Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, which may lead to short-term fluctuations in copper prices and affect global supply dynamics [3]. Macro Analysis - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, which may halt the arbitrage of copper inventory flowing to the U.S. since February 2025 [3]. - The SHFE copper closing price was 78,430 CNY/ton, down 1.63% from July 4, while LME copper closed at 9,663 USD/ton, down 1.92% [3]. Inventory Overview - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 9% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 12% [4]. - As of July 11, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 646,000 tons, down 3.1% from the previous week [4]. Raw Material Insights - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 836 CNY/ton this week [5]. - China's copper concentrate production in March 2025 was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. Smelting Data - The TC spot price remained around -43 USD/ton, indicating low levels not seen since September 2007 [6]. - China's electrolytic copper production in June 2025 was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.3% month-on-month but up 12.9% year-on-year [6]. Demand Analysis - Cable operating rates increased by 3.7 percentage points week-on-week, with cable demand accounting for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [7]. - Air conditioning production is expected to slow down, with year-on-year declines projected for July to September [7]. Futures Market - SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 12.6% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 17.6% [8]. - As of July 11, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions were at 179,000 lots, which is at the 48th percentile since 1995 [8].

Freeport Surges on Copper Tariff News. Get caught up on the day's gainers and decliners on the latest Stock Movers report https://t.co/HxsWnNg4Bn ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Freeport-McMoRan generated $1.9 billion in EBITDA for Q1 2025, with expectations for improved margins and cash flows in the remaining quarters of the year [16][56] - The company anticipates a 20% increase in quarterly copper sales volumes and nearly four times the gold sales compared to Q1 levels, with unit net cash costs expected to be 30% lower on average in the remaining quarters [17][56] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Copper and gold production met expectations, with copper sales exceeding forecasts, while gold shipments were impacted by timing [15][16] - The smelter repairs are ahead of schedule, and the company is making significant progress on low-cost leach innovation projects in the US [18][41] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Copper prices ranged from $3.94 to $4.53 per pound on the London Metals Exchange, reaching a high of $5.22 per pound on the US COMEX exchange in March [25] - The US copper market is experiencing a premium of approximately 13% above LME prices, translating to an estimated $800 million annual financial benefit for Freeport's US copper sales [30][31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to be a global leader in copper, focusing on large-scale copper-producing assets and a strong balance sheet to support long-term growth [9][10] - Freeport is pursuing innovative projects to enhance margins and profitability, including a target of 300 million pounds per annum from leach production by year-end 2025 [21][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong fundamentals of the copper market, driven by increasing demand for electrification and infrastructure investments [25][26] - The company is well-positioned to meet rising demand with a robust pipeline of projects and a focus on operational excellence [18][46] Other Important Information - The company has repurchased 2.3 million shares for approximately $80 million year-to-date, reflecting a commitment to returning cash to shareholders [19][60] - Freeport's capital expenditures are expected to approximate $4.4 billion in 2025 and 2026, with significant investments in growth projects [57][58] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expected cost reduction or efficiency gains from the Baghdad autonomous haulage system - Management highlighted that the autonomous haulage system at Baghdad is expected to reduce staffing needs and improve efficiency, targeting an average cost of $2.50 per pound by 2027 [66][70] Question: Update on the new smelter and concentrate export permit in Indonesia - Management confirmed that they have sufficient quota to meet sales targets and expect the new smelter to ramp up to full capacity over a six-month period starting in May [74][80] Question: Feasibility of the Baghdad expansion given current economic conditions - Management is reviewing the economics of the Baghdad expansion project, considering infrastructure investments that are necessary regardless of the project's status [83][130] Question: Potential for Freeport to accumulate assets in the US - Management stated they are always looking for opportunities to enhance their position in the US, particularly given their existing resources and infrastructure [134][136]