All right, folks. The Dow 50,000 prosperity rocket ship. That's the subject of the riff.Of course, it is. To quote President Trump's truth social post, "Congratulations, America, on Dow 50,000." And the widely known index didn't just crawl over 50. It rocketed by, I think, 1,200 points as of the close.All those techy moaners and groaners have had their day in court, but they lost because they were up almost 2% today. and the broad-based S&P up almost 2% today. Look, it there's always a frothy selling period ...

Economic Overview - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped to 84.5 in January, a decline of 9.7 points from the previous month, marking a 12-year low [5] - The percentage of consumers who believe jobs are "plentiful" has decreased to 23.9%, the lowest since February 2021, while 20.8% of respondents find jobs "hard to find," the highest since February 2021 [6] - The labor market has been struggling, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4% in December, indicating potential further increases in January due to low consumer confidence [7] - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged amid high inflation, leading to uncertainty regarding its near-term monetary policy [8] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on low-beta, defensive stocks from the utility, healthcare, and consumer staples sectors to mitigate market volatility [3][4] - Recommended stocks include Ameren Corporation (AEE), Fortis, Inc. (FTS), Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH), and J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF), all of which have a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) [3][10] Company Profiles - **Ameren Corporation (AEE)**: A utility company serving nearly 2.4 million electric and over 900,000 natural gas customers, with an expected earnings growth rate of 8.2% for the current year and a dividend yield of 2.75% [9][11] - **Fortis, Inc. (FTS)**: Engaged in electric and gas utility business, with an expected earnings growth rate of 5.4% for the current year and a dividend yield of 3.42% [12][13] - **Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH)**: A major healthcare services provider serving nearly 90% of U.S. hospitals, with an expected earnings growth rate of 21.5% for the current year and a dividend yield of 0.95% [14][15] - **J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF)**: Manufacturer and distributor of branded snack foods, with an expected earnings growth rate of 4.5% for the current year and a dividend yield of 3.37% [16][17]

Core Insights - U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since 2014, dropping 9.7 points to 84.5 in January, below pandemic-era lows [1][2] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The January reading of 84.5 is the lowest since May 2014, when the index was at 82.2, and it has fallen below the worst levels recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - All five components of the consumer confidence index deteriorated, indicating a broad decline in consumer sentiment [3][8] Group 2: Present Situation and Expectations - The present situation index decreased by 9.9 points to 113.7, reflecting worsened perceptions of current business and labor market conditions [5] - The expectations index fell by 9.5 points to 65.1, significantly below the 80 threshold that typically signals an impending recession [5][6] Group 3: Demographic Insights - The decline in consumer confidence was widespread across political affiliations, with the sharpest drop observed among Independents [8] - Confidence levels varied by age and income, with consumers under 35 showing more optimism compared to older groups, while those earning less than $15,000 remained the least optimistic [9] Group 4: Financial Outlook - Consumers' views on their current financial situation improved slightly in January, but expectations for future financial conditions declined [12] - The proportion of consumers believing a recession is "very likely" in the next year increased, while those who think a recession is "not likely" decreased [13][14]

Core Insights - The K-shaped economy is becoming evident in consumer spending patterns, with a clear divide between higher- and lower-income consumers as the economy heads into 2026 [1][2] Consumer Spending Trends - Higher-income consumers are performing well, with strong spending on real assets and homes, while lower-income cohorts are struggling due to persistent inflation [2] - Retail sales in the U.S. appear resilient, but the strength is narrow, with consumers being selective and prioritizing brand loyalty and perceived value in discretionary purchases [2] ETF Performance and Strategy - Value-oriented retailers are benefiting from this selectivity, with ETFs focused on companies like Walmart, Costco, and off-price chains showing strong performance driven by a few value leaders [3] - Consumer staples ETFs are gaining traction as lower-income households reduce spending, indicating a shift towards defensive market segments [4] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence remains low despite equity markets nearing record highs, creating a disconnect that is unusual in the current economic climate [5] Investment Strategies - ETF investors are advised to adopt active strategies that focus on companies catering to value-conscious shoppers and benefiting from productivity gains through AI, while avoiding broad exposure to vulnerable segments [6] - Employment security is a critical factor influencing consumer spending behavior, with job security leading to increased spending and insecurity prompting more selective purchasing [7]

Core Insights - The furniture industry is experiencing a significant decline in consumer spending due to economic uncertainty and decreased consumer confidence, leading to a 6% decrease in furniture shipments from August 2024 to August 2025 [2][4] - Retailers are adjusting their ordering habits in response to tariffs, as evidenced by a 3% increase in furniture stockpiles, indicating a cautious approach to inventory management [2] - The sluggish housing market is also impacting furniture sales, although there are hopes for a resurgence with higher inventory and reduced interest rates [5] Industry Trends - Consumer caution is heavily affecting the furniture sector, with discretionary purchases being delayed and retailers struggling to generate excitement with new products [3] - The industry is facing ongoing weak consumer interest, with concerns about complacency and a lack of new product introductions, which are essential for stimulating consumer interest [6] - Several furniture brands have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, highlighting the financial strain within the industry, including a recent filing by Novi Studios Inc. [6] Economic Context - Economic struggles are leading consumers to pull back on non-essential spending, even among those in relatively strong financial positions [7] - The overall economic environment is causing consumers to delay furniture purchases, as furniture is often viewed as a discretionary and deferrable expense [4]

Group 1 - Holiday travel in the United States is expected to exceed previous records, driven by lower gas prices and increased consumer confidence [1][2] - More than 122 million Americans are anticipated to travel this season, representing a 2% year-over-year increase [2] - 89% of travelers are expected to drive, with average gas prices at $2.85 per gallon, down from $3 or $4 a year ago [3][5] Group 2 - Air travel is also experiencing record levels, although airfares have increased by 7% year-over-year, averaging nearly $900 [4][5] - The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) forecasts a peak travel volume of approximately 2.86 million on a specific Sunday, slightly higher than the previous year's busiest day [6] - Major aviation stocks have seen slight increases, with the US Global Jets ETF up 8.68% this month, indicating positive momentum in the airline sector [6][7]

Core Insights - Holiday shoppers are willing to spend but are seeking value, leading to increased traffic and sales at Tanger's outlet centers [1][2] - Retailers are responding to consumer demand by offering promotions, resulting in full parking lots and steady activity during the holiday season [2] - Mastercard reported a 3.9% year-over-year increase in retail sales for November and December, while Visa noted a 4.2% increase in holiday retail spending [3] Retail Performance - Simon Property Group reported a 6.4% year-over-year increase in traffic at its malls and premium outlets during the Black Friday weekend, with many brands experiencing double-digit sales increases [4] - The overall retail environment is thriving, despite a decline in consumer confidence [4] Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board reported a 3.8-point drop in consumer confidence in December, marking the fifth consecutive decline, affecting various demographics [5] - Factors influencing consumer sentiment include prices, inflation, tariffs, and personal finance issues [6]

Market Reactions - The bond market is reacting to recent data releases, with the two-year bonds showing more strength in holding upside compared to ten-year bonds [1] - The ten-year bond yield is approaching a resistance level of 419 to 420, which has been a significant point over the past two weeks [2] Economic Indicators - The dollar index experienced a notable increase following the data release, although it does not significantly change the overall economic outlook [3] - A close below 9814 in the dollar index would mark a two and a half month low, indicating potential weakness in the currency [3] Inflation and Interest Rates - There is a mixed picture regarding inflation, with one report indicating hot inflation while others suggest cooler inflation trends [4] - Historically, a strong economy tends to correlate with higher long-term interest rates, which is not necessarily negative [4] Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence is perceived to be low, influenced by negative media portrayals and a lack of credit given to the current administration by the markets [5]

Bond Market Analysis - Two-year Treasury yields show more aggressive upside holding after data release [1] - Ten-year Treasury yield faces resistance around 419 to 420, a level dating back nearly two weeks [2] - A settlement above 419 on the ten-year yield would represent a three and a half month high [2] Economic Indicators - Dollar Index initially rose upon data release at 8:30 but the general picture remains unchanged [3] - A close below 9814 on the Dollar Index would mark a two and a half month low [3] - The speaker expresses skepticism about reaching a 2% inflation rate [3] - Conflicting inflation reports exist, with some indicating hot inflation and others indicating cool inflation [4] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence data is dismissed due to perceived media and administration influence [5]

Market Outlook - The current year is viewed as a "unicorn year" for investors, with consumers expected to regain control over spending due to upcoming tax cuts [2][3] - The S&P 500 target is set at 7,600, indicating an anticipated increase of 11% from current levels, driven by consumer spending [3][10] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence has been low but is expected to improve with the introduction of tax cuts, which will provide additional disposable income [5][9] - Sectors such as discretionary and staples have underperformed, but the anticipated tax cuts could revitalize these stocks [6] Economic Indicators - Home prices have increased by 50% since 2018, contributing to an affordability crisis, which remains a significant concern for consumers [7] - The impact of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is beginning to be felt in the economy, potentially aiding in the stabilization of home prices [8] Inflation and Wage Growth - Inflation is expected to decrease as wage growth has started to decline, which could provide relief to consumers [9] - Mortgage rates remain uncertain, but there are positive signs for the economy that could support a bullish outlook [10] Market Dynamics - The current market rally has been driven by valuation expansion, but future growth is expected to rely more on earnings growth rather than further valuation increases [11][12] - The focus for 2026 will shift to earnings growth as the primary driver of market performance, with a slight contraction in valuations anticipated this year [12][13]