Core Viewpoint - Caesars Entertainment has faced significant stock decline and investor frustration, attributed to Las Vegas tourism slump and broader economic factors, leading to a more than 40% drop in stock value year-to-date [2][3][10] Financial Performance - The company's third-quarter results were disappointing, contributing to the stock's decline, which has continued post-earnings announcement despite optimistic remarks about future convention bookings [2][3] - Caesars' market capitalization is currently around $4 billion, significantly below the S&P 500's minimum requirement of $20.5 billion for inclusion [4][10] Historical Context - The merger that created "new Caesars" occurred over five years ago, with expectations of improved management and shareholder value, but the stock has lost over two-thirds of its value since then [8][9] - The company has consistently underperformed compared to its competitors and the broader gaming sector over the past five years [6][9] Operational Challenges - Caesars is facing issues related to its master lease agreement with Vici Properties, which includes inflation-linked rent escalators that may not align with the company's profit growth [12][13] - There are indications that Vici may need to lower rents for some Caesars' regional casinos, but this would likely come at a cost to Caesars, further complicating its financial situation [14]

Joining me is KPMG's chief economist Diane Swank and CNBC's Steve Leeman. Steve, let me begin with you. Is this a big departure from what we had seen after the last Fed meeting.>> Um, yeah, and by the way, Contessa, unfortunately, you blinked. And, uh, it's an even bigger departure because those probabilities are now down to 41%. Um, and I get that because it's only just been in a little bit that we've had that move.As you saw, uh, the 10-year yield rise higher. uh to around 414 and now the probabilities ha ...

Core Viewpoint - A growing number of Federal Reserve officials express a preference for holding interest rates steady due to concerns about high inflation, indicating that further rate cuts may not be imminent [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Opinions - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid emphasized that he is more concerned about inflation being "too high" than the current state of the job market, advocating for no rate cuts [1][2]. - Schmid stated that a 25-basis-point reduction in the policy rate may not effectively address labor market stresses, which he attributes to structural changes rather than monetary policy [2]. - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also indicated a preference for holding rates steady, supporting Fed Chair Jerome Powell's view that another cut in December is not guaranteed [2]. Group 2: Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September recorded an inflation rate of 3%, slightly below expectations but an increase from 2.9% in August [3]. - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also rose to 3% in September, down from 3.1% in the previous month [3]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, was estimated by Powell to be 2.8% based on CPI data, which was not released due to the government shutdown [4]. Group 3: Rate Decisions and Concerns - The Fed voted to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, with Schmid dissenting in favor of holding rates steady [4]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, while supporting the quarter-point rate cut, expressed concerns about inflation remaining a significant issue that needs to be addressed to reach the 2% target [5][6].

Social Security Adjustment - Social Security's cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 will be 2.8% [2] - The 2.8% increase is slightly above the previous year's 2.5% [2] - The adjustment is based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for urban wage earners [3] Impact on Beneficiaries - The 2.8% increase will result in an average increase of $56 per month for the average beneficiary [5] Concerns and Criticisms - Critics argue that the CPI for urban wage earners doesn't accurately reflect the spending habits of retirees, particularly regarding housing, healthcare, and groceries [3][4] - Experts suggest that the current index is outdated and doesn't reflect seniors' actual spending [6] - The Senior Citizens League is actively advocating for a more relevant index [6] Potential Future Changes - There is ongoing discussion about the need to find a more accurate index that reflects the spending patterns of seniors [6]

Inflation Overview - The year-over-year inflation rate increased to 3.0% in September, returning to January levels, with economists initially expecting a rate of 3.1% [1][8] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 3% year-over-year in September, slightly below the expected 3.1% [1] Monthly Changes - Core CPI increased by 0.2% from August to September, falling short of the 0.3% forecast [2] - Overall CPI rose by 0.3% month-over-month, below the anticipated 0.4% [2] Impact of Government Shutdown - The Bureau of Labor Statistics delayed the release of the September consumer price index report due to the government shutdown, which is the second-longest in US history [3] - The shutdown has affected the publication of other key economic data, including the jobs report, which remains unscheduled [6][8] Inflation Drivers - The increase in inflation was primarily driven by goods inflation, particularly a 4.1% rise in gas prices month-over-month, significantly higher than the previous 1.9% increase [4] - The food index rose by 3.1% year-over-year, with a 0.2% increase month-over-month, which is less than the previous 0.5% increase [5] Federal Reserve Considerations - The Federal Reserve is focusing on supporting the labor market, especially as inflation risks are perceived to be transitory and tariff-driven [7] - The Fed's upcoming meeting on October 28 and 29 will discuss rates, relying on private data releases and previous reports due to the lack of official data [6][8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the implications of a cooler than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) on investment strategies and market behavior, indicating a potential bullish trend in the stock market [4][9]. Economic Indicators - Headline CPI came in at 0.3%, compared to a consensus of 0.4% - Core CPI was reported at 0.2%, against a consensus of 0.3% [9] Market Trends - Positive money flows were observed in major stocks such as Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and NVIDIA, while Tesla showed negative flows [6] - The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) also experienced positive money flows [6] Investment Strategies - The model suggests deploying cash due to favorable CPI data, with a 3% reduction in cash within the protection band [4] - Investors are advised to hold long-term positions while considering tactical trades and hedges based on individual risk preferences [9] Political Context - President Trump is optimistic about trade negotiations with China, particularly regarding soybeans and rare earth minerals, with a meeting scheduled with President Xi [9] - The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to influence market sentiment, with a high probability of rate cuts in October (99%) and December (90%) [9] Market Sentiment - The article highlights a bullish sentiment in the market, with expectations of a year-end chase by money managers if the market trends upward [9] - The momo crowd is anticipated to buy ahead of the Fed rate decision, indicating a pattern that may repeat [9] Strategic Considerations - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between cash and investments, suggesting that a protection band of 0% indicates full investment, while 100% suggests a need for aggressive protection [10][11] - Investors are encouraged to think both strategically and tactically, as substantial risks remain, including high inflation and market valuations [9]

Core Insights - Crypto traders are known for making strategic moves ahead of macroeconomic announcements, with recent activity showing a bullish trader taking a long position before the September CPI data release [1][2] - The CPI is a key inflation indicator that influences both traditional and crypto markets, with rising CPI leading traders to favor assets like Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation [2][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - A bullish crypto trader took a long position on Ethereum and Bitcoin ahead of the CPI data release scheduled for October 24 [2] - The CPI rose by 0.3% in September and 3% year-over-year, indicating inflationary pressures [3] - Excluding food and energy, the CPI increased by 0.2% in the last month, maintaining a 3% year-over-year increase [3] Group 2: Trader Activity - An on-chain analytics platform reported that a crypto whale with a 100% win rate has significantly increased long positions, holding 33,270 ETH valued at $132 million and a leveraged long position on 680 BTC worth $75.8 million [5]

Core Inflation Data - Inflation held steady at 3% in September, slightly below analysts' expectations of 3.1% [2][8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3% year over year in September, up from 2.9% in August, marking the highest reading since May [2][3] - Month-over-month prices increased by 0.3%, lower than August's 0.4% rise and below economists' expectations [3][4] Energy Prices Impact - Gasoline prices rose by 4.1% in September, contributing to the monthly price increase, but were down 0.5% year over year [3] - The broader energy commodities index decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous year [3] Core Inflation Insights - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 3% year over year in September, down from 3.1% in August [4] - On a monthly basis, core prices increased by 0.2%, easing from a 0.3% gain in August [4] Economic Context - The report was the first major piece of federal economic data released since the ongoing government shutdown, which is now the second-longest in US history [5][6] - RSM chief economist noted the report as a "market positive story," but warned about potential data quality deterioration due to the shutdown [6][7] Future Outlook - The current inflation rate of 3% is expected to potentially accelerate, remaining above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [8] - Markets anticipate a quarter-point cut from the Fed at the upcoming policy meeting, despite persistent inflation [8]

Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.3% in September, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 3%, which was lower than economists' expectations of 0.4% and 3.1% respectively [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, showed a 0.2% monthly gain and maintained an annual rate of 3%, also below the anticipated 0.3% [2] - Gasoline prices surged by 4.1%, being the largest contributor to the inflation report, while overall commodity prices rose by 0.5% [2] Housing and Services - Shelter costs, which account for about one-third of the CPI weighting, increased by only 0.2% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year [3] - Services, excluding shelter costs, also saw a 0.2% increase [3] - New vehicle prices rose by 0.8%, while used car and truck prices decreased by 0.4% [3]

Economic Indicators - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has recalled some workers to prepare the September inflation data despite the ongoing government shutdown, which has raised doubts about the timing of its release originally scheduled for October 15 [3][4] - The inflation report may now be released in time for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on October 28-29, as the White House Office of Management and Budget has requested the BLS to expedite the process [4] Consumer Trends - Piper Sandler Companies released its 50th semi-annual "Taking Stock With Teens" survey, indicating that Nike remains the top clothing and footwear brand among teenagers, followed by Hollister and Adidas [9] - In the beauty category, e.l.f. Cosmetics continues to lead, while Sephora is the preferred beauty shopping destination for teens [10] - Teenage spending is significant, influencing both direct economic contributions and household purchasing decisions, with billions spent annually [11] Corporate Developments - Instagram's head, Adam Mosseri, has indicated that the company is exploring the development of a standalone TV app to enhance its video content offerings and compete with platforms like YouTube [12][13] - Mosseri believes that existing vertical video content on Instagram could be adapted for a TV format, suggesting a strategic pivot towards video consumption [14]