August 22, 2025 05:50 PM GMT metal&ROCK | Europe M Idea Base Metals Round Up Modest downside for LME Copper: The support for LME copper prices that came from US front-loading demand ahead of expected copper import tariffs is likely to fade after the decision to exclude refined copper. We estimate front loading YTD added around 2% to annual copper demand, drawing down ex-US inventories and supporting prices, but now leaves the US very well stocked. China demand indicators are also softening, bringing a cauti ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Metals & Mining** industry, utilizing the **HOLT valuation framework** to analyze various sub-sectors and companies within this space [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Valuation Methodology - HOLT's valuation framework is based on a **discounted cash flow model**, emphasizing **Cash Flows Return on Investment (CFROI)** as a key metric for comparing performance across companies and time [1][13]. - The report suggests that there is no single valuation methodology for metals & mining; a combination of **short-term trading multiples (EV/EBITDA)**, cash returns, and **Net Present Value (NPV)** is preferred [1]. Sub-Sector Valuation Insights - **Gold**: - Gold stocks are seen as **undemanding** with market-embedded expectations around **6%**, compared to near-term CFROI forecasts of **~8%** [3][29]. - Top picks include **ABX**, **KGC** in North America, and **EDV** in Europe [3][31]. - **Aluminium**: - Aluminium stocks are viewed positively, trading at a **15-30% discount** to historical EV/EBITDA averages [4][36]. - Preferred stock for exposure is **NHY** [4][37]. - **Copper**: - Copper stocks are considered **expensive** with high market expectations, trading close to historical averages [5][50]. - Recent downgrades include **FCX**, **SCCO**, and **LUN** to Neutral, and **KGHM** to Sell due to a cautious outlook [5][51]. - **Diversified Miners**: - Market expectations are in line with forecasts at **~4%**, but these stocks trade at a premium compared to other sub-sectors [8][43]. - Preference for **GLEN** over **RIO**, **BHP**, and **Vale** due to better capital discipline [8][44]. - **Steel**: - EU steel stocks are pricing in low returns due to high capital intensity and regulatory uncertainties, while US steel stocks are expected to perform better due to protective tariffs [9][57]. - Preferred US steel stocks include **NUE** and **STLD** [9][57]. Additional Important Insights - The report highlights the **structural challenges** faced by the steel industry in Europe, including high costs related to CO2 emissions and energy [58][59]. - The **EU Steel Action Plan** may provide support for returns on decarbonization projects, potentially leading to a re-rating of the sector [60]. - The **HOLT methodology** does not assign ratings or target prices but serves as an analytical tool for evaluating company performance [66][67]. Conclusion - The Metals & Mining industry presents varied investment opportunities across sub-sectors, with specific stocks recommended based on their valuation relative to market expectations and forecasts. The report emphasizes a selective approach, particularly in the context of changing commodity prices and regulatory environments.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Aluminium and Alumina - **Geographical Focus**: Indonesia, China, India, and global markets Aluminium Market Insights - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: - Primary aluminium demand growth is expected to be around 2.5% for 2024/25, slightly below the trend of 3-4% [2] - Supply growth is anticipated to match demand, leading to a modest surplus in the global aluminium market [2] - Limited supply growth is expected due to China smelter run rates being at the 45 million tonnes (mt) cap, with potential projects in Indonesia, India, Middle East, and Africa contributing modestly over the next 2-3 years [2][8] - The LME price is above the cost curve, indicating an improving supply and demand outlook [2] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Preferred stocks for aluminium exposure include Hydro and Press Metal (BUY) while Alcoa and S32 are rated Neutral [1] - **Medium-Term Price Risks**: - Limited scope for the industry to quickly lift supply when demand improves, resulting in tighter markets and medium-term price risks skewed to the upside [2] Alumina Market Insights - **Price Trends**: - After a sharp decline in the first half of 2025, alumina prices have bounced back, trading between $370-380 per tonne [3][41] - Prices are expected to remain anchored to the cost curve due to significant overcapacity in China and additional supply from Indonesia and India [3][41] - **Supply Outlook**: - China is expected to add 7-10 million tonnes of new capacity in 2025, contributing to overcapacity [3] - Approximately 6 million tonnes of projects are ramping up in Indonesia, with an additional 2.5 million tonnes in India [3][35] Indonesia's Role in Aluminium Supply - **Capacity Additions**: - Indonesia is expected to be a significant contributor to global supply growth, with 2.2 million tonnes of new aluminium supply projected over the next 3-4 years [10][22] - Current projects in Indonesia are constrained by insufficient land and power, limiting overwhelming growth in supply [10][15] - **Power Constraints**: - Aluminium smelting is power-intensive, requiring approximately 15 terawatt-hours (TWh) of power for 1 million tonnes of capacity [11][13] - The planned 2.2 million tonnes of aluminium smelters would consume about 40% of the power currently used by the nickel industry, necessitating a 10% growth in national power output over 3-4 years [13] Risks and Considerations - **Alumina Supply Risks**: - The combination of additional supply from Indonesia and overcapacity in China is likely to limit sustainable upside in alumina prices [3][41] - Potential disruptions in bauxite supply from Guinea could create upside risks for alumina prices, but sustained tightness is not the central case [34] - **Market Dynamics**: - The aluminium market is closely monitoring the evolution of Indonesia's industrial parks and smelter project pipeline, with measured growth in aluminium supply expected rather than overwhelming growth [15] Conclusion - The aluminium market is characterized by limited supply growth and a positive fundamental outlook, while the alumina market faces challenges from overcapacity and price volatility. Indonesia's role as a growing supplier is significant, but power constraints and project development challenges may temper expectations for rapid supply increases.

Summary of J.P. Morgan Base Metals Supply & Demand Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the base metals market, particularly copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel, with a significant emphasis on Chinese demand and supply dynamics [1][7][8][11]. Key Points Chinese Copper Demand - Chinese copper demand has shown signs of deceleration, with a consumption-weighted end-use indicator reflecting approximately 4% year-over-year (yoy) growth in June, down from higher levels in May [9]. - The apparent consumption of copper in China increased by 12% in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong start to the year despite the recent slowdown [9]. - Inventory levels for copper remain low but stable, with refined copper production in June reaching 1.14 million tons, a 13% increase yoy [9]. Solar Power Capacity - Chinese solar installations peaked in May with 92.4 GW added, but fell sharply to 14.4 GW in June, a 36% yoy decline, due to a policy shift from fixed feed-in tariffs to market-driven pricing [5][9]. - The total installations for the first half of 2025 reached 212 GW, with a revised forecast for 2025 now estimating 270-300 GW, suggesting a potential 50% contraction in the second half of the year [5][9]. Aluminum Market - China's refined aluminum production increased by approximately 1% yoy to 43.7 million tons through June [8]. - Exports of unwrought aluminum and products fell by 7% in the first half of 2025 following the removal of the export tax rebate [8]. - Apparent demand in China for aluminum grew by 1.6% yoy, although growth has been decelerating since March [8]. Zinc and Nickel Markets - Chinese imports of zinc concentrate reached 2.5 million tons in the first half of 2025, up nearly 50% yoy, while smelter output increased by 7% yoy in June [10]. - Nickel remains in oversupply, with global cathode inventory covering 30 days of demand. Refined nickel exports from China were 95,000 tons in the first half of 2025, a 120% increase yoy [11]. Automotive Sector - Chinese passenger vehicle production increased by 14% year-to-date through June, with new energy vehicle (NEV) output growing by 40% yoy [6][9]. - The automotive sector continues to support metals demand, particularly in light of anti-involution initiatives [9]. Construction and Property Sector - Monthly property completions improved, with a yoy contraction narrowing to -2% in June from -19% in May, indicating a potential recovery in the construction sector [10]. - Year-to-date completions remain down 15% yoy through the first half of 2025 [10]. Policy and Economic Outlook - The July Politburo meeting indicated a policy shift towards structural rebalancing, focusing on boosting consumption without immediate additional easing measures [10]. - The overall economic environment remains cautious, with various sectors showing signs of slowing growth [10]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring trade flows, inventory levels, and utilization rates to gauge the fundamentals of the base metals market [1]. - The impact of global economic conditions and policy changes in China will continue to influence demand and supply dynamics in the base metals sector [1][10].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported underlying EBITDA of CHF11.5 billion and operating cash flow of CHF6.9 billion, with a net operating cash flow decrease of just 2% despite a drop in iron ore prices by $14 per tonne [8][12][29] - Copper equivalent production increased by 6% in the first half, with a notable 13% increase in the second quarter year on year [4][11] - Underlying earnings were down 16%, primarily due to higher interest charges and one-off increases in the effective tax rate [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Bauxite production reached a new record with a 9% growth, while copper equivalent production was up 6% overall [5][11] - The aluminium business showed strong performance, with unit revenue up 14%, and profitability doubled despite tariff impacts [20][81] - The iron ore segment generated $6.7 billion of EBITDA, with productivity improvements leading to the highest Q2 production since 2018 [20][29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that while iron ore prices are below historic averages, demand for copper and aluminium is rising due to the energy transition [14][31] - The demand for lithium is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase of close to 30% year on year [31][33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a diversified portfolio and strategic investments to drive profitable growth, with a strong emphasis on operational efficiency [4][29] - The strategy includes a disciplined approach to capital allocation, with CapEx guidance of around $11 billion in 2025 [25][28] - The company aims to leverage its strong social license to operate and enhance its project execution capabilities [6][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating global volatility and highlighted the resilience of the company's diverse asset base [9][31] - The company anticipates ongoing demand growth in the energy transition, particularly for copper and lithium, despite current price challenges [31][33] - Management emphasized the importance of continuous improvement and operational efficiency to maintain profitability [92][104] Other Important Information - The company has successfully integrated the Arcadian acquisition and is progressing well with lithium projects [36][88] - The Simandou project is on track to deliver its first shipment of high-grade iron ore in November, showcasing the company's project execution capabilities [38][39] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Simandou production ramp-up - Management indicated that the ramp-up to 120 million tonnes will take approximately 2.5 years, with the first shipment expected in November [50][52] Question: Impact of copper tariffs in the U.S. - Management noted that copper tariffs present an opportunity for profitability at the Kennecott smelter, which has historically underperformed [56][58] Question: Iron ore revenue impact from grade drop - Management stated that initial shipments under the new product specification have been well received, and the simplification of product streams will lead to long-term cost benefits [75][78] Question: Confidence in lithium cost curve - Management expressed confidence in achieving bottom quartile costs due to operational efficiencies and strong reservoir capabilities at Rincon [86][88] Question: Update on Genalco discussions - Management confirmed ongoing discussions regarding share buybacks but did not provide a specific solution at this time [95]

Financial Performance - Rio Tinto's underlying EBITDA was $115 billion, a decrease of 5% compared to H1 2024[20] - Underlying earnings decreased by 16% to $48 billion[20] - Operating cash flow decreased by 2% to $69 billion[20] - The interim dividend was $24 billion, representing a 50% payout ratio[20] Production and Sales - Bauxite production increased by 9% year-over-year in H1 2025[17] - Oyu Tolgoi copper production increased by 54% year-over-year in H1 2025[17] - Sales volumes of copper equivalent increased by 6%[20] - Iron ore price decreased by $14/t, a 13% reduction[21] Capital Allocation and Growth - Share of capital investment increased by 23% to $45 billion[26] - Simandou is accelerating first shipment to ~November 2025[17] - Oyu Tolgoi is on track to average ~500 ktpa of copper from 2028 – 2036[17] Commodity Market - Copper demand is up 3% to 13Mt, aluminium demand is up 3% to 37Mt, and lithium demand is up 28% to 713Kt[53] - Iron ore demand remained flat at 12Bt[53]

Summary of J.P. Morgan's China Metals Activity Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the metals industry in China, specifically tracking inventory trends for steel, iron ore, copper, aluminum, and zinc as of the week ended July 18, 2025 [1][11]. Key Insights 1. **Copper Inventory Trends** - China typically experiences significant destocking of copper inventories from now until September. However, recent data shows a slowing pace of inventory drawdowns, with copper inventories increasing by 3,000 tons last week [1][12]. - The five-year average indicates a normal destocking of approximately 200,000 tons of copper during this period [1][12]. 2. **Steel Mill Margins** - There has been a notable improvement in China steel mill margins over the last three weeks, leading to a ~10% increase in iron ore prices to $102 per ton. Average hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel mill margins have returned to profitability for the first time since early 2023 [2][9]. - Rebar margins are close to breakeven, marking the strongest profitability since early 2023 [2][9]. 3. **Iron Ore Shipments and Production** - Iron ore shipments to China from Australia and Brazil have shown mixed results, with Australian shipments down by 4.3% week-over-week but up 8.2% year-over-year. Brazilian shipments increased by 23.9% week-over-week but decreased by 11.3% year-over-year [4][2]. - Total iron ore arrivals in China increased by 13.7% week-over-week, indicating a robust demand [4][2]. 4. **Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Copper** - A potential 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports, effective August 1, could reduce U.S. demand by approximately 4%, translating to a 0.2% decline in global copper demand [3][12]. - The U.S. exports around 540,000 to 580,000 tons of copper scrap annually, which could help mitigate a primary deficit of 700,000 to 800,000 tons per annum, although increased recycling capacity may take 2-3 years [3][12]. 5. **Physical Demand Indicators** - Despite recent increases in copper, aluminum, and zinc inventories, overall inventories remain at their lowest levels in over five years for this time of year, indicating tight physical markets [12][13]. - China's copper premium has risen by 70% in the last two weeks, reaching approximately $50 per ton, although it remains significantly below the year-to-date high of $103 per ton [12][13]. Additional Observations - The report highlights that the next ten weeks will be critical for assessing the health of Chinese physical copper consumers, as historical trends suggest a shift towards improved demand during this period [12][13]. - The report also includes detailed tables and figures illustrating inventory levels, shipment data, and price forecasts for various metals, providing a comprehensive view of the current market dynamics [4][9][34]. Conclusion - The J.P. Morgan report provides valuable insights into the current state of the metals industry in China, highlighting trends in inventory, pricing, and the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on copper demand. The data suggests a complex interplay of supply and demand factors that investors should monitor closely.

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - July 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting the current state of demand and supply dynamics as of July 2025. Key Points Demand Trends - **End-user orderbooks** showed a mild month-over-month (MoM) increase but remained at low levels, indicating weak overall demand [1] - **Infrastructure construction** has weakened significantly, with a noticeable deceleration in new project starts due to ongoing funding constraints and stringent payment requirements [1] - **Metal demand** has softened, with signs of inventory buildup in the supply chain, influenced by seasonal softness and a sequential correction in domestic solar demand [1] - Current Chinese demand is reported to be **7-11% lower year-over-year (YoY)** for cement and construction steel, and **1-10% lower** for copper, flat steel, and aluminum [1] Supply Dynamics - The determination on supply adjustments remains mixed, with: - **Steel production cuts** beginning but with heterogeneous targets discussed [1] - Local government commitments on capacity elimination in cement being absent [1] - Marginal coal miners showing reluctance to cut production amid poor pricing [1] - Surprises in the oversupplied lithium market due to mining license approval inspections [1] - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for steel, coal, and lithium, while cement, aluminum, and copper prices have weakened [1] Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicated that **31% of respondents** in downstream sectors and **30%** in basic materials reported a MoM pickup in July, while **25%** and **24%** indicated a lower MoM trend, respectively [2] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the **importance of funding** in infrastructure projects, which is currently constrained, affecting new project initiations [1] - The **mixed signals** in supply adjustments suggest a complex market environment where producers are navigating between demand pressures and pricing strategies [1] Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is experiencing a challenging environment characterized by weakening demand, mixed supply responses, and significant pressures on pricing and margins across various materials. The insights from producer feedback and high-frequency data provide a nuanced understanding of the current market dynamics, indicating potential risks and opportunities for investors in this sector.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Key Project**: Construction of a new hydro station in Tibet with a total investment of Rmb1.2 trillion and an installed capacity of 60-70GW, which is three times that of the Three Gorges Dam [1][2][8] Core Insights and Arguments - **Capacity and Power Generation**: The new hydro station is expected to generate over 300TWh annually, with a construction timeline of 18-20 years, including 13 years for the main body and 5 years for auxiliary facilities [2][8] - **Material Demand**: The project will require 20-30 million tons of cement in total, with an annual demand of 1-1.5 million tons. Local companies such as Huaxin, CNBM, and Conch are positioned to benefit due to their proximity to the project [3][8] - **Cement Pricing**: Current cement prices in Tibet are Rmb500 per ton, significantly higher than the national average of Rmb330 per ton, indicating a favorable pricing environment for local producers [3] - **Impact on Metals**: The hydro station will increase demand for copper and aluminum due to the power equipment and cables required for power transfer. This could also stimulate local investments in data centers and other power-intensive projects [4][8] - **Thermal Power Impact**: Once operational, the hydro station may negatively affect demand for thermal power and thermal coal [8] Additional Important Points - **Beneficiaries**: Cement and steel sectors are direct beneficiaries during the construction phase, with local factories expected to receive orders [3][8] - **Investment Opportunities**: The project aligns with the 14th Five-Year Plan, which may lead to stronger-than-expected infrastructure demand [10][21] - **Risks**: Potential risks include weaker-than-expected property demand, government intervention in cement pricing, and production suspensions due to environmental regulations [13][18][22] Company-Specific Insights - **Anhui Conch Cement Co. Ltd**: Price target derived from A-share price target, with a higher A/H premium of 35% since 2023 [9] - **China National Building Material Company**: Price target based on a discounted cash flow model with a cost of equity of 13.5% [15] - **Huaxin Cement Co**: Price target derived using a discounted cash flow model, with a focus on demand in Hubei and Yunnan [22] Conclusion The construction of the hydro station in Tibet represents a significant investment opportunity for the materials sector, particularly for cement and metal producers. The project is expected to drive demand and pricing in these sectors while also posing certain risks related to market dynamics and government policies.

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Metals Weekly Report on U.S. Copper Tariffs Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. copper market and the implications of a proposed 50% tariff on copper imports, set to begin on August 1st, 2025 [1][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments Tariff Impact on Demand - A full pricing of the 50% tariff could lead to a 4% reduction in refined copper demand growth in the U.S. for the next year [1][13]. - U.S. copper demand constitutes only 6% of global demand, meaning a 4% decline in U.S. demand translates to approximately 0.2% of global demand [1][24]. - Current U.S. all-in copper prices are up by around 30% compared to the 3Q24 average, indicating a potential drag on demand growth of about 2.5% in the following year [19]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. exports 540-580 thousand metric tons (kmt) of copper contained in scrap annually, which could help reduce the 600-700 kmt import dependence on copper cathode [1][32]. - A scrap export ban could significantly harm the domestic scrap supply chain, shrinking the industry before it has a chance to grow [1][32][48]. - The U.S. has substantial copper project potential (~3 million metric tons per annum), but significant supply responses from new mines are not expected until the next decade due to long lead times [1][49]. Price and Market Reactions - The COMEX/LME arbitrage has remained static, with the premium of the September COMEX contract hovering between 25% and 28% [3]. - The anticipated tariff is expected to create a bearish pressure on LME prices in the second half of 2025, despite supportive medium-term fundamentals for copper prices, which are expected to remain above $9,000/mt [5]. Future Supply Considerations - The easiest way to increase U.S. primary copper supply is through solvent extraction/electrowinning (SX/EW) operations, which do not require additional smelting and refining infrastructure [1][51]. - The average lead time for mining projects in the U.S. is around 19 years, longer than the global average of 15.5 years, complicating the timeline for new supply [58]. Substitution and Demand Destruction - The report notes that both copper and aluminum are facing 50% tariffs, which diminishes substitution pressure between the two metals [25]. - Higher prices for both metals could lead to broader demand destruction rather than significant substitution trends [26]. Conclusion - The report suggests that while the proposed tariff will create challenges for U.S. copper demand and supply, it may also present buying opportunities for long-term investors as prices are expected to stabilize above $9,000/mt [5]. Additional Important Insights - The potential for exemptions from the tariff for countries like Indonesia could significantly impact U.S. copper import dynamics [4]. - The health of the U.S. manufacturing and construction sectors will continue to be the primary drivers of copper demand, alongside structural trends in utilities and data center builds [20]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the J.P. Morgan report regarding the implications of the U.S. copper tariffs on demand, supply, and market dynamics.