CF Industries (NYSE:CF) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 19, 2026 11:00 AM ET Speaker13Good day, and welcome to the CF Industries Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please p ...

Nigerian industrial conglomerate Dangote Group has signed a $400m construction equipment agreement with XCMG Construction Machinery, a Chinese manufacturer of construction machinery. The agreement will help boost the capacity of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day. This expansion aims to position it among the largest refineries in the world. The agreement enables Dangote to access a wider range of advanced construction equipment for ...

Core Insights - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is experiencing strong demand for nitrogen fertilizers and higher nitrogen prices, despite challenges from rising natural gas costs [1][4][11] Group 1: Market Demand and Trends - The global demand for nitrogen fertilizers is expected to remain robust due to recovering industrial demand and favorable farmer economics, particularly in the U.S. with high corn-planted acres [3][7] - CF Industries is witnessing strong urea demand from Brazil and India, driven by increased corn plantings in Brazil and low inventory levels in India [3][11] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the third quarter, CF Industries reported a 21% year-over-year increase in net sales, reaching approximately $1.66 billion, attributed to strong global nitrogen demand and supply disruptions [4][11] - The company generated $1.06 billion in net cash from operating activities in the third quarter, a 14% increase year-over-year, and returned $445 million to shareholders [5] Group 3: Cost Pressures - CF Industries faces challenges from rising natural gas prices, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers, with the average cost increasing to $2.96 per MMBtu in the third quarter from $2.10 per MMBtu a year ago [6] - The average natural gas cost for the first nine months rose to $3.34 per MMBtu from $2.38 per MMBtu in the previous year, impacting the company's margins [6] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Other major players in the fertilizer market, such as Nutrien and Mosaic, are also navigating varying demand conditions, with Nutrien expecting record crop production and Mosaic facing challenges in North American fertilizer demand [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is positioned as a leading investment opportunity in the fertilizer sector, bolstered by a significant joint venture with JERA and a long-term subsidy agreement [1][2]. Group 1: Joint Venture and Subsidy - JERA, Japan's largest power generator, has secured a 15-year subsidy to cover the price difference between ammonia and coal as it begins importing ammonia for its planned US plant [2]. - The joint venture between CF Industries and JERA is part of the Blue Point project, which involves building extensive low-carbon ammonia facilities in Louisiana at a cost of $4 billion [2][3]. - CF Industries holds a 40% stake in the Blue Point project, while JERA owns 35% and Mitsui holds 25% [3]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Analysts at Mizuho have lowered their price target for CF Industries from $92 to $88, maintaining a Neutral rating due to anticipated weakness in Q1 2026 [4]. - RBC Capital has also reduced its price target for CF Industries from $95 to $90, citing stable agricultural and fertilizer fundamentals for 2026 [4]. Group 3: Company Overview - CF Industries is a major global manufacturer and distributor of nitrogen and hydrogen products, primarily focusing on fertilizers such as ammonia, urea, UAN, and ammonium nitrate, which enhance agricultural productivity [5].

Summary of China Agriculture: Fertilizers Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Fertilizer sector in China - **Importance**: Fertilizers are essential for enhancing agricultural productivity and ensuring food security in China, which produces nearly one-third of global fertilizers while utilizing only 9% of global cropland [2][9] Key Insights 1. **Phosphate Fertilizer Outlook**: - Anticipated improvement in phosphate fertilizer pricing due to higher utilization driven by increased compound fertilizer consumption [2][17] - Expected domestic phosphate rock pricing to rise from Rmb1,000/t to Rmb1,051/t in 2026E and Rmb1,150/t by 2030E, reflecting a structural deficit in supply [9][26] 2. **Urea Market Dynamics**: - Deterioration in urea balance expected due to new supply additions, with potential easing of exports providing upside risk [2][17] - Forecasted decline in domestic urea pricing by 5% in 2026E [17] 3. **Potash Market Conditions**: - Rising surplus in the domestic potash market anticipated as Laos expansion by Chinese producers ramps up [2][17] - Potash benchmark pricing revised down by 3% for 2026E due to surplus outlook [17] 4. **Product Upgrades and Efficiency**: - Increased penetration of slow-release and water-soluble fertilizers expected to drive better growth than the industry average, enhancing absorption efficiency [3][9] - Projected growth in slow-release/water-soluble fertilizer market share from nearly 10% in 2024A to 40% by 2030E [13] Company Coverage Initiation 1. **Yuntianhua (YTH)**: - Rating: Buy - Target Price: Rmb45.0/sh, implying 43% upside - Key Strength: Integrated producer with self-sufficient phosphate rock resources [4][20] 2. **Xinlianxin (XLX)**: - Rating: Neutral - Target Price: HK$8.5/sh, implying 7% downside - Key Strength: Low-cost urea producer with differentiated slow-release fertilizer offerings [4][20] 3. **New Yonfer**: - Rating: Neutral - Target Price: Rmb16.0/sh, implying 2% upside - Key Strength: Leading high-end compound fertilizer producer with potential for upstream resource integration [4][20] 4. **Qinhai Salt Lake (QHL)**: - Rating: Sell - Target Price: Rmb16.0/sh, implying 37% downside - Key Concern: Surplus outlook in the domestic potash market [4][20] Additional Insights - **Global Trade Position**: China has historically contributed significantly to global fertilizer trade, with 29% of global urea exports and 30% of MAP/DAP exports at its peak [17] - **Environmental Considerations**: The report highlights the importance of improving absorption efficiency in fertilizers to address challenges posed by structural tightness in natural resources [9][25] Conclusion - The fertilizer sector in China is poised for changes driven by supply-demand dynamics, product upgrades, and strategic company positioning. The outlook for phosphate fertilizers appears positive, while urea and potash markets face challenges. The initiation of coverage on key players reflects a strategic approach to capitalize on these trends.

Core Viewpoint - Adecoagro S.A. has submitted a binding offer to acquire YPF's 50% stake in Profertil S.A., the largest producer of granular urea in South America, for approximately US$600 million, which is expected to enhance the company's scale and diversify its portfolio [1][2][5]. Acquisition Details - The offer is under similar terms to those previously agreed with Nutrien, and acceptance is subject to approval by YPF's Board of Directors in December 2025 [2]. - Upon completion, Adecoagro will control 90% of Profertil, with the remaining 10% held by Asociación de Cooperativas Argentinas [3]. Financial Aspects - The acquisition will be financed through existing cash balances, a new long-term credit facility, and proceeds from equity sales [3]. - Profertil has an annual capacity of approximately 1.3 million metric tons of urea and 790 thousand metric tons of ammonia, supplying about 60% of Argentina's urea consumption, with an average annual EBITDA of approximately US$390 million from 2020 to 2024 [4]. Strategic Importance - The acquisition is seen as a significant milestone for Adecoagro, enhancing its position as a key supplier in the regional agricultural sector and integrating a business with strong fundamentals and consistent cash generation [5]. - Profertil's strategic location in Bahia Blanca, Argentina, provides access to competitively priced natural gas and electricity, reinforcing Adecoagro's commitment to operational excellence [5]. Operational Integration - The transaction is expected to be completed by December 31, 2025, after fulfilling customary closing conditions, and Profertil will be fully consolidated into Adecoagro's operations [5].

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is highlighted as a potentially undervalued stock in the nitrogen fertilizer sector, with strong fundamentals and a competitive position in the market [1][12]. Business Overview - CF Industries operates nitrogen manufacturing complexes in the U.S. and the U.K., benefiting from scale, low-cost natural gas, and export access [2]. - The company generates substantial free cash flow across cycles, despite fluctuations in fertilizer demand driven by crop prices and natural gas costs [2]. Financial Metrics - CF's intrinsic value to price (IV/P) ratio is 1.10, indicating that its intrinsic value is approximately 10% higher than its current market price, suggesting undervaluation [5]. - Key financial metrics include a market cap of approximately US$ 12.75 billion, an enterprise value estimated between US$ 18 billion and US$ 19 billion, and a free cash flow of about US$ 1.71 billion [6]. Revenue & Profitability - For the trailing twelve months (TTM), CF reported revenue of US$ 6.73 billion, operating income of US$ 2.09 billion, and a net income of US$ 1.38 billion, reflecting a net margin of approximately 20% [7]. - The company maintains double-digit margins and strong earnings despite a downturn from the 2022 fertilizer boom [7]. Balance Sheet Strength - CF's balance sheet shows cash and equivalents of approximately US$ 1.84 billion, total debt of about US$ 3.40 billion, and shareholders' equity of around US$ 4.85 billion, indicating manageable leverage and ample liquidity [8]. - The cash generation supports debt servicing, dividends, and buybacks, essential for its capital-intensive operations [8]. Capital Returns - CF has a dividend yield of approximately 2.5% and has repurchased about US$ 1.4 billion in shares over the TTM, demonstrating a commitment to returning capital to shareholders [10]. - The aggressive buyback strategy is a key driver of intrinsic value growth [10]. Investment Thesis - CF is positioned as a durable, cash-generating business with a competitive cost structure and strong free cash flow, trading at a discount to its intrinsic value [12]. - The company is seen as undervalued due to market assumptions of declining future profitability, despite its ability to compound capital at attractive rates [11][12]. Industry Context - Global nitrogen demand is structurally linked to population growth and food needs, providing a steady market for CF's products [15]. - North American gas cost advantages create a competitive moat for CF against higher-cost international producers [15].

Core Insights - Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) and CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) are major players in the fertilizer industry, benefiting from strong agricultural market conditions and favorable farm economics, which are driving global fertilizer demand [1][30] - Both companies are experiencing robust demand for their products, with NTR seeing record potash sales and CF capitalizing on the growing demand for nitrogen fertilizers [5][12] Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) - NTR is experiencing healthy demand for crop nutrients, supported by cost-reduction actions and strategic acquisitions, alongside improved fertilizer prices [4] - The company anticipates record crop production in the U.S. and has raised its potash sales volume guidance for 2025 to 14-14.5 million tons due to higher global demand [5] - NTR is expanding its presence in Brazil and plans to use part of its free cash flow for growth investments, including acquisitions in its retail business [6] - Cost efficiency initiatives are expected to yield around $200 million in savings for 2025, with the company ahead of schedule on its cost-reduction goals [7] - NTR's operating cash flow surged 150% year-over-year to $1,030 million for the first nine months of 2025, driven by higher selling prices and sales volumes [8] - The company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in the first nine months of 2025, with a healthy dividend yield of approximately 3.9% and a payout ratio of 57% [9] - NTR faces challenges from volatile input costs, particularly due to supply disruptions and rising prices for sulfur and natural gas [10] CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) - CF is benefiting from strong global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, with industrial demand recovering post-pandemic [12] - The company expects robust nitrogen demand driven by high corn planting in the U.S. and strong demand for urea in Brazil and India [13] - The global nitrogen outlook remains positive, supported by strong demand and tight supply, with energy cost advantages favoring North American producers [14] - CF's revenues increased by approximately 21% year-over-year to around $1.66 billion in the third quarter, driven by higher nitrogen prices [15] - The company returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in the first nine months of 2025 and completed a $3 billion share repurchase program [16] - CF offers a dividend yield of roughly 2.6% with a payout ratio of 24% and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 14.3% [17] - The company is facing headwinds from rising natural gas prices, which increased significantly in the first nine months of 2025 [18] Price Performance and Valuation - NTR's stock has increased by 25.7% year-to-date, while CF's stock has declined by 9%, compared to an 8% rise in the Zacks Fertilizers industry [19] - NTR is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.32, slightly above the industry average of 12.21 [20] - CF is trading at a lower forward earnings multiple of 10.79, indicating a more attractive valuation compared to NTR [21] Earnings Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NTR's 2025 sales implies a year-over-year rise of 3.5%, with EPS expected to increase by 30.6% [26] - CF's 2025 sales and EPS estimates imply a year-over-year rise of 17.6% and 31.8%, respectively, indicating strong growth potential [27] Comparative Analysis - Both NTR and CF are benefiting from strong agricultural markets and improving fertilizer prices, while also facing rising input costs [11][30] - CF appears to have a slight edge over NTR due to its more attractive valuation and higher dividend growth rate, along with better earnings growth projections [30]

Financial Performance - Adecoagro's gross revenues for 3Q25 were $323 million, a decrease of 29% compared to the same period last year[14] - Gross revenues for 9M25 reached $1,039 million, a decrease of 6% compared to the same period last year[14] - Adjusted EBITDA for 3Q25 was $115 million, a 4% increase compared to the same period last year[14] - Adjusted EBITDA for 9M25 was $206 million, a decrease of 39% compared to the same period last year, this includes one-off expenses of $9.2 million from Tether's tender offer[14, 15] Business Segment Highlights - **Sugar, Ethanol & Energy:** Quarterly crushing record was achieved, with a shift towards ethanol production due to greater cane availability[12] - Sugar production decreased by 16% in 3Q25 to 255,563 tons and 21% in 9M25 to 518,381 tons[27] - Ethanol production increased by 42% in 3Q25 to 216,113 m3 and 3% in 9M25 to 445,553 m3[28] - **Farming:** The company is reducing planted area and improving crop mix to enhance future margins[11] - **Rice:** Global prices for long-grain white rice are declining, leading to a reduction in planted area and an increased focus on premium varieties[11] - **Dairy:** Cow productivity and industrial volume reached record levels, with a focus on fluid milk production for the domestic market[11] Capital Allocation and Debt - Net debt evolution as of 3Q25 is $872 million[64] - The company made a $96 million initial down payment for the acquisition of Nutrien's 50% stake in Profertil[62] - $45.2 million was distributed to shareholders, including $35 million in cash dividends ($0.35 per share) and $10.2 million in share repurchases (1.1 million shares at an average price of $9.65 per share)[69]

Core Insights - Adecoagro S.A. reported its third-quarter results for 2025, highlighting a mixed performance across its business segments, with a notable increase in Adjusted EBITDA for the Sugar, Ethanol & Energy business but a decline in the Farming business [1][2]. Sugar, Ethanol & Energy Business - Adjusted EBITDA reached $120.5 million in 3Q25, a 20.3% increase year-over-year, while year-to-date it totaled $218.4 million, down 15.6% compared to 9M24 [3]. - The company shifted to an ethanol-max scenario, achieving 58% in 3Q25 and 55% in 9M25 due to better margins compared to sugar [3]. - Crushing volumes hit an all-time record of 4.9 million tons in 3Q25, a 20.4% increase from 3Q24, with year-to-date crushing at 9.8 million tons [3]. - Production costs remained stable in 3Q25, but year-to-date costs increased to 8.3 cents per pound from 7.8 cents per pound in 9M24 due to lower TRS equivalent produced [3]. - Net sales declined in both 3Q25 and 9M25 due to lower selling volumes and prices of sugar, despite a recovery in ethanol prices [3]. Farming Business - Adjusted EBITDA for the Farming business was $1.5 million in 3Q25 and $19.2 million in 9M25, down $15.9 million and $80.0 million year-over-year, respectively [4]. - Excluding the sale of La Pecuaria farm, Adjusted EBITDA decreased by $65.0 million year-to-date [4]. - Higher volumes of dairy products and crops were sold, but lower prices for crops, rice, and dairy products negatively impacted results [4]. - The company experienced year-over-year losses in the mark-to-market of biological assets for the 2024/25 harvest season and faced higher costs in U.S. dollar terms for the same period [4]. Acquisition Strategy - Adecoagro announced an agreement to acquire Nutrien Ltd.'s 50% interest in Profertil S.A. for approximately $600 million, with an initial down payment of $120 million [7]. - This acquisition is expected to enhance Adecoagro's agro-industrial platform and diversify its revenue base, as Profertil is one of the lowest-cost producers of urea globally [7]. - The acquisition is structured as an 80%-20% partnership between Adecoagro and Asociación de Cooperativas Argentinas, with closing expected before year-end [7]. Shareholder Distribution - The company will pay a second cash dividend of $17.5 million on November 19, 2025, completing a total annual cash dividend of $35.0 million [8]. - In 2025, Adecoagro also repurchased 1.1% of its equity, totaling $10.2 million [8]. Farmland Valuation - As of September 30, 2025, Adecoagro's farmland, consisting of 210,371 hectares, was valued at $714.8 million, reflecting a 4.7% year-over-year increase [9].