It is time for a little money power politics. The Labor Department published new numbers on US wholesale prices today and spoiler they are much higher than expected. The PPI surged nearly 1% last month.That is the biggest monthly jump in over 3 years. Now if you are not familiar with this measure, what it is, what it means, why do we care. Well, PPI stands for producer price index.That means the wholesale price of goods. we care because it provides unique insight into the real inflation picture that's comin ...

Inflation and Economic Growth - The data suggests that inflation is not a major concern, with the bigger problem being a lack of real growth [2] - Real GDP growth in the first half of the year is slightly less than 1% annualized, and job creation is up 60 basis points annualized [3] - Current inflation is running at 2.5% to 3% [3] Federal Reserve (Fed) Policy - A Fed rate cut is anticipated, with the expectation that the Fed will choose to ease next month [3] - The market has been narrow in this bull market because the Fed has been tightening [7] - If the Fed cuts the funds rate, long-term bond yields and mortgage rates could decrease, the dollar could weaken, and the money supply could increase, all of which are positive for stocks and the economy [9] - A Fed rate cut could be a game-changer, potentially initiating a new bull market [10] Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Small caps and midcaps offer a very attractive relative PE discount, trading at more than 30% discounts to their average 20-year relative PE with the S&P 500 [12][13] - Historically, 12 months after the Fed starts cutting interest rates, large caps gain less than 4%, while small caps are up about 3%, indicating significant room for small caps to move [13] - If the Fed eases, leadership may broaden out to small caps, international value plays [11]

Group 1: Airline Sector Overview - The airline sector is experiencing a positive shift as the consumer price index (CPI) for July indicated a 4% increase in fares, contrasting with a 0.1% decrease in June [1] - Shares of major airlines, including American Airlines Group Inc (AAL), Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL), and United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL), are rallying in response to the CPI data [1] Group 2: American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) - AAL shares are up 10.4%, trading at $12.79, and are set to end a three-day losing streak [2] - The stock has increased by 33% over the past 12 months and has rebounded from support at the 80-day moving average [2] Group 3: United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) - UAL shares have risen 9.7% to $98.01, marking the highest level since late February [3] - The stock is on track for its sixth gain in the last seven sessions and has broken above the $95 resistance level [3] - Year-over-year, UAL shares have a significant increase of 142.2% [3] Group 4: Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) - DAL shares are up 8.3%, trading at $57.99, recovering from earlier lows [4] - The stock is reducing a year-to-date deficit of 4.1% and has bounced off the supportive 60-day trendline [4] - Year-over-year, DAL shares have increased by 48.6% [4] Group 5: Options Activity - There is significant bullish activity in options for AAL, UAL, and DAL, with call volume at triple the intraday average for AAL and UAL, and four times the typical volume for DAL [5] - The most active options include the September 14 call for AAL, the September 100 call for UAL, and the September 60 call for DAL, with new positions opening in all three [5]

Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June showed a month-over-month change of 0.0%, which was lower than the expected +0.2% and down from the revised +0.3% of the previous month [2][3] - Year-over-year, the headline PPI increased by +2.3%, which is 30 basis points below expectations and the lowest since +2.1% reported in September of the previous year [4] - Core PPI year-over-year reached +2.6%, slightly below estimates and down 40 basis points from the May figure of +3.0% [4] Financial Sector Performance - Bank of America reported earnings of 89 cents per share, beating expectations by 3 cents, although revenues missed estimates by 0.5% [7] - Goldman Sachs delivered a strong Q2 earnings report with earnings of $10.91 per share, surpassing expectations by +15.7% and revenues of $14.58 billion, exceeding estimates by +8% [8] - Morgan Stanley reported earnings of $2.13 per share and revenues of $16.79 billion, outperforming consensus estimates by +10.36% and +5.5% respectively [9] Company-Specific Highlights - Johnson & Johnson's Q2 earnings beat expectations with earnings of $2.77 per share, exceeding projections of $2.66, and revenues of $23.7 billion, which were higher than the expected $22.80 billion [10]

Inflation Trends - Headline CPI increased by 03% as expected, following a 01% increase [1] - Headline CPI increase of 03% is the second highest this year, with January being the highest at 05% [1] - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 02%, lower than the expected 03% [2] - Core CPI increase of 02% matches the increase in April, with January being the highest at 04% [2]

Market Performance - The small-cap Russell 2000 has outperformed major indexes recently, leading for the 4th session in the last 5, with a gain of +0.48% [1] - The Dow increased by +192 points (+0.43%), the S&P 500 rose by +17 points (+0.27%), and the Nasdaq was up by +19 points (+0.09%) [1] - Over the past month, the Russell 2000 has gained +5%, while other major indexes have hovered around +4% [2] Company Earnings - Levi Strauss & Co. reported fiscal Q2 earnings of 22 cents per share, exceeding the estimated 14 cents, with revenues of $1.4 billion surpassing the projected $1.37 billion [4] - The gross margins for Levi Strauss hit a record +62.6% for the quarter, with Americas' comps up +5%, net revenues in Europe up +14%, and Asia flat [4] - Direct-to-Consumer sales increased by +11% in the quarter, contributing to a +7% jump in stock price following the earnings report [4] Economic Outlook - No significant economic reports or earnings reports are expected on the following Friday, with attention turning to the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and Q2 earnings from major banks [5] - Major banks are anticipated to perform well, with assets under management at record highs and strong investment banking performance [6] - The CPI Inflation Rate was reported at a 12-month low of +2.3%, with core inflation at +2.8%, close to the Fed's optimal target of +2.0% [6]

Core Insights - In June 2025, Qingdao's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% year-on-year, driven by a 1.1% rise in food prices and a 0.2% increase in non-food prices [1][3] Group 1: Price Changes - Food and tobacco prices rose by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.30 percentage points to the CPI increase [3] - Among the eight categories, prices for other goods and services, education, culture and entertainment, clothing, and living goods and services increased by 10.7%, 1.6%, 0.8%, and 0.1% respectively [3] - Conversely, healthcare, housing, and transportation and communication prices decreased by 0.2%, 0.3%, and 3.1% respectively [3] Group 2: Food Price Details - Grain prices increased by 0.4% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month, with flour prices up by 2.6% year-on-year [5] - Fresh vegetable prices rose by 3.1% year-on-year, with significant increases in lotus root and spinach prices, which rose by 33.7% and 28.8% respectively [5] - Pork prices decreased by 12.7% year-on-year, while water product prices increased by 8.5% year-on-year [5] Group 3: Industrial and Service Prices - Industrial consumer prices fell by 0.6% year-on-year, with clothing prices up by 0.8% year-on-year but down by 0.2% month-on-month [8] - Transportation tool prices decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, with fuel car prices down by 4.4% year-on-year [8] - Service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with travel-related service prices showing mixed trends [10]

as the PPI shows inflation under control for now. Let's get straight to CNBC senior economics reporter Steve Leeman with the latest on the economic front, Steve, and some new comments from the president on Fed Chair Powell. In the past hour, yeah, Kelly, Walt, welcoming the lower inflation reports the past two days.Forecasters are still puzzling over the mystery of where and when the tariffs are going to increase and will they show up, if they do at all. Producer prices well under control up just 01 in the ...

Core Viewpoint - Wells Fargo economists anticipate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. for April may accelerate, influenced by tariffs leading to higher inflation expectations [1] Economic Indicators - After an unexpected decline of 0.1% in March, the April CPI is projected to increase by 0.2% [1] - This increase would bring the annual CPI rate down to a four-year low of 2.3% [1] - The core CPI annual rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.8% [1] Tariff Impact - Economists indicate that the reality of tariffs will lead to higher import costs, which will eventually affect consumer prices [1]