点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：短期铜价震荡，仍看好2026年铜价上行 （1）铜矿：2025年10月中国铜精矿产量为13.7 万吨，环比12.9%，同比-9.9%；11月全球铜精矿产量为 192.3万吨，同比-1.9%，环比-0.6%。（2）废铜：截至2026年2月6日，精废价差为3127 元/吨，环比1月30 日-504 元/吨。 冶炼：本周TC现货价续创新低 1）产量：2026年1月SMM中国电解铜产量117.93万吨，环比+0.1%，同比+16.3%。（2）TC：截至2026年 2月6日，TC现货价为-51.23 美元/吨，环比1月30日-0.9 美元/吨，处于2007年9月以来低位。（3）进出 口：2025年12月电解铜进口26万吨，环比- ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement despite current demand pressures [2]. Supply and Demand - As of January 23, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 101,340 CNY/ton, up 0.57% from January 16, while LME copper closed at 13,129 USD/ton, up 2.54% [2]. - The TC spot price has reached a new low, indicating tight procurement of copper concentrate; cable enterprises' operating rates have increased week-on-week, but domestic social inventory continues to grow, which may suppress demand due to rising copper prices [2]. - The supply-demand outlook for 2026 remains tight, with continued optimism for rising copper prices [2]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 2.9%, while LME copper inventory rose by 16.9% [3]. - As of January 23, 2026, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 719,000 tons, up 4.1% from the previous week [3]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 960,000 tons, up 6.2% from January 16; LME copper global inventory was 172,000 tons, up 16.9% [3]. Supply - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 526 CNY/ton week-on-week [4]. - In October 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year; global copper concentrate production in November was 1.923 million tons, down 1.9% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [4]. Smelting - The TC spot price reached -50 USD/ton, marking a historical low [5]. - In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1781 million tons, up 6.8% month-on-month and 7.5% year-on-year [5]. - In December 2025, electrolytic copper imports were 260,000 tons, down 4.0% month-on-month and 29.8% year-on-year; exports were 96,000 tons, down 32.7% month-on-month but up 473.4% year-on-year [5]. Demand - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with cable enterprises' operating rate at 58.71%, up 2.72 percentage points week-on-week [6]. - The air conditioning sector, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to see production changes of +11%, -11.4%, and -2.4% from January to March 2026 [6]. - Copper rod production, accounting for about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had a brass rod operating rate of 52.74%, up 2.56 percentage points month-on-month but down 3.40 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Futures - As of January 23, 2026, the SHFE copper active contract position increased by 6.4% week-on-week, with a total position of 231,000 lots [7]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 53,000 lots, down 1.6% week-on-week [7].

Group 1 - Copper prices have unexpectedly surged, rising over $2,410 per ton since mid-October 2022, with recent prices reaching $13,238 per ton [2] - The increase in copper prices is attributed to U.S. government actions leading to a significant rise in copper imports for stockpiling rather than demand, particularly due to tariffs on semi-finished copper products [2] - COMEX copper inventories have increased to over 503,000 tons, compared to less than 100,000 tons a year ago, indicating a supply surplus [2] Group 2 - Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of current copper prices, citing a disconnect from tariffs, macroeconomic conditions, and fundamental market realities [3] - Concerns about supply shortages outside the U.S. and speculative interest have driven prices up, but these factors are losing momentum, and macroeconomic risks remain [3] - The net long positions in the LME are nearing record levels, suggesting potential volatility in prices as market dynamics shift [4] Group 3 - Demand from China, which accounts for 58%-60% of global copper consumption, is expected to grow only slightly by 0.7% in 2026, compared to a 2.6% growth rate in the previous year [5] - Global demand growth is projected at 2.3% for 2026, lower than the 4.1% growth expected in 2025, reflecting economic slowdowns [5] - Nornickel forecasts a slight oversupply in the copper market, estimating a surplus of 11.7 million tons in 2025 and a similar surplus in 2026 [6] Group 4 - The surge in copper prices has incentivized mining companies and exploration firms, leading to new resource discoveries and expansion opportunities despite high interest rates [7] - Countries like Oman are reviving copper mining after years of neglect, while Russian copper projects continue to receive financing despite previous sanctions [7] Group 5 - China's copper industry faces three main challenges: increasing reliance on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [8]