Group 1 - Corn futures experienced fractional to 1 ¼ cent losses on Thursday, with deferred contracts slightly higher [1] - The national average Cash Corn price increased by ½ cent to $3.94 1/2 [1] - Ethanol production for the week ending on 2/13 was reported at 1.118 million barrels per day, an increase of 8,000 bpd from the previous week, while stocks rose by 341,000 barrels to 25.588 million barrels [1] Group 2 - Export Sales data is expected to be released on Friday, with estimates ranging from 0.6 to 2.2 million metric tons of corn sold for the week ending on 2/12 [2] - The USDA's estimate for US corn acreage is projected at 94 million acres, a decrease of 4.8 million acres if realized this spring, which is below previous estimates [2] - Corn production is estimated to total 15.755 billion bushels, with a trend yield of 183 bushels per acre [2] Group 3 - The International Grains Council reported that corn stocks remain unchanged at 305 million metric tons for the 2025/26 period, despite a 1 million metric ton increase in consumption [3] - March 26 Corn closed at $4.25 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents, while nearby Cash was at $3.92 1/2, also down 1 1/4 cents [3] - May 26 Corn closed at $4.36 1/4, down 1/2 cent, and July 26 Corn closed at $4.44 1/2, down 1/4 cent [3]

Group 1 - Corn futures are experiencing midday losses ranging from 1 to 2.5 cents, with the CmdtyView national average cash corn price increasing by 0.5 cents to $3.94 1/2 [1] - Ethanol production for the week ending on February 13 was reported at 1.118 million barrels per day, an increase of 8,000 barrels per day from the previous week, while stocks rose by 341,000 barrels to 25.588 million barrels [1] - The USDA's armchair estimate for the US corn balance sheet indicated an acreage estimate of 94 million acres, a decrease of 4.8 million acres if realized this spring, with corn production estimated at 15.755 billion bushels and trend yield at 183 bushels per acre [2] Group 2 - The International Grains Council reported that corn stocks are unchanged at 305 million metric tons for the 2025/26 period, despite a consumption increase of 1 million metric tons [3] - Current corn prices include March 26 Corn at $4.24 1/2, Nearby Cash at $3.91 1/4, May 26 Corn at $4.35, and July 26 Corn at $4.43 1/2, all showing slight declines [3]

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [5] Core Insights - Urea prices have increased significantly, with US NoLa urea prices rising by $36/st to $440-552/st fob WoW, driven by potential Chinese export resumption and strong domestic demand [1] - Potash prices have seen modest increases, with SE-Asia MOP prices up by $5/t to $335-355/t cfr WoW, while US NoLa MOP prices rose by $2/st to $315-320/st fob [2] - Phosphate prices remained largely unchanged, although select markets are experiencing upward price pressure due to changes in Indian pricing policies and potential updates on Chinese phosphate fertilizer exports [3] Summary by Sections Urea Market - China is expected to resume urea exports in May, with a projected export quota of 3-4 million tons for 2025, while US prices have jumped significantly [1] - Brazilian urea prices increased by $13/t to $390-415/t cfr, reflecting a shift in market dynamics post-China news [1] Potash Market - Potash prices in SE-Asia rose by $5/t to $335-355/t cfr, while US NoLa prices increased by $2/st to $315-320/st fob, indicating stable demand despite a quiet market [2] - Chinese port inventories have dropped below 2 million tons, prompting expectations for new contract settlements [2] Phosphate Market - Most global DAP/MAP benchmarks remained stable, but Indian players are expected to increase activity in the market following the reversal of a price ceiling [3] - Updates on Chinese phosphate fertilizer exports are anticipated, with discussions on DAP/MAP export quota allocations expected to follow the Chinese Labor Day holiday [3] Soy Crush Dynamics - Brazil's soy harvest is 94.8% complete, ahead of last year's pace, while Argentina's harvest is lagging at 23.6% complete [9] - US soybean planting is at a record 18% complete, with the EPA issuing an emergency waiver for E15 sales during the summer driving season [9] - Global soy crush margins have mostly increased, with US margins rising to $1.33/bu, driven by lower input costs [10]