Welcome to Yahoo Finance's special coverage of the January consumer price index report. We are getting the numbers and month- over-month inflation 0.2% a little bit more subdued than the 0.3% month overmonth gain that economists had expected. Core CPI month overmonth 0.3% that is a little bit of an acceleration.That's in line with analyst estimates. And then just as we saw the month overmonth coming in a little lower, we see it for year-over-year 2.4%. 4% the headline consumer inflation number year-over-yea ...

January inflation as we've been talking about on the consumer level coming in broadly in line with estimates a little bit better the on the headline number uh rising 2.4% on the year. If you strip out volatile food and energy prices the C core number came in at 2 and a.5%. We want to look under the hood as well and look at the categories with the largest increases and decreases.So year-over-year, some of the biggest price increases came in personal care, food away from home, less going to restaurants, and n ...

Core Insights - Inflation remained elevated in January, with consumer price growth exceeding the Federal Reserve's target rate, raising affordability concerns among policymakers [1] CPI Data Summary - The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month in January and 2.4% year-over-year, down from 2.7% in December [2] - Core prices, excluding volatile items like gasoline and food, increased by 0.3% from the previous month and slowed to 2.5% year-over-year from 2.6% last month, aligning with economists' expectations [3] Data Collection Impact - Inflation data from December 2025 to April 2026 will be influenced by data collection interruptions due to a 43-day government shutdown [4] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) utilized a carry-forward methodology to compensate for missing data, which may introduce a downward bias in inflation data until fresh data is available in spring [5] Cost of Living Breakdown - High inflation has significantly impacted U.S. households, particularly lower-income Americans who spend a larger portion of their income on necessities [6] - Food prices increased by 0.2% in January and are 2.9% higher year-over-year, with the food at home index up 2.1% and food away from home index up 4% [7] - Energy prices decreased by 1.5% month-over-month and are down 0.1% year-over-year, with gasoline prices falling 3.2% for the month and 7.5% year-over-year [9] - Housing prices rose 0.2% in January and are up 3% annually, with the shelter index being the largest contributor to the overall CPI increase [10] Sector-Specific Price Changes - Transportation services costs increased by 1.4% in January and are 1.3% higher than a year ago, with airline fares jumping 6.5% for the month [11] - Medical care costs rose by 0.3% in January and have increased by 3.9% over the past year [11]

Core Insights - India is set to release new inflation figures based on a revised consumer price index (CPI), which may indicate heightened price pressures in the economy, potentially leading the central bank to maintain current interest rates [1][4] CPI Overhaul - The new CPI, scheduled for release on Thursday, will reflect updated spending patterns and will include data for 2025, facilitating easier comparisons [2] - The weighting of volatile items like food has been reduced to approximately 36.8% from nearly 50%, while new categories such as rural housing rentals and online shopping have been introduced [3] - The base year for the CPI has been updated from 2012 to 2024, which may result in an inflation reading of about 2.77% for January, compared to 1.33% in December based on the previous series [3] Central Bank Implications - Although inflation remains below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) target of 4%, the new figures could lead to a pause in rate cuts and an increase in bond yields [4] - The RBI's inflation forecasting model has faced scrutiny due to past overestimations, prompting discussions on whether to target an inflation measure that excludes food to reduce volatility [5] Market Reactions - The new CPI series is expected to enhance the effectiveness of the RBI's monetary policy and improve the speed of transmission [6] - Financial market participants are closely monitoring the CPI changes, as a higher inflation trajectory could keep borrowing costs elevated, affecting bond yields and equity valuations [6] Economic Context - The revised CPI aims to better reflect India's economic reality, considering the shift in consumer spending towards services and housing as incomes rise [7] - Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel, will see its weight increase to nearly 58% from 47.3%, making it more responsive to monetary policy [8] Future Data Releases - The government plans to publish GDP data on February 27 based on the new consumer spending patterns, which may show a significant upward revision in the economy's size, potentially positioning India to surpass Japan as the world's fourth-largest economy [9] Index Composition Changes - The CPI overhaul will replace outdated items with modern expenditures, including airfares and e-commerce sales, while also incorporating electricity prices and rural housing costs [10] - Free food items from government welfare programs will be excluded from the new CPI, which will also provide more detailed data potentially down to the item level [11] Market Expectations - The bond market is currently facing record debt supply, with benchmark 10-year bond yields reaching their highest level in over a year following the central bank's decision to hold rates [11] - Market expectations indicate a slight upward bias in the new CPI of around 30-50 basis points, with the RBI anticipated to maintain a long hold stance focused on proactive liquidity management [12]

Group 1 - Investors are returning to the market at more attractive prices after taking profits from last week's historic high, recognizing that key bullish fundamentals such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and U.S. debt issues remain intact [1] - Concerns regarding Federal Reserve policy are creating headwinds for further market gains, particularly after the nomination of Kevin Warsh, which has led to a stall in buying and profit-taking among traders [2] - A hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report has raised concerns that the Fed may not cut interest rates as aggressively, undermining the bullish narrative that supported gold prices throughout 2025 [3] Group 2 - Without a solid support base, any attempts at price rallies in the gold market are likely to fail, indicating that investors may not have learned from the recent sell-off [4] - The trend remains upward according to the swing chart, as long as the December bottom at $4274.02 is not violated, with the break under the 50-day moving average at $4499.83 showing that investors respect this indicator as both support and a trend indicator [5]

Group 1 - Bitcoin climbed back above $93,000 following the latest US inflation data, indicating a return of risk appetite after weeks of ETF-driven selling [1][3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed inflation at 2.7% year over year, suggesting that while prices are still rising, the pace is much slower compared to the inflation shock of 2022 and 2023 [2][4] - The current inflation environment supports risk assets, as it alleviates fears of renewed monetary tightening, allowing investors to feel more comfortable holding assets like Bitcoin [3][5] Group 2 - Bitcoin's price surge is attributed not only to the CPI data but also to a stabilization phase after a significant ETF-driven reset, where over $6 billion exited US spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier in January [4][5] - Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have slowed, with Bitcoin trading close to the ETF average cost basis of $86,000, which often acts as a support level [5][6] - Bitcoin is building support between $88,000 and $92,000, with the CPI data removing a major macro risk, indicating that the reset phase is well advanced [6]

Economic Indicators - The new Inflation Rate is reported at +2.7% month over month, down 30 basis points from the recent high of +3.0% in September, indicating a significant turnaround in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year over year [1] - Oil and gasoline prices contributed to moderating inflation, with gasoline prices dropping -3.4% and oil inflation slowing to +7.4% from +11.3%, while food prices increased to +3.1% and shelter costs rose to +3.2% [2] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remained stable at +2.6% month over month, which is lower than the +2.8% expected by analysts [2] Banking Sector Performance - JPMorgan Chase reported earnings of $5.23 per share, exceeding the Zacks consensus of $4.87, resulting in a +7.3% earnings surprise, with revenues of $45.8 billion also surpassing expectations [4] - The bank's average loans increased by +3% quarter over quarter, and it now holds Assets Under Management (AUM) of $4.8 trillion, reflecting an +18% year over year growth [5] Airline Industry Insights - Delta Air Lines reported earnings of $1.55 per share, slightly above the Zacks consensus, with quarterly revenues of $16 billion exceeding the anticipated $15.63 billion [6] - Despite the positive earnings report, signs of slowing demand have led to a -4.5% decline in pre-market trading for Delta [6] Market Expectations - Upcoming economic indicators include New Home Sales for October, expected to decrease to 710K seasonally adjusted annualized units, and a new Budget Deficit for December anticipated to drop to -$150 billion from -$87 billion reported previously [7]

Core Insights - The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a core inflation rate of 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7%, but consistent with the previous months from September to November, remaining close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1] - The inflation report does not provide sufficient justification for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates in the upcoming meeting, as inflation remains above target [2] - Shelter costs, which rose by 0.4% in December, were a significant contributor to the inflation increase, although the data collection process may have skewed the results due to assumptions made during the government shutdown [2][3] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rate range of 3.5%-3.75% for the time being, as rates are deemed well-positioned to support job growth while managing inflation [5] - New York Fed president John Williams anticipates economic growth in 2026, with inflation expected to peak in the first half of the year and then decline to just under 2.5% by year-end [4] - The expectation is for 50 basis points of policy easing in 2026, but the Fed is likely to wait until at least June to resume rate cuts [4]

Core Insights - U.S. inflation data met expectations, leading to a brief surge in bitcoin prices above $92,000 [1][2] - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year over year in December, consistent with November's figures and economists' predictions [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.6%, slightly below the forecast of 2.7% [1] Inflation Metrics - Month-over-month headline inflation was reported at 0.3%, aligning with consensus expectations [2] - Core inflation increased by 0.2% month-over-month [2] Market Reactions - Bitcoin experienced a price jump to $92,500 before settling at $91,830, reflecting a 1.1% increase over the past 24 hours [2] - U.S. stock index futures rose approximately 0.3% following the inflation report [2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased to 4.175% from over 4.19% prior to the data release [2] Federal Reserve Expectations - Market participants indicated a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates at its January meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool [3]

Core Insights - Inflation eased in December, with core consumer prices rising at the slowest annual rate since March 2021, at 2.6% year-over-year [1][2] - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, aligning with economists' expectations [2] Inflation Trends - Core CPI's 2.6% increase matches November's rate, indicating persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, although it has been declining over the past year [2][3] - The inflationary pressures on household food budgets remain significant, with food prices rising 0.7% in December, outpacing overall price increases [6] Sector-Specific Changes - The price of used cars and trucks decreased by 1.7% in December, contributing to lower core consumer prices [8] - Airline fares fell by 0.5%, and the overall transportation services category also saw a 0.5% price drop [8] - Energy costs contributed to the rise in headline prices, with gas prices falling by 5.3% in December, leading to a 2% decrease in the energy index from the prior month [8] Market Reactions - Following the December CPI report, market data indicated a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged during its upcoming meeting [4]