Economics Americas ab Global Research 29 December 2025 US Economic Perspectives US Inflation Monthly: Unbiasing the CPI Published core CPI dropped to 2.63%; ex-shutdown we estimate 3.00% Strong monthly increases as November bias reverses: December core CPI 0.44% Core PCE inflation: 2.8% in 2025E, 3.0% in 2026E, 2.4% in 2027E, 2.0% in 2028E Alan Detmeister Economist alan.detmeister@ubs.com +1-212-713 1222 Jonathan Pingle Economist jonathan.pingle@ubs.com +1-212-713 2225 Abigail Watt Economist abigail.watt@ub ...

Thursday saw the release of a much lighter-than-expected consumer price report for November, breaking from the recent trend of sticky inflation.Stocks jumped. Yields fell. Odds of a Federal Reserve rate increased.And many economists scratched their heads.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index had an annual inflation rate of 2.7% last month, while core CPI – a measure that excludes volatile food and energy prices – was even lower at 2.6%. Both were below than what economists ha ...

The stock market's Thursday rally hasn't come easy. The market benchmark index was up 1.4% in recent trading. The Dow was up 374 points, or 0.9%. The Nasdaq Composite was up 2%. The S&P and Nasdaq were on track for their best CPI release day since Jan. 15, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The market benchmark index was up 1.3% in recent trading. The Dow was up 420 points, or 0.9%. The Nasdaq Composite was up 1.9%. AI stocks rallied in the wake of Micron Technology's earnings, while the rest of the market ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November showed a headline increase of +0.2%, significantly below the expected +0.3% [1] - Year-over-year headline CPI, known as the Inflation Rate, came in at +2.7%, lower than the consensus expectation of +3.1% [1] - Core CPI year-over-year decreased to +2.6%, also surprising against expectations of +3.0% [1] Group 2: Energy and Food Prices - Energy prices rose by +1.1% over the two-month period, indicating potential for lower figures in the next CPI report [2] - Food prices increased by +0.1% and Shelter prices by +0.2%, suggesting inflation may be easing [2] - Prices for lodging away from home, recreation, and apparel decreased during this period [2] Group 3: Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims for the previous week were reported at +224K, down from a revised +237K the prior week [3] - The 4-week average of Jobless Claims is now +217K, indicating a stable labor market [3] - Continuing Claims rose to 1.897 million from a revised 1.830 million, marking a significant decrease in long-term jobless claims [4] Group 4: Market Reactions - Pre-market futures for major indexes increased significantly following the CPI and jobless claims reports, with the Dow rising from +100 to +215 points [6] - The S&P 500 moved from +41 to +53, and the Nasdaq increased from +280 to +344 points after the news [6] - Bond yields moderated to +4.12% on the 10-year and +3.46% on the 2-year, reflecting positive market sentiment [6]

Core Insights - Inflation remains elevated in November, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target rate, as policymakers consider potential interest rate cuts next year [1] - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in November compared to September and increased by 2.7% year-over-year [1] - Core prices, excluding volatile items like gasoline and food, increased by 0.3% from the previous month and 2.6% from a year ago, with the monthly figure meeting expectations but the annual figure being lower than anticipated [2] Data Collection Impact - The release of the November CPI inflation report was delayed due to a 43-day government shutdown, which affected data collection and postponed the release date from December 10 [3]

Group 1 - The Nasdaq is expected to open significantly higher due to optimism surrounding artificial intelligence developments [1] - The consumer price index (CPI) for November increased at an annual rate of 2.7%, which is lower than the anticipated 3% [1] - Following the CPI data, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January has risen to 28.8%, up from 24.4% earlier in the week [1]

us CPI. Photo by BeInCrypto US inflation slowed more than expected in November, delivering a clear downside surprise that could reshape near-term market and Federal Reserve expectations. According to fresh data released on December 18, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year over year, well below market expectations of 3.1%. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 2.6% year over year, also missing forecasts of 3.0%. The data marks a notable deceleration in price pres ...

Inflation pressures eased more than expected in November, according to the latest data on consumer prices published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% over the prior year in November, less than the 3.1% increase that had been expected by economists, according to Bloomberg estimates. On a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and energy, prices rose 2.6% over the prior year in November. Economists had also expected to see a 3.1 ...

Why don't we start off with your word of the day. >> Sure. My word of the day is grounded.We saw a little bit of that yesterday where investors are getting grounded. Thinking about the stock market and that it can't go on forever with double-digit returns. So, taking a pause, taking a breather, taking some profit taking, but investors really being discerning and asking the right questions and when do we see the benefits of AI.What are the use cases for it. How long will it take. What's the ROI.So the word o ...

Group 1 - The country's consumer-price index increased by 0.7% year-over-year last month [1] - The producer-price index experienced a decline of 2.2% [1]