Let's get to Jim and stop trading. >> I mentioned that decline in cattle from historic highs and one of the stocks that's really been just crushed by it is Brinker obviously because they've got that great looking hamburger. Uh and Brinker's coming roaring back roaring back uh upgraded today.It's been upgraded upgraded upgrade uh today's city and I think that you can take that one to the bank because Kevin Hawkman's done a fantastic job. Uh the big problem had been raw costs and here we go. It's going to go ...

Accessible version Basic Materials - China Copper & Gold Rebound; Aluminum Margins Improve; Lithium Strong Industry Overview Metals: Aluminum Margins Improve; Gold Rebounds This week, market attention centered on the end of the U.S. government shutdown, which eased risk-off sentiment and supported copper prices. LME copper rose 1.5% WoW to US$10,856/t, while China price gained 1.3% WoW to RMB87,200/t. LME aluminum slipped 0.2% WoW to US$2,830/t, whereas China aluminum price increased 1.7% WoW to RMB21,910/t ...

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced a decline, with the Nasdaq Composite falling over 350 points, Dow down 0.60% to 47,053.04, Nasdaq down 1.65% to 23,441.48, and S&P 500 down 1.05% to 6,780.03 [1] - European shares were mostly lower, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 declining 0.30% and Germany's DAX 40 dipping 0.76% [6] - Asian markets closed lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling 1.74% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng declining 0.79% [7] Company Performance - Uber Technologies reported a 20% year-over-year revenue growth to $13.47 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $13.28 billion, and adjusted EPS of 81 cents, beating the consensus estimate of 69 cents, yet its stock fell over 6% [2] - Evoke Pharma shares surged 133% to $10.71 following an acquisition agreement with QOL Medical [8] - Denny's Corporation shares rose 50% to $6.16 after announcing an all-cash acquisition deal valued at approximately $620 million [8] - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd shares dropped 15% to $18.86 after a revenue miss in the third quarter [8] - JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. shares fell 28% to $3.01 after reporting disappointing third-quarter results and lowering FY25 guidance [8] - Sarepta Therapeutics Inc shares decreased 31% to $16.82 after reporting third-quarter results and announcing that its ESSENCE study did not meet its primary endpoint [8] Commodities - Oil prices fell 0.5% to $60.77, gold decreased by 1.1% to $3,970.20, silver dropped 1.5% to $47.345, and copper fell 2.5% to $4.9450 [5] Economic Indicators - The Logistics Manager's Index remained unchanged at 57.4 in October, matching the previous month's reading [9]

Market Overview - A technology-themed selloff in the U.S. is negatively impacting Australian investors, with the ASX 200 expected to decline by -0.32% at the market open on Thursday [1] - The dip in Wall Street is contributing to a generally damp mood among Australian shares, despite the ASX not being heavily exposed to tech [2] Commodity Performance - Gold, silver, and platinum have seen significant declines, causing investor unease, although the exodus from gold appears to be slowing down [2][3] - In the commodities market, iron ore increased by +0.57% to $104.15 per tonne, while Brent crude rose by +3.5% to $63.45 per barrel [7] Company News - Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) is considering a deal with its largest shareholder, Chinalco, which would allow the company to buy back its London-listed stock, potentially requiring the divestment of projects like Simandou and Oyu Tolgo [4] - Rox Resources (ASX: RXL) has received underground mining permits for its Youanmi Gold Project in Western Australia, marking a significant development for the explorer [5] - Companies such as BHP Group (ASX: BHP), Cochlear (ASX: COH), and Brambles (ASX: BXB) are scheduled for annual general meetings, with Genesis Energy (ASX: GMD) reporting a strong first quarter [6]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced gains, with the Nasdaq Composite increasing by over 100 points, the Dow up 0.06% to 46,299.96, the NASDAQ climbing 0.52% to 22,639.61, and the S&P 500 rising 0.33% to 6,666.08 [1] - Communication services shares rose by 1.6%, while health care stocks saw a slight increase of 0.1% [1] Company Performance - Abbott Laboratories' stock fell approximately 2.6% after reporting third-quarter sales of $11.37 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of $11.40 billion [2] - The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.30, aligning with Wall Street estimates and within the management guidance of $1.28-$1.32 [2] - Abbott narrowed its fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings guidance from a range of $5.10 to $5.20 per share to $5.12 to $5.18 per share, compared to the consensus of $5.15 per share [3] Notable Stock Movements - Veritone, Inc. shares surged 68% to $9.19 following new contract wins and an updated Q3 financial outlook [9] - Genprex, Inc. saw a significant increase of 269% to $0.9208 due to upcoming presentations at a major conference [9] - Omeros Corporation's shares rose 131% to $9.49 after Novo Nordisk acquired its global rights to Zaltenibart [9] - Yueda Digital Holding's shares plummeted 86% to $0.2001 after announcing a $28 million registered direct offering [9] - Largo Inc. shares dropped 43% to $1.43 following the pricing of a $23.4 million registered direct offering and private placement [9] - Aqua Metals, Inc. fell 39% to $18.11 after raising $13 million from an institutional investor [9] Commodity Market - Oil prices increased by 0.3% to $58.89, while gold rose by 1.2% to $4,213.60 [6] - Silver traded up 1.6% to $51.405, and copper saw a slight increase of 0.1% to $5.0250 [6] Economic Indicators - The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index rose by 19.4 points to a reading of 10.7 in October, exceeding market expectations of -1.0 [11]

Market Indicators - Value stocks 表明市场预期货币政策将放松 [1] - Commodity prices 表明市场预期货币政策将放松 [1] - Yield curve 表明市场预期货币政策将放松 [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Mining and Commodities - **Region**: China Core Insights 1. **China's Commodity Demand**: - Commodity demand indicators in China showed broad weakness in July, with industrial production growth missing expectations at +5.7% y/y compared to +6.8% prior, and retail sales significantly weaker at +3.7% y/y versus consensus of +4.6% [1][3] - The overall economic weakness raises the risk of stimulus measures, which could positively impact sentiment and commodity prices if implemented meaningfully [1][6] 2. **Iron Ore Market**: - The property market in China remains weak, with new starts and sales down -19% and -5% y/y respectively. The real estate climate index is deteriorating [2] - A recent policy announcement of Rmb300 billion for inventory purchases is a positive step, but more support is needed to stabilize iron ore prices, which are expected to remain in the US$90-100/t range [2] - Crude steel output decreased by -4% y/y in June, indicating domestic demand weakness, consistent with reduced construction activity [2] 3. **Base Metals**: - Industrial production growth has lost momentum, and retail sales are below expectations, suggesting that stimulus efforts are losing effectiveness [3] - Despite the bearish indicators, there is a constructive outlook if further stimulus is introduced [3] 4. **Coal Sector**: - Coal production in China fell by -4% y/y, while coke production increased by +1% y/y. The introduction of the 276-Working Day Rule may ease oversupply in the coal market [4] - Spot met coal prices have risen by +12% over the past month to approximately US$192/t [4] 5. **Battery Raw Materials and EV Market**: - Electric vehicle (EV) output and sales remain strong, with a +19% y/y increase in output. Exports of EVs have reached new highs [5] - Continued robust domestic EV sales and open trade relationships are expected to support demand for battery raw materials [5] Additional Insights 1. **Investment Outlook**: - UBS remains cautious about large-scale stimulus but acknowledges potential upside risks for commodity prices if meaningful stimulus occurs [6] - Companies most leveraged to potential upside scenarios include MIN and FMG, while RIO and BHP are seen as neutrals that would also benefit [6] 2. **Economic Indicators**: - Key economic indicators from China show a mixed picture, with manufacturing PMI at 49.2, indicating contraction, and retail sales growth slowing significantly [8] - The overall economic environment suggests a need for careful monitoring of trade developments and potential policy responses [6][8] 3. **Risks in the Mining Sector**: - The mining sector faces inherent risks, including volatility in commodity prices and currencies, as well as political, financial, and operational risks that could impact performance [51] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the mining industry and its outlook in China.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Economics** sector, specifically analyzing inflation trends in July 2025 and their implications for the economy and investment landscape [1] Core Insights - **PPI Improvement**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a modest month-over-month improvement to **-0.2%** in July from **-0.4%** in June, driven by a rebound in upstream prices despite continued weakness in downstream prices [2][11] - **CPI Trends**: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable, with core inflation at approximately **1%** month-over-month seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) since the policy pivot in September 2024, supported by strong demand for manufactured goods [4][11] - **Commodity Prices**: There is an expectation for continued outperformance of commodity prices in the near term, although downstream pricing improvements may be limited due to subdued final demand [5][11] Detailed Data Analysis - **CPI and PPI Breakdown**: - July CPI YoY was **0.0%**, with food prices declining by **-1.6%** and non-food prices increasing by **0.3%** [7] - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose to **0.8%** YoY, indicating resilience in manufactured goods [7] - PPI YoY showed a decline of **-3.6%**, with specific sectors like mining and quarrying experiencing a significant drop of **-14.0%** [7] Future Outlook - **Inflation Expectations**: The low base effect in August and September is expected to support both core CPI and PPI YoY figures, although a high base will eventually constrain growth [5][11] - **Gradual Reflation**: The overall reflation process is anticipated to be gradual, influenced by anti-involution measures, rebalancing efforts, and export challenges [11] Additional Considerations - **Consumption Goods Support**: The consumption goods trade-in program is highlighted as a key support for goods CPI, while services inflation, particularly in tourism, is losing momentum [4][11] - **High-Frequency Data**: High-frequency data indicates a continued rise in commodity prices towards the end of July, suggesting a firm footing for August's MoM figures [3] This summary encapsulates the essential insights and data from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic conditions and future expectations in the China Economics sector.

Core Insights - EOG Resources reported Q2 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $2.32, exceeding estimates of $2.23, while facing a challenging pricing environment for oil and gas [1][2] - The company proactively reduced capital expenditures to protect free cash flow and shareholder returns, reflecting strong operational discipline [1][4] Financial Performance - Non-GAAP EPS decreased by 26.6% year-over-year from $3.16 in Q2 2024 to $2.32 in Q2 2025 [2] - GAAP revenue for Q2 2025 was $5.48 billion, slightly above the estimate of $5.45 billion [2] - Free cash flow fell by 29.0% year-over-year to $973 million from $1.37 billion in Q2 2024 [2][6] - Average realized price per barrel of oil equivalent dropped to $39.80 from $45.88 in Q1 2025, with U.S. crude oil averaging $64.84 per barrel, down from $72.90 [5][6] Operational Highlights - Production volumes reached 1,134.1 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, with oil volumes at 504.2 thousand barrels per day and natural gas liquids at 258.4 thousand barrels daily [6] - The composite margin per Boe decreased to $14.94 from $21.70 in 2024, indicating pressure on profit margins due to weaker pricing [6] - EOG's drilling efficiency improved by 15% year-over-year at the Dorado project, maintaining low gas breakeven costs of approximately $1.40 per Mcf [8] Strategic Focus - EOG Resources operates primarily in the U.S., focusing on developing large proved reserves and leveraging advanced drilling technologies [3][4] - The company reduced its 2025 capital budget by $200 million and narrowed drilling activity in key areas to maintain steady oil production [7] - EOG completed a $275 million acquisition in the Eagle Ford, adding 30,000 net acres [7] Future Outlook - Management expects flat oil production for the remainder of the year, with approximately 2% oil production growth and 5% total production growth anticipated [10] - Free cash flow guidance is set at $4 billion, assuming oil prices at $65 per barrel and natural gas at $3.75 per Mcf [10] - The company maintained a net cash position of $980 million as of June 30, 2025, and paid $528 million in dividends [9]

Core Insights - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) anticipates a decline in earnings for Q2 2025 due to lower oil and natural gas prices, which is a significant concern given the company's reliance on exploration and production activities [1][3] Price Trends - The average spot prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude were $63.54, $62.17, and $68.17 per barrel for April, May, and June respectively, indicating a decline from Q1 prices which averaged $75.74, $71.53, and $68.24 per barrel [2] - Natural gas prices have also shown a similar downward trend, impacting the overall pricing environment for the energy sector [2] Earnings Impact - XOM forecasts that lower oil prices will reduce its upstream earnings by $800 million to $1.2 billion, while changes in gas prices could decrease upstream profit by $300 million to $700 million, leading to an expected earnings per share (EPS) of $1.47 for Q2, a decline of nearly 31% year over year [3][7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) is $2.13 per share for Q2, reflecting a 33% year-over-year decline, while ConocoPhillips (COP) is estimated at $1.44 per share, indicating a 27.3% decline [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - XOM shares have increased by 3.7% over the past year, contrasting with a slight decline of 0.6% in the broader industry [6] - XOM's current trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio stands at 6.89X, which is above the industry average of 4.16X [8] Earnings Estimates Revision - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for XOM's earnings for 2025 has been revised upward in the past week, with current estimates for Q2 at $1.47, next quarter at $1.48, and the current year at $6.33 [10][11]