Financial institutions extended ¥392 billion ($55.6 billion) of new yuan loans in the month, falling short of economists' median forecast of ¥450 billion , based on data released by the Household loans contracted for a second straight month in November, the first time in data going back to 2005, indicating a prolonged period of net repayment of debt from residents. A bleak job market and deteriorating housing market means individuals are focusing on paying down their debt, which threatens to slow growth fu ...

Even as the Reserve Bank of India ) on Friday delivered 25 basis points repo rate cut, banks are unlikely to cut term deposit and marginal cost of funds-based lending rate (MCLR) aggressively, senior bankers say. Tough competition for deposits and need to protect their net interest margins (NIM) are the key reasons for banks to maintain the interest rate at current levels, they say.Says CS Setty, Chairman, State Bank of India, “It is a shallow rate cut of 25 bps, I don’t think banks will cut deposit rate ag ...

Indian Economic Outlook - India could benefit from a potential burst in the "air bubble" due to its limited exposure to hyperscaler stocks and data center capacity stocks [2][3] - Axis Bank's chief economist anticipates a cyclical recovery in the Indian economy driven by the reversal of monetary tightening and the end of hard fiscal tightening [5] - The market expects 12-month forward earnings to rise as the economic recovery comes in [6] - Mishra anticipates more than 7% growth in the Indian economy [9] Financial Services Industry Trends - Fundamentals, such as economic growth, credit build-out, and market structure, are more significant than volatility in driving the financial services industry [11] - Lending in India has grown at a nominal rate of 15% to 15.5% annualized over a 50-year period, but has come down to about 11% in the last ten years [13][14] - Government spending slowed down, impacting the economy, but is now recovering [16][17] - Credit growth in India is currently running at about 10%, with a credit growth to GDP growth ratio of 1:1, lower than the historical average of 1.25% to 1.3% [22] - India has a capital deficit, particularly in long-duration capital, and the government is working to attract long-term capital into the financial services sector [24][26] - The number of banks in India has decreased over the last ten years due to the government's merging of public sector banks, reducing competitive intensity [28][29]

Group 1: Market Overview - Air-related stocks are experiencing a significant downturn across global markets, raising questions about India's potential to benefit if the bubble bursts [1] - India currently lacks significant air play and hyperscaler stocks, positioning it as a potential growth opportunity if investors seek alternatives [2][3] Group 2: Economic Recovery - The reversal of monetary tightening and the end of hard fiscal tightening are driving a cyclical recovery in the Indian economy, with expectations of over 7% growth [5][9] - In the past year, India faced a 12% cut in earnings revisions, making it one of the worst-performing markets, but this trend is expected to change as economic recovery takes hold [7][8] Group 3: Financial Services Sector - The financial services industry is poised to benefit significantly from the anticipated economic growth and revival in credit growth, alongside increased foreign investment and potential mergers of small public sector banks [10][9] - Lending in India has historically grown at a nominal rate of 15% annually, but this has decreased to about 11% in recent years, indicating a need for renewed growth [13][14] Group 4: Government Spending and Consumption - Government spending and personal consumption expenditure have been the main drivers of the Indian economy, with recent slowdowns in government spending impacting overall growth [15][16] - Mid-market India is performing well, with signs of recovery in consumption, particularly in urban areas, despite some softness in rural regions [17][18] Group 5: Credit Growth and Risk - Current credit growth in India is around 10%, matching nominal GDP growth, which is lower than historical ratios, indicating a conservative lending environment [22] - Lenders have become overly cautious following a credit risk jolt, leading to a stark decline in growth in unsecured credit and personal loans [20][21] Group 6: Foreign Investment and Competitive Landscape - Large foreign banks are increasingly interested in the Indian financial services sector, which is seen as a source of long-term capital needed for economic growth [23][24] - The consolidation of public sector banks has reduced the number of banks in India, leading to decreased competitive intensity in the financial services industry [29][30]

Policy Stance - Chinese policy makers are not yet panicking despite slowing credit growth [1]

Market Trends - Australian home loans surged beyond expectations to a record high in Q3 [1] - Easier monetary policy has reignited credit growth and property demand [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The surge in home loans gives the Reserve Bank another reason to stay on the sidelines [1]

Core Insights - The weighted average cost of fresh rupee term deposits has increased for the first time in six months, indicating a potential bottoming out of deposit rates and tighter liquidity as credit growth picks up [1][11] - The average rate on fresh term deposits rose to 5.60% in September 2025 from 5.56% in August, marking the first increase since March [2][11] - Analysts suggest that deposit rates are unlikely to decrease significantly from this point due to rising credit growth and competition among banks for funds [10][12] Deposit Rates and Trends - The increase in the weighted average cost of fresh term deposits by four basis points suggests that bank deposit rates may be at their lowest point in the current cycle [1][11] - Fresh term deposits have decreased from a peak of 6.65% in March, influenced by a 100 basis points repo cut by the RBI this year [6][11] - The average outstanding rupee term deposit rate fell slightly to 6.82% in September 2025 from 6.87% in August [9][12] Credit Demand and Competition - An increase in credit demand is contributing to heightened competition among banks for funds, as credit growth is improving following GST rate cuts [7][8][11] - Bankers noted that there has been an uptick in bulk deposit rates recently, which may have contributed to the rise in average term deposit rates [8][11] - Bank margins are recovering after a decline earlier in the fiscal year, with some banks already reporting improvements [9][12]

Core Insights - Vietnam is experiencing substantial credit growth driven by supportive, low-interest-rate policies from the central bank, which is expected to significantly boost the digital asset sector [1][2][3] Credit Growth and Economic Policy - The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has raised the credit limit for commercial banks and directed them to reduce lending rates to stimulate the economy and meet GDP expansion goals [2][3] - The SBV anticipates credit growth of 19% to 20% this year, which is expected to increase liquidity in riskier assets, including digital assets [3] Digital Assets Market - Vietnam ranks among the fastest-growing digital assets hubs globally, with a significant portion of the population engaged in crypto trading and ownership [4] - The government has established a legal framework to support the digital asset industry, including the approval of the Law on Digital Technology Industry, recognizing digital assets as property [5] - A five-year pilot program has been launched to create a regulated digital asset market, driven by high crypto adoption among the young, tech-savvy population [6]

Credit Market - Goldman Sachs 的总裁 John Waldron 表示，过去十年信贷增长出现爆炸式增长 [1] - 如果情况恶化，其影响将不堪设想 [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Banking Sector - **Date**: September 2025 Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Total Social Financing (TSF) and Loan Growth**: - New TSF in September 2025 was Rmb 3.5 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of Rmb -0.2 trillion compared to Rmb 3.8 trillion in September 2024, indicating a continued weakening trend observed since August [1][2] - New loans in September 2025 amounted to Rmb 1.3 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of Rmb -0.3 trillion [2] 2. **Retail and Corporate Loan Dynamics**: - Net new retail loans were Rmb 0.4 trillion, down Rmb -0.1 trillion year-on-year, primarily affected by a decline in short-term retail loans by -0.8% year-on-year, suggesting weak consumer demand despite subsidy policies [2] - Net new corporate loans were Rmb 1.2 trillion, a decrease of Rmb -0.3 trillion year-on-year, attributed to reduced credit demand due to anti-involution policies [2] 3. **Deposit Trends**: - New deposits totaled Rmb 2.2 trillion, a significant decrease from Rmb 3.7 trillion in September 2024 [3] - Retail deposits increased by Rmb 3 trillion, while deposits from non-bank financial institutions fell by Rmb -1 trillion [3] 4. **Monetary Indicators**: - Growth rates for M1 and M2 were reported at 7.2% and 8.4% respectively, with the M1-M2 gap narrowing by 1.6 percentage points, indicating improved fund activation [3] 5. **Impact on Net Interest Income (NII)**: - The slowdown in bank credit growth in Q3 suggests that net interest income is not expected to rebound rapidly, despite a narrower decline in Net Interest Margin (NIM) [2] 6. **Banking Sector Resilience**: - Banks with strong retail franchises (e.g., China Merchants Bank) or extensive branch networks (e.g., Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China) may have better sustainability in stabilizing NIM due to their ability to maintain deposit growth while benefiting from declining deposit costs [3] Additional Important Insights - The contribution of net new government bond issuance to new TSF declined to 34% from 53% in August, reflecting a shift in financing sources [1] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with consumption demand and corporate credit demand both showing signs of weakness [2][3] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the current state of the Chinese banking sector, highlighting trends in financing, loans, deposits, and the implications for net interest income.