That's a sharp shift. For years, hyperscalers funded growth largely through internal cash flows. Now, AI capex is outpacing that — and the gap is being filled by the bond market.The AI Arms Race Goes LeveragedThe numbers tell the story.This isn't incremental spending. It's a full-blown arms race, with companies racing to build data centers, secure compute, and scale AI capabilities — even if it means leaning on debt.Notably, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) has largely avoided this wave, relying instead on its ...

Beforepay Group Limited (ASX:B4P) CEO Jamie Twiss talked with Proactive about the company’s growth trajectory, AI-driven lending model, and expanding product suite at the ASX Small and Mid-Caps Conference. Beforepay is an Australian fintech focused on delivering responsible financial solutions to consumers underserved by traditional lenders. Twiss explained that the company’s core business issues around 40,000 small loans per week, averaging approximately $420, designed as short-term “tide you over” solut ...

>> FROM NEW YORK CITY FOR OUR VIEWERS WORLDWIDE, I AM SCARLET FU. "BLOOMBERG REAL YIELD" THE ONE-OUR EDITITION AND NOW. THE IRAN WAR UPENDS ENERGY MARKETS, SENDING GLOBAL BOND YIELDS SURGING. INVESTORS RUSHED TO BET ON HIGHER INTEREST RATES AS MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS INCLUDING THE FED TO SIGNAL FRESH CONCERN OF AN INFLATION SHOCK. AND THE VOLATILITY LEAVES BANKS SCRAMBLING TO SET REALISTIC PRICES ON BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF BUY OUT DEBT. WE BEGIN WITH THE BIG ISSUE, AND ECONOMY CLOUDED BY THE FOG OF WAR. >> JUST ...

Core Insights - CION Investment Corp. enters 2026 with improved catalysts and constraints compared to the previous year, as merger-and-acquisition confidence rises and macro visibility stabilizes after tariff-related uncertainties [1][10] Group 1: Origination and Portfolio - CION's origination outlook is optimistic due to a recovering transaction environment, with market sentiment improving and M&A activity accelerating, expanding the direct lending opportunity set [3] - As of December 31, 2025, CION held a diversified portfolio valued at $1.70 billion across 89 companies and 22 industries, primarily focused on first-lien senior secured exposure, which supports steady earnings and allows for portfolio rotation into new opportunities [4] - CION generated $255 million in new investment commitments in 2025, with expectations for continued improvement as lending conditions strengthen [5] Group 2: Financial Structure and Distribution - CION plans to shift to monthly payouts in early 2026 while maintaining a base distribution of 36 cents per share in Q4 2025, which may appeal to income-focused investors [7] - The company ended 2025 with $124 million in cash and short-term investments, plus an additional $100 million available under financing arrangements, providing balance sheet flexibility to manage distributions and fund selective originations [8] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Risks - CION faces rising credit risks as non-accruals increased in 2025, and competition in the private credit market has intensified, leading to tighter pricing [2][11] - The company operates primarily in the U.S. due to regulatory constraints, which may limit its ability to expand quickly despite improving deal flow [10] - CION's liabilities are largely unsecured, with a debt mix of approximately 65% unsecured and 35% senior secured, and leverage at 1.44X net debt-to-equity, indicating a disciplined approach to funding costs and capital access [12] Group 4: Market Performance - CION currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), reflecting a mixed near-term setup due to the balance of improving origination drivers against credit risk and competition [13][14] - The stock has underperformed, with shares down 38.4% over the past year, compared to a 23.2% decline in the industry, while peers Ares Capital and Main Street Capital saw smaller declines of 15.3% and 4.3%, respectively [15]

RT The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)The software sector is facing a massive debt wall:~$40 billion in software and services debt matures in 2028, the largest single-year concentration.The vast majority of this is rated B- or lower, deep in junk territory, with no investment-grade debt in the mix.In total, ~$100 billion in software debt matures from 2026 to 2029, with an additional ~$70 billion beyond 2030.Meanwhile, AI disruption is increasing credit risk for software borrowers, the exact companies that ...

Oil Market - Crude oil prices are rising despite the IEA's decision to release 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles, with the IEA noting that the war against Iran is disrupting 7.5% of global oil supply and is expected to cut global oil supply by 8 million barrels per day this month [1][3] - WTI crude oil prices increased by more than 9% after Iraq suspended oil terminal activity due to an attack by Iran on two tankers, and Oman temporarily evacuated a key oil export hub [4] - Fertilizer stocks are climbing due to supply disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with CF Industries Holdings up more than 10% [18] Banking and Credit - Credit concerns are impacting bank stocks and asset managers as Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater LLC capped withdrawals from their private credit funds amid high investor demand [2][17] - Morgan Stanley and KKR are down more than 4%, while Goldman Sachs is down more than 3% [17] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index is down 1.22%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1.32%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down 1.46% [5] - Airline and cruise line stocks are falling due to rising crude oil prices, with Carnival and Royal Caribbean down more than 6% [15] - Chip stocks are also declining, with major companies like Lam Research and Micron Technology down more than 4% [16] Economic Indicators - US weekly initial unemployment claims fell by 1,000 to 213,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expected [7] - January housing starts unexpectedly rose by 7.2% month-over-month to an 11-month high of 1.487 million, while building permits fell by 5.4% month-over-month to a 5-month low of 1.376 million [8] Earnings Reports - Over 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, with 74% beating expectations and an expected earnings growth of 8.4% for Q4 [9] - G-III Apparel Group is down more than 12% after reporting Q4 net sales of $771.5 million, below the consensus of $791.8 million [19] - UiPath is down more than 5% after reporting Q4 subscription revenue of $251.2 million, below the consensus of $252.1 million [20]

Bread Financial Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Bread Financial is undergoing a multi-year transformation to become a pure-play financial services company, focusing on consumer finance, credit cards, and direct-to-consumer deposits, which now account for nearly 50% of overall funding [4][5] Economic and Consumer Insights - The overall state of the consumer has been resilient despite challenges such as high food prices and inflation, with improved credit metrics observed [8][9] - Inflation concerns have moderated, and job markets remain stable, although there are signs of softening [12][14] - Oil prices are a significant concern, with potential inflationary pressures if prices rise significantly [13][17] - Consumers are adapting to inflation by making choices such as cooking at home more often and reducing discretionary spending [16][18] Credit Trends - Year-to-date spending has shown strong growth, with a notable improvement in credit metrics, including a 90 basis point reduction in the loss rate to 7.7% [19][23] - The company anticipates being at the lower end of its guidance for the year, targeting a loss rate of 7.2%-7.4% [24][30] - New vintages of credit are expected to contribute positively to growth, with a focus on maintaining a strong credit risk mix [31][95] Tax Refund Impact - The upcoming tax refund season is expected to influence consumer spending behavior, potentially aiding in debt repayment and improving delinquency rates [28][33] Consumer Segmentation - Bread Financial targets middle-income consumers, who have shown resilience and effective budget management during inflationary periods [42][44] - The company is cautious about potential job losses affecting this demographic, particularly in white-collar sectors [45][49] AI and Technology Integration - The company is leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency, with over 200 machine learning models deployed to improve credit assessment and customer service [75][76] - AI is seen as a complement to human work, increasing productivity rather than replacing jobs [67][68] Growth Strategy - Bread Financial is optimistic about growth, expecting to exceed low single-digit growth targets due to improved credit metrics and new partnerships [91][95] - The company has signed new partnerships, including a co-brand partnership with Ford Motor Company, which will contribute to future growth [95][98] Capital Management - The company has improved its capital stack and is in a strong position to return capital to shareholders, with a $600 million repurchase authorization announced [108][109] - Future capital optimization may involve additional preferred stock issuance to enhance financial flexibility [109] Regulatory Environment - The company expressed concerns about proposed credit card APR caps, indicating that such measures could significantly restrict credit availability and harm the economy [102][103] Conclusion - Bread Financial has made significant strides in transforming its business model, improving credit metrics, and positioning itself for future growth while navigating economic challenges and regulatory scrutiny [110][111]

🚨 INSIGHT: $71.5T JPMorgan has marked down some private-credit loans to software firms as credit risks grow, per FT. https://t.co/O8YKDdHsrE ...

Companies are rushing to sell bonds in Europe as gauges of credit risk fell on indications from US President Donald Trump that the war in Iran will end soon https://t.co/NYseZaTaZ5 ...

MIS: Agency of Choice rated $6.6T1 in 2025 FY25 REVENUE FY25 ISSUANCE2 1 9% 4% 8% 9% YoY Change Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference March 3rd, 2026 Michael West, President of Moody's Investors Service FY25 ADJUSTED OPERATING MARGIN 350 bps 13% 7% 1. MIS Other revenue was approximately $34 million and $35 million for the full years ended December 31, 2024, and December 31, 2025, respectively. 2. MIS rated issuance, excludes sovereign debt issuance. Issuance figures are subject to amendment given ...