Cyclical Theme

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Investors should have exposure to both secular and cyclical themes in markets, says Mona Mahajan
Youtube· 2025-10-08 11:11
Market Overview - Stock index futures are steady, slightly above the flat line after modest losses in the S&P 500 [1] - The market has navigated through traditionally weak months of August and September, supported by the AI theme and a weaker job market [2] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates due to soft labor indicators, which may support cyclical parts of the market over the next 12 months [4][7] - Earnings growth for the third quarter is projected at 8% year-on-year, with full-year growth expected to be in double digits, primarily driven by technology and AI sectors [5] Investment Themes - There is a unique investment environment characterized by both secular themes of AI and technology and cyclical themes [4] - Large-cap and mid-cap stocks are favored, with large caps reflecting AI technology and mid-caps indicating cyclical expansion [8] AI Market Sentiment - The debate exists regarding whether the current AI trend resembles a dangerous bubble or a more stable growth phase [9][10] - The AI theme is believed to have a long runway, starting with data center infrastructure and semiconductors, and expanding into other sectors benefiting from AI productivity gains [11] Gold as an Investment - Gold is gaining favor as a diversifier in portfolios, driven by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar [12][13] - Exposure to gold may be achieved through gold mining stocks, particularly in regions like Canada, which has a significant gold mining sector [14]
2025年6月基金投顾投端跟踪报告:主动权益仓位提升,红利策略和周期主题基金受青睐
Ping An Securities· 2025-07-10 03:43
Group 1 - The report indicates an increase in active equity positions, with a preference for dividend strategies and cyclical theme funds [4][10][27] - As of the end of June 2025, there are 446 fund advisory combinations on the Tian Tian Fund APP, an increase of 5 from the previous month, with a notable dominance of equity-debt central combinations [10][11] - The performance of the equity-debt central combinations shows that the aggressive type outperformed similar FOF products over the past year, while balanced and conservative types underperformed [16][19] Group 2 - The report highlights that the active equity funds favored by advisory combinations include cyclical themes, dividend strategies, growth styles, value themes, and technology themes [41][46] - The QDII funds that received significant allocations include the Huaxia Hang Seng Technology ETF and the Southern Nasdaq 100 A [47][52] - The report notes that the most favored passive equity funds include those focused on low volatility dividend strategies and Hong Kong banking sectors [53][54] Group 3 - The report tracks the changes in fund positions, indicating that conservative combinations reduced mixed funds while increasing index funds, and aggressive combinations reduced passive equity funds while increasing active equity funds [34][40] - The report also details the top ten active equity funds favored by advisory combinations, with a focus on value style and cyclical themes [43][46] - The report provides insights into the performance of thematic and regional advisory combinations, noting that the medical and renewable energy sectors outperformed their benchmarks [25][27][31]