Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto and Glencore are in discussions for a potential $260 billion merger that could create the world's largest mining company [1] Group 1: Merger Discussions - Preliminary discussions are ongoing regarding a possible combination of some or all of their businesses, potentially through an all-share merger [1] - The current expectation is that the merger would involve Glencore being acquired by Rio Tinto via a Court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement [2] - Rio Tinto has until 5 p.m. London time on February 5 to announce a firm intention to make an offer for Glencore or state that it does not intend to make an offer [2] Group 2: Historical Context - Previous merger talks in late 2024 collapsed due to valuation issues and concerns regarding Glencore's coal mines [3] - In August, Rio Tinto's CEO announced a reorganization aimed at cutting costs and unlocking up to $10 billion from its asset base, focusing on iron ore, aluminium, lithium, and copper [3] Group 3: Market Context - A merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore would contribute to the recent M&A activity in the mining sector, following Anglo American and Teck Resources' $66 billion merger [4] - The renewed discussions are influenced by rising demand for copper, with prices reaching an all-time high of $13,000 per ton this week [4]

Global Commodities Outlook for the 2026 Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference Ride the Power Race and Supply Waves January 2026 Daan Struyven Managing Director Co-Head of Global Commodities Research Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC +1 212-357-4172 Daan.Struyven@gs.com Samantha Dart Managing Director Co-Head of Global Commodities Research Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC +1 212-357-9428 Samantha.Dart@gs.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certifi ...

January 5, 2026 07:20 PM GMT metal&ROCK | Europe Metals On The Rise We reiterate our positive outlook for metals markets in 2026, driven by rate cuts and demand for real assets. Geopolitical events bring upside risks to precious metals, while China's export license requirements may support silver. In base metals, we prefer aluminium and copper. Key Takeaways A strong outlook for 2026: As we outlined in 1Q26: Upside Ahead, we see a positive set up for metals for this year with rate cuts and investor demand f ...

The January Aluminium prices have rallied nearly 23% this year amid an overall positive sentiment for the metal pack due to demand-supply risks.Commenting on the current trends, Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President, Research at “South32 Limited, a major mining and metals company headquartered in Perth, Western Australia, has recently announced that its Mozal smelter in Mozambique will be placed under care and maintenance by March 2026 due to its inability to secure a new power agreement. The shutdown is expe ...

December 23, 2025 01:25 PM GMT European Metals and Mining 23 December 2025 Consolidation, Scarcity, and Regionalisation M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Europe Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Ferdinand Huber RESEARCH ASSOCIATE Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702 European Equity Research Alain Gabriel, CFA EQUITY ANALYST Alain.Gabriel@morganstanley.com +44 (0)20 7425 8959 Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA EQUITY ANALYST Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.com +44 (0)20 7425 0427 Adahna Ekoku ...

16 December 2025 | 4:11PM HKT Equity Research CHINA BASIC MATERIALS MONITOR December 2025: signs of bottoming in bulk, while high metal prices not destructive Summary: End-user orderbooks trend was mostly inline with past seasonality as of mid of December, with appliances, solar, selected construction and machinery on the weaker end. On commodities, demand for copper and paper packaging was weaker, while others mostly on track. Responses of end users to the rising copper and aluminum prices can be seen in t ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the metals industry, particularly in Europe, with a positive outlook for various metals in 2026, driven by rate cuts and demand for real assets [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Positive Outlook for Metals**: The overall outlook for metals remains strong, supported by rate cuts, potential USD weakness, and increasing investor demand for real assets. New demand sources, such as energy storage systems (ESS) batteries and data centers, are expected to contribute to copper demand growth by approximately 0.6 percentage points in 2026 [2][3]. - **Top Picks**: Uranium and lithium are highlighted as top picks due to rising contracting activity and tighter market conditions, respectively. Conversely, iron ore and zinc are viewed with more caution [1][3]. - **Supply Challenges**: Significant supply challenges are noted, including disruptions in copper mines and competition for electricity among aluminum smelters and data centers [2][3]. - **China's Demand**: China's metals demand is bolstered by its manufacturing and export model, which is expected to continue. The US energy secretary's discussions on strategic uranium stockpiling also support this outlook [2][3]. Price Forecasts - **Uranium**: Expected to benefit from rising contracting activity and disappointing supply growth, leading to price upside [3][10]. - **Lithium**: Anticipated to enter a tighter market in 2026 due to accelerated ESS demand [3][10]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to catch up with copper prices as supply constraints from China and other regions persist [3][10]. - **Copper**: Projected to rise further due to tight supply and US stockpiling, although China demand remains a concern [3][10]. - **Gold**: Expected to see smaller gains in 2026 as central bank and ETF buying slows, but rate cuts may support prices [3][10]. - **Iron Ore**: Forecasted to tip into surplus as supply growth outpaces steel demand, although high-cost mines in China may set a price floor [3][10]. - **Zinc**: LME tightness is expected to fade as mine supply growth continues [3][10]. Key Risks - **Demand Destruction Risks**: With significant price increases in the BCOM Precious Metals Index (up 66%) and Industrial Metals (up 13%), there are concerns about potential demand destruction and disconnection from cost curves [4]. - **Global Growth Slowdown**: A sustained global growth slowdown could negatively impact prices, alongside energy price weakness and elevated by-product credits that may drag down cost curves [4]. Additional Insights - **Investor Behavior**: New investments in precious metals are noted, including Tether's gold purchases and India's pension regulator's approval for gold and silver ETF allocations [2]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report emphasizes the importance of resource security and strategic stockpiling, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions and local opposition to mining projects [28]. Conclusion - The metals industry outlook for 2026 is characterized by a positive skew, driven by various macroeconomic factors and emerging demand sources. However, potential risks related to demand destruction and global economic conditions warrant close monitoring.

The LME copper price reached a new all-time high of $11,952 on Friday (12 December), and is now trading around $11,700, marking an increase of 33% year-to-date. We upgrade our 2026 copper price forecast to $11,400 from $10,650, as we lower the probability of a refined copper tariff being implemented by H1 2026 as affordability concerns take priority. A later tariff implementation should result in a larger than expected ex-US market deficit. We have kept our 2027 price forecast of $10,750 unchanged as we exp ...

Summary of Mining Equities Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector Performance**: In 2025, mining equities outperformed equity benchmarks, primarily driven by gold and copper, while ferrous metals and energy remained flat or declined [1][15] - **2026 Outlook**: Expectations for copper, aluminium, and lithium to outperform due to supply constraints and energy transition, with a cautious view on traditional end markets in developed economies [2][15] Key Commodities Insights Copper - **Market Dynamics**: The medium-term outlook for copper remains bullish, with expectations of market tightness in 2026 due to limited growth in global mine output and a deficit in refined output [3][4] - **Investment Opportunities**: Freeport is highlighted as a top pick due to its discounted valuation and expected production recovery at the Grasberg mine [4][23] Aluminium - **Demand vs Supply**: The outlook for aluminium is mixed; while demand holds up, supply constraints are expected, particularly from China and developed markets [5][24] - **Investment Recommendation**: A buy recommendation for Norsk Hydro is reiterated, with expectations of stable operations and potential cash returns [8][24] Gold - **Market Sentiment**: Gold remains a consensus macro trade, with equities delivering strong returns in 2025. However, valuations are less compelling than at the start of the year [9][22] - **Top Picks**: Barrick and Newmont are identified as top picks, with potential for further catalysts in 2026 [10][22] Iron Ore - **Price Forecast**: The medium-term outlook for iron ore is bearish, with prices expected to stabilize around $100/t in the short term and decline to $90/t by 2027 due to increased supply from Simandou [11][20] Coal - **Market Conditions**: Met coal prices have risen above $200/t due to demand and supply disruptions, while thermal coal remains stable at $110/t [12][20] Diversified Miners - **Performance Comparison**: Vale outperformed in the bulks sector, while RIO and BHP performed in line with benchmarks. A preference for RIO over Vale and BHP is noted due to better growth prospects [13][25] Earnings and Price Target Changes - **Adjustments**: Earnings estimates and price targets have been adjusted based on commodity price forecasts, with notable upgrades for copper miners like FCX and KGHM [28][29] Conclusion - **Investment Strategy**: The report emphasizes a selective investment approach in mining equities, focusing on commodities with strong fundamentals and potential for price gains, particularly copper, aluminium, and gold [2][15][22]

ab 10 December 2025 Global Research Mining Strategy China Commodity Trade: Flows Robust in Nov China Nov-25 commodities flow largely up m/m China's Nov-25 preliminary trade data was solid on the commodities front. Iron ore imports fell marginally m/m while net steel exports remained elevated. Rare earth exports increased for a second consecutive month as relations appear to stabilise further. Coal imports improved m/m on strong restocking activity. Aluminium exports hit their highest levels since Nov-24, wi ...