比特币（BTC）年末冲向9万美元的势头似乎因需求不足和链上活动疲软而陷入停滞。然而，新的技术形态表明，一旦BTC/USD突破9万美元，市场动能可 能会增强。 随着交易者和投资者在新年采取风险规避策略，比特币的实际需求已转为负值，降至10月以来的最低水平。 Capriole Investment的比特币实际需求指标显示，过去两周比特币需求大幅下降，周一降至-3,491枚BTC，与10月21日的水平相当。 自11月6日以来，比特币的实际需求一直保持正值，并在11月26日达到约18,700枚BTC的峰值，随后如下图所示急剧下降。负值表明市场需求正在减弱。 美国投资者的实际需求和购买力必须恢复，才能确保BTC在新年实现上涨势头。 比特币必须突破9万美元的直接阻力位，才能触发进入2026年的上行行情。 分析师Mv_Crypto在最近的X平台发文中指出："Coinbase $BTC 溢价指数仍在打印深红色柱状图，表明美国卖出压力尚未消退。"他进一步补充道："在该指 标恢复之前，接近多头方向需要保持极度谨慎。" 据Cointelegraph报道，现货比特币ETF资金持续流出，上周记录了7.82亿美元的资金外流，表明机构投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Geoffrey Kendrick from Standard Chartered predicts significant price increases for Bitcoin and XRP over the next two years despite a challenging 2025 for cryptocurrencies due to economic and geopolitical uncertainties [1][4]. Regulatory Environment - The Trump administration has enacted pro-cryptocurrency policies, including the establishment of a working group to enhance U.S. leadership in digital financial technology and the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve [4][5]. - The Genius Act, signed by Trump, provides a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, and the Clarity Act aims to clarify jurisdiction over digital assets [5]. - The SEC has formed a crypto task force and rescinded Staff Accounting Bulletin 121, which is expected to facilitate digital asset adoption by institutional investors [6]. Investment Thesis for Bitcoin - Bitcoin treasury companies, such as Strategy, have been significant demand sources, with Strategy holding 671,268 BTC [6]. - Kendrick forecasts Bitcoin will reach $225,000 by 2027, indicating a 155% upside from its current price of $88,000 [7]. - Spot Bitcoin ETFs are anticipated to become the primary demand driver, as they simplify access to Bitcoin for institutional investors [8][9]. Investment Thesis for XRP - XRP, utilized by Ripple for cross-border transactions, is projected to capture 14% of SWIFT's volume, potentially facilitating over $20 trillion in transactions annually [11][12]. - The approval of spot XRP ETFs has generated over $1 billion in assets under management, indicating growing interest among investors [14]. - Despite the potential, skepticism exists regarding XRP's adoption due to competition from stablecoins and a decrease in transaction volume since the launch of Ripple USD [12][13]. Comparative Outlook - The analysis suggests prioritizing Bitcoin over XRP for investment, with a belief that Kendrick's Bitcoin price target is more achievable than his XRP target [15].

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a widespread decline on November 14, with Bitcoin dropping by 2.51%, Ethereum by 5.86%, Ripple by 4.22%, and Dogecoin by 3.84% [1][2]. - In the last 24 hours, nearly 200,000 individuals faced liquidation in the cryptocurrency market [3]. Liquidation and Market Sentiment - The total liquidation in the past 24 hours reached approximately $760 million, with long positions accounting for $600 million and short positions for $150 million [4]. - Over the past month, the sell-off of spot Bitcoin ETFs has amounted to around $2.8 billion, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [4][5]. - 10X Research noted that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a bear phase, with Bitcoin and most related assets deeply entrenched in this trend [5]. External Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains cautious, with Cleveland Fed President suggesting that rates should remain stable to combat inflation [7]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is estimated at 51.6%, while the likelihood of maintaining current rates is at 48.4% [8]. - International oil prices have surged, with both NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent crude rising over 2% [5]. Gold Market - International gold prices have also seen an increase, with London gold prices rising above $4,200 [9].

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a widespread decline on November 14, with Bitcoin down 2.51%, Ethereum down 5.86%, Ripple down 4.22%, and Dogecoin down 3.84% [1][2]. - In the last 24 hours, nearly 200,000 individuals faced liquidation in the cryptocurrency market [3][4]. - The total liquidation in the past 24 hours amounted to approximately $760 million, with long positions accounting for $760 million and short positions for $600 million [4]. Market Sentiment and Trends - 10X Research indicated a prevailing bearish sentiment in the market, stating that Bitcoin and most crypto-related assets are deeply entrenched in a bear market [5]. - The market is under dual pressure from spot sell-offs and corporate hedging, leading traders to largely avoid altcoins [5]. - The recent sell-off of spot Bitcoin ETFs has reached approximately $2.8 billion over the past month, with expectations of further withdrawals if price momentum stagnates before the December Federal Reserve meeting [4][5]. Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester emphasized the need to maintain stable interest rates to combat persistent inflation, particularly affecting low- and middle-income households [6]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December stands at 51.6%, while the probability of maintaining current rates is at 48.4% [7]. - The White House indicated that the October employment report will be released, but it will lack unemployment rate data due to a federal government shutdown [7]. International Developments - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung announced an agreement with the U.S. regarding tariffs and security cooperation, including plans for South Korea to build nuclear submarines [8][9]. - The international gold price has also seen an increase, with London gold prices rising above $4,200 [10].

Group 1 - Grayscale Investments LLC has submitted a confidential IPO application to the SEC, aiming to leverage capital markets for cryptocurrency-related offerings [1][2] - The company currently manages over $33 billion in assets and offers more than 30 investment products, having launched the first publicly traded Bitcoin and Ethereum funds [1][2] - Grayscale is known for its pivotal role in advocating for the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., and it recently won a legal victory to convert its Bitcoin trust into the first direct Bitcoin ETF [2] Group 2 - The IPO application follows the recent confidential IPO submission by Gemini and the successful public listing of Circle, which has solidified the position of cryptocurrency in mainstream finance [2] - Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) has been surpassed in asset size by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), which has three times the assets of GBTC and a significantly lower management fee [3] - Bitcoin has recently reached record highs, surpassing $120,000, while the U.S. Congress is preparing to review important industry legislation during the upcoming "Crypto Week" [3]