1．中央经济工作会议：稳中求进、提质增效 【 摘要 】华泰证券何康称，紧缩货币环境改善叠加市场预期升温，"春季躁动"可能在12月中下旬 提前启动。中金公司固收团队称，11月金融数据偏弱，货币政策宽松预期升温增强债券配置吸引 力，短端确定性机会相对更大。 一、焦点锐评 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚 持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提 升宏观经济治理效能。强调要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模 和支出总量，重视解决地方财政困难。 【解读】中信证券明明指出，会议对宏观经济的定调较去年更加积极，在此背景下明年政策重心 也更加侧重提质增效，财政政策维持必要强度，货币政策灵活高效与之配合。对于债市而言，基 于会议对货币政策降准降息以及对财政扩张相对温和的表态，有望给当前的市场情绪带来一定提 振。 二、权益市场 1.华泰证券：春季躁动或提前启动 华泰证券何康等称，紧缩货币环境改善叠加市场预期升温，"春季躁动"可能在12月中下旬提前启 动。建议注重成长与周期的均衡配置，大金融与高性价比消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy has led to an upward turning point in the PPI year-on-year growth rate, indicating that the worst phase of the industry supply-demand structure has passed, which is expected to improve corporate profitability and market risk appetite [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In August, the PPI turned from a month-on-month decline of 0.2% to flat, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, narrowing the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [3]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of expansion [3]. Group 2: Equity Market Insights - CITIC Securities noted that under the trend of "anti-involution," the attractiveness of RMB assets continues to rise, with the manufacturing sector expected to convert its share advantage into pricing power and subsequently into long-term profit recovery [5]. - Morgan Stanley indicated that A-shares are likely to continue outperforming offshore markets due to improved liquidity and a shift of funds from the bond market and savings into equities, alongside expectations of policy easing [6]. - Guohai Securities highlighted that small-cap and growth styles are likely to benefit more from the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan," with small-cap indices averaging an 8.6% increase and growth styles averaging a 7.0% increase in the month following the release of the plan [7]. Group 3: Industry Research - Kaiyuan Securities suggested that the gaming industry is transitioning from short-term "one-hit" products to long-cycle projects, with significant long-term growth potential as consumer trends shift towards emotional consumption [12]. - Penghua Fund expressed optimism about AI and robotics, predicting that leading companies in these sectors will emerge as the market seeks new growth drivers, with a potential trillion-dollar market opportunity [13]. - Western Li De Fund emphasized three investment opportunities: AI hardware and applications, sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy such as new energy and aquaculture, and consumer sectors expected to recover due to domestic stimulus policies [14].

Group 1 - The report indicates an increase in active equity positions, with a preference for dividend strategies and cyclical theme funds [4][10][27] - As of the end of June 2025, there are 446 fund advisory combinations on the Tian Tian Fund APP, an increase of 5 from the previous month, with a notable dominance of equity-debt central combinations [10][11] - The performance of the equity-debt central combinations shows that the aggressive type outperformed similar FOF products over the past year, while balanced and conservative types underperformed [16][19] Group 2 - The report highlights that the active equity funds favored by advisory combinations include cyclical themes, dividend strategies, growth styles, value themes, and technology themes [41][46] - The QDII funds that received significant allocations include the Huaxia Hang Seng Technology ETF and the Southern Nasdaq 100 A [47][52] - The report notes that the most favored passive equity funds include those focused on low volatility dividend strategies and Hong Kong banking sectors [53][54] Group 3 - The report tracks the changes in fund positions, indicating that conservative combinations reduced mixed funds while increasing index funds, and aggressive combinations reduced passive equity funds while increasing active equity funds [34][40] - The report also details the top ten active equity funds favored by advisory combinations, with a focus on value style and cyclical themes [43][46] - The report provides insights into the performance of thematic and regional advisory combinations, noting that the medical and renewable energy sectors outperformed their benchmarks [25][27][31]