market cycle [2][4]

Core Insights - Bitcoin has shown a strong recovery, reaching $95,000, but there are significant regional differences in capital flows, particularly a slowdown in demand in the U.S. market [1][2] - The negative Coinbase premium index indicates a divergence from Bitcoin's price increase, suggesting that the current rally is primarily driven by overseas markets [1][3] Market Dynamics - The negative premium reflects a cautious sentiment among U.S. institutional and retail investors, with Coinbase prices consistently lower than those on Binance, indicating unresolved selling pressure in the U.S. [2][3] - Historically, strong demand from the U.S. market has been a key driver for Bitcoin's price surges, but this momentum appears to be waning in 2026 [3] Regulatory Impact - The core reason for the demand gap is the uncertainty surrounding the Clarity Act, a significant piece of legislation in the crypto regulatory space, which has been delayed until the end of January [2][4] - U.S. investors are opting to hold off on investments until a transparent legal framework is established to avoid potential compliance risks, leading to a lack of "U.S. strength" in the current Bitcoin rally [4] - The progress of the Clarity Act is expected to be crucial in breaking the current deadlock, with potential bipartisan support that could unleash pent-up investment demand in the U.S. market [4]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a stagnation in its momentum towards reaching $90,000 due to insufficient demand and weak on-chain activity, although new technical patterns suggest that a breakthrough above this level could enhance market momentum [2]. Demand and Market Activity - The actual demand for Bitcoin has turned negative, dropping to its lowest level since October, with Capriole Investment's indicator showing a significant decline in demand over the past two weeks, reaching -3,491 BTC [3]. - Since November 6, Bitcoin's actual demand had been positive, peaking at approximately 18,700 BTC on November 26, but has since sharply decreased, indicating weakening market demand [3]. - The Coinbase premium index, which measures the price difference between BTC/USD on Coinbase and BTC/USDT on Binance, has also seen a significant drop, falling from 0.031 on December 11 to -0.08 currently, indicating increased selling pressure from U.S. retail investors [6][8]. Price Resistance and Market Sentiment - For Bitcoin to achieve upward momentum in the new year, actual demand and purchasing power among U.S. investors must recover, with a critical resistance level at $90,000 that needs to be breached to trigger an upward trend into 2026 [4][10]. - The market is currently facing the risk of a "red" annual close for the first time post-halving, with BTC/USD trading down 6.6% from the beginning of the year at $93,300 [9]. - Analysts suggest that Bitcoin's bullish outlook hinges on the ability of bulls to break through the $90,000 resistance, which has been a strong support level in early December [10][12]. Technical Analysis and Future Projections - A potential hidden bullish divergence on the monthly chart indicates an upcoming upward breakout, with a favorable scenario if the monthly close is above $90,360 [15]. - A technical chart shared by Captain Faibik shows that a breakout from the $90,000 level, coinciding with an upward trend line on the 8-hour timeframe, could lead to a price surge towards a target of $122,000 [17]. - Other market analysts believe Bitcoin may continue to consolidate within a range until market volatility returns and clearer chart patterns emerge [19].