Core Insights - A 20-year-old secured a $100,000 loan to purchase cattle, raising concerns about the decision-making process behind such a loan [1][2] - The young borrower has experience in the cattle business, having worked alongside his father for 10 years, which adds context to the loan [2] - The loan was secured against a $100,000 certificate of deposit (CD), indicating a level of financial backing [3] Financial Analysis - The decision to borrow against the CD rather than using the funds directly for purchasing cattle was criticized, as loans typically carry higher interest rates than CDs [4] - The caller's confidence in the beef market's stability over the next two years was viewed as overly optimistic and compared to gambling, highlighting the unpredictability of commodity prices [4][5] - Ramsey emphasized the importance of understanding supply and demand dynamics in the cattle market, noting that an oversupply could lead to lower beef prices, while high demand with fewer cattle could increase prices [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive stance on gold and copper, indicating potential investment opportunities in these sectors [7][10]. Core Insights - Copper is currently experiencing historical backwardation, with LME copper spot prices surpassing USD 10,000 per ton, driven by inventory depletion and redirection of shipments to the US [2]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export ban, which is expected to support cobalt prices in the near term [3][4]. - Aluminium output reached a new monthly high in May, supported by strong demand and improved smelter margins [5]. - Central banks are aggressively accumulating gold, with expectations for continued increases in official gold reserves over the next year [6]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper spot prices exceeded USD 10,000/t, with a backwardation of over USD 300/t for 3-month futures [2]. - Year-to-date inventory at LME has decreased by 180,000 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 115,000 tons due to tariff concerns [2]. - Ivanhoe has reduced its 2025 copper production guidance by 28% [2]. Cobalt - DRC's cobalt export ban has been extended by three months, impacting supply and supporting price stability [3]. - Cobalt prices surged over 60% following the initial ban and are expected to remain strong due to continued restrictions [3]. Aluminium - Aluminium production in May rose approximately 5% year-on-year to 3.83 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 4% [5]. - China's aluminium inventory dropped by around 400,000 tons over the past three months, indicating robust downstream demand [5]. Gold - Central banks have accumulated over 1,000 tons of gold annually, significantly higher than the average of 400-500 tons in the past decade [6]. - A survey indicates that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months [6]. Market Sentiment - Improved US-China trade talks have positively influenced market sentiment, particularly for base metals [10]. - Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the report suggests a preference for gold and copper investments among China materials [10].