Alcoa forced to pay $38 million after illegally clearing Australian native forest | ReutersSkip to main content[Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionalsLearn more aboutRefinitiv]A shift worker at the Alcoa aluminium smelter leaves the plant during a shift change before sunrise at Point Henry in Geelong February 25, 2014. REUTERS/Jason Reed [Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab]SYDNEY, Feb 18 (Reuters) - U.S. aluminium company Alcoa [(AA.N), opens new tab] will pay A$55 milli ...

Group 1 - Rio Tinto Group (NYSE: RIO) is considered one of the best undervalued European stocks to buy, with an upgrade from Hold to Buy by Erste Group due to its superior return on equity compared to competitors [1] - Analyst Hans Engel predicts that Rio Tinto's sales will grow more strongly in 2026, with significant contributions from copper production in Mongolia [1] - The firm anticipates that silver production will increase alongside copper production, enhancing the company's growth prospects [2] Group 2 - Rio Tinto has met its 2025 production targets for all commodities, achieving copper output of 883,000 tonnes, which exceeds the upper end of its projection range of 875,000 tonnes [2] - The company reported record quarterly iron ore output in Western Australia's Pilbara region during the fourth quarter, with a 4% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - Rio Tinto's operations are segmented into Copper, Iron Ore, Aluminium, and Minerals [3]

The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to soften parts of its steel and aluminium tariff regime after mounting pressure from businesses, global allies, and lawmakers. As per a Bloomberg report, officials are reviewing duties imposed last year, especially those covering derivative products made with the metals, which companies say are difficult to calculate and enforce. ...

Core Insights - Hydro's adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was NOK 5,587 million, a decrease from NOK 7,701 million in Q4 2024, primarily due to lower alumina prices and a stronger NOK, partially offset by higher primary and alumina volumes and lower raw material costs [1][22] - The company generated NOK 4.6 billion in free cash flow and proposed a cash dividend of NOK 3.0 per share, representing 60% of the adjusted net income for 2025 [4][11] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for Bauxite & Alumina decreased to NOK 1,392 million from NOK 4,969 million year-on-year, mainly due to lower alumina sales prices and a stronger BRL against USD [12] - Adjusted EBITDA for Aluminium Metal increased to NOK 3,707 million from NOK 1,949 million year-on-year, driven by higher all-in metal prices and lower alumina costs [16] - Adjusted EBITDA for Energy decreased to NOK 1,075 million from NOK 1,151 million year-on-year, primarily due to lower price area gains [14] - Adjusted EBITDA for Metal Markets decreased to a negative NOK 56 million from NOK 319 million year-on-year, attributed to lower sourcing and trading results [17] - Adjusted EBITDA for Extrusions decreased to a loss of NOK 62 million from NOK 371 million year-on-year, driven by weaker sales margins [18] Operational Highlights - Alumina production at Alunorte exceeded nameplate capacity, supported by improved refinery flow and high equipment availability [3] - The ramp-up of previously curtailed capacity at Norwegian smelters continued, with quarterly production increasing by 2.5% year-on-year [3] - The strategic workforce reduction was completed, with around 850 employees leaving the company [8] Strategic Initiatives - Hydro signed two long-term power sourcing agreements covering 5.25 TWh for the period 2031 to 2040, crucial for its low-carbon aluminium strategy [5] - The company is investing NOK 1.2 billion in the Illvatn pumped storage plant project, its largest hydropower investment in over 20 years [6] - Hydro announced the consolidation of its Extrusions operations in Europe, confirming the closure of two plants in the UK scheduled for late 2026 [7] Market Conditions - Average Nordic power prices increased in Q4 2025 compared to both the previous quarter and the same quarter last year, driven by stronger seasonal demand and production outages [15] - Global primary aluminium consumption increased, with a 1.2% rise in world ex. China [16] - European extrusion demand was flat year-on-year but increased by 3% compared to Q3 2025, while North American extrusion demand was flat year-on-year but decreased by 8% compared to Q3 2025 [19][20]

分组1 - Wall Street analysts expect Reliance to report quarterly earnings of $2.80 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 26.1% [1] - Revenues are anticipated to reach $3.38 billion, which is an 8.2% increase from the same quarter last year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 0.3% in the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment of initial estimates by analysts [1] 分组2 - Analysts project 'Net Sales- Carbon Steel' to be $1.84 billion, representing a 9.5% increase year-over-year [4] - 'Net Sales- Alloy' is expected to reach $146.15 million, indicating a 2.1% increase from the prior year [4] - 'Net Sales- Stainless Steel' is forecasted at $476.93 million, showing a 0.8% increase compared to the previous year [4] 分组3 - The estimate for 'Net Sales- Aluminium' is $587.58 million, suggesting a 10% year-over-year change [5] - The average selling price per ton sold is projected to be $2275.56, up from $2170.00 in the same quarter last year [5] - The consensus estimate for 'Shipments (Tons sold)' stands at 1.51 million, compared to 1.44 million in the year-ago quarter [5] 分组4 - Analysts expect 'Tons Sold - Aluminium' to reach 77.25 thousand, an increase from 75.80 thousand reported last year [6] - The average prediction for 'Tons Sold - Stainless Steel' is 70.95 thousand, up from 67.70 thousand in the same quarter last year [6] - 'Tons Sold - Alloy' is estimated at 28.06 thousand, compared to 27.80 thousand from the previous year [7] 分组5 - 'Tons Sold - Carbon Steel' is projected to be 1.26 million, an increase from 1.19 million reported last year [7] - Reliance shares have increased by 14.2% in the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's decline of 0.3% [7] - Reliance holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating it is expected to closely follow overall market performance in the near term [7]

February 6, 2026 04:30 PM GMT metal&ROCK | Europe Copper: Stockpiling, Supply and Substitution Copper's micro factors still look challenging, with China demand weak, some focus on substitution and lower US imports. However, macro factors continue to dominate, with strategic stockpiling in focus and some disruptions coming through. Key Takeaways Strategic stockpiling in focus: The US launched Project Vault this week, a planned $12bn critical minerals stockpile which a White House official confirmed could inc ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged past $14,000 per metric ton, driven by speculation and mine disruptions, indicating potential supply shortages in the market [1] Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange reached a record high of $14,531.70 per ton, marking its largest single-day gain in years [1] - The three-month copper contract was at $14,354.33 per ton, reflecting a 9.4% increase from the previous close [1] - Copper prices rose 42% last year and gained an additional 12% in January, highlighting its role as a key economic indicator [1] Group 2: Economic Influences - Investor interest in base metals is driven by optimistic forecasts for economic expansion in the US and increased global investment in sectors like data centers and power infrastructure [1] - A weaker US dollar has made commodities cheaper for overseas buyers, contributing to the rise in copper prices [1] Group 3: Demand and Supply Concerns - Despite the price surge, there are concerns about a potential dip in industrial demand for copper, particularly as physical spot demand weakened in China [1] - The Yangshan copper premium, an indicator of Chinese demand for imported copper, fell to $20 per ton, down from $55 in December [1] Group 4: Aluminium Market Trends - Aluminium prices have increased by 27% over the last six months, reaching their highest level since April 2022 [1] - The three-month aluminium contract was at $3,322.50 per ton, up 1.6% from the previous close, with prices peaking at $3,355.35 per ton [1] - The aluminium market is expected to enter a deficit in 2026 due to ongoing supply limitations, with China's production hitting government-mandated limits [1]

Core Viewpoint - Vedanta Ltd is set to undergo a significant demerger into five independent companies, with the aim of listing them on stock exchanges by May 2024, following the approval from the National Company Law Tribunal [2][3]. Group 1: Demerger Details - The demerger will create five distinct entities: Vedanta Aluminium, Vedanta Oil & Gas, Vedanta Power, Vedanta Iron and Steel, and Vedanta Ltd, which will manage the zinc and silver businesses [3][4]. - The demerger is scheduled to take effect on April 1, 2024, with shares expected to be listed by May or before the end of June [2][3]. Group 2: Debt Allocation - Vedanta's total net debt is approximately ₹60,624 crore (around $6.7 billion), which will be distributed among the new companies based on their asset values and cash generation capabilities [4][5]. - Vedanta Aluminium is expected to carry the largest portion of the debt, while Vedanta Oil & Gas and Vedanta Iron and Steel will have minimal to no debt assigned to them [6][7]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Vedanta reported a record quarterly profit of ₹7,807 crore for Q3, marking a 60% increase year-on-year, with revenues reaching ₹45,899 crore, a nearly 20% rise from the previous year [8][9]. - The company's EBITDA also reached a record high of ₹15,171 crore, reflecting a 33% increase compared to the previous year [8][9]. - The aluminium segment achieved its highest EBITDA margin of $1,268 per ton, driven by record production levels [10].

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's Research on Metals and Mining Industry Overview - The report discusses the global mining equities sector, indicating it is on the verge of a new supercycle driven by increased demand for metals, particularly due to advancements in AI technology [2][10]. - Mining stocks have transitioned from being viewed as defensive investments to essential portfolio anchors, capable of capitalizing on changing monetary policies and geopolitical volatility [2]. Market Performance - Mining equities have outperformed the MSCI Europe index by approximately 60% since Liberation Day, with historical data showing that mining stocks typically outperform the market by around 100% following major equity market downturns [3][10]. - The report notes that the surge in metal prices in 2025/26 is primarily driven by supply-side shocks, with potential for further increases if China's demand for metals strengthens in 2026 [10]. China Metals Demand and Inventory Trends - Recent data indicates that China's demand for metals has been weak for the past nine months, with high inventory levels observed across various metals [6][14]. - As of January 23, 2026, copper inventories in China reached 305kt, the highest level for this time of year since 2021, indicating a stronger-than-usual restocking trend [14][41]. - Aluminum inventories also saw a build-up of 7kt, bringing total aluminum inventory to 743kt, which is at the upper end of historical averages [20][22]. - Zinc inventories increased by 0.2kt, with total zinc inventory at 111kt, also at the top end of historical averages [24][27]. Steel Production and Market Conditions - China's steel output for the 10 days ending January 20, 2026, showed an annualized run rate of 891Mt, which is a 2% decrease from the previous period and a 7% year-over-year decline, indicating a slowdown in production [29][36]. - Steel inventory levels remain high, flat week-over-week, and up 21% year-over-year, although lower production rates have slowed inventory accumulation [36]. Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has injected a total of CNY1 trillion (~$144 billion) in liquidity through medium-term lending facilities, the highest injection in January in recent years, which may influence metals demand positively [10]. - The easing of China's monetary policy conditions could potentially stimulate demand for metals, adding further upward pressure on prices [10]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring China's economic indicators and inventory trends as they provide critical insights into future demand for metals and overall market conditions [13][36]. - The potential for a supercycle in mining equities is contingent on both supply-side dynamics and the recovery of demand from China, making it a sector to watch closely in the coming years [2][10].

Aluminium Industry Conference Call Summary Industry Overview - The aluminium industry is facing significant supply constraints, leading to potential deficits not seen in over 20 years, with a bullish outlook for prices in the medium to long term [4][5][20]. Key Points Price Forecasts and Investor Positioning - Aluminium prices have increased by 30% since June 2025, with a forecast of prices needing to sustain above US$3,500 per ton to incentivize the additional supply of over 10 million tons required by 2030 [4][9]. - Price scenarios include a bullish forecast of US$4,000 per ton and a bearish scenario of US$2,800 per ton [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's aluminium supply is no longer growing, with production growth expected to plateau by 2027 due to policy constraints and environmental regulations [26][35]. - Indonesia is emerging as a potential supplier, but its capacity growth is expected to be limited to approximately 0.7 million tons per year, which is insufficient to meet global demand [43][46]. - The market is projected to face significant deficits by 2027, necessitating higher prices or technological breakthroughs in scrap recovery to balance supply and demand [13][20]. Demand Drivers - Structural demand drivers for aluminium include power infrastructure, data centers, robotics, batteries, and solar energy [68][69]. - The rise of AI and data centers is expected to significantly increase power consumption, competing with aluminium smelting for energy resources [71][75]. - The production of humanoid and non-humanoid robots is projected to require substantial amounts of aluminium, lithium, and copper, further driving demand [76][83]. Investor Sentiment and Market Positioning - There has been a notable increase in speculative positioning in the LME aluminium market, reflecting investor confidence in a cyclical recovery in demand [9][10]. - Concerns regarding geopolitical uncertainties and potential economic shocks could present buying opportunities for investors [11]. Risks and Challenges - Downside risks include potential shocks from Japan's debt situation, geopolitical tensions, and a slowdown in global industrial activity [11]. - The aluminium market is less responsive to price increases compared to copper, which may lead to more pronounced deficits and stockout risks [8][23]. Secondary Supply and Recycling - Secondary aluminium supply growth is expected but will be insufficient at current price levels, with recovery rates needing to rise significantly to meet market demands [52][53]. - Historical data suggests that without strong price signals, breakthroughs in scrap recovery are unlikely [54]. Conclusion - The aluminium industry is at a critical juncture, with supply constraints and rising demand driven by technological advancements and decarbonization efforts. The outlook remains bullish, but significant risks and challenges must be navigated to achieve a balanced market.