Group 1 - The core factors driving the upward shift in interest rates are a slow bull market in stocks and the recovery of inflation year-on-year, with initial focus being more on the stock market than inflation [1] - The bond market is currently experiencing a divergence regarding the internal economic recovery, with geopolitical factors being the most critical short-term variable, and the bond market's response is largely influenced by stock market trends [2] - The correlation between stocks and bonds arises from a unified pricing model, where both are viewed as discounted assets, leading to different reactions based on whether earnings expectations or discount rates dominate [2] Group 2 - In the long term, stock market volatility is beneficial for the bond market, but short-term geopolitical factors remain the main pricing driver globally, making it difficult for the bond market to remain insulated from overall sentiment fluctuations [3] - The concentration of borrowing in long-term bonds has increased, with a notable rise to 49.7% for certain bonds, indicating limited adjustment space in the short term [3] - The probability of a reserve requirement cut is increasing, with short-term bonds being a safer direction, as the market may respond to external volatility by stabilizing sentiment through policy adjustments [3] Group 3 - For long-term bonds, there is no need for excessive concern despite short-term defensiveness, as inflation recovery is certain, but optimistic expectations for economic performance are constrained by fiscal measures [4] - The overall upward movement of long-term bond yields may be limited after short-term adjustments, with expectations for a more favorable bond market performance in the latter half of 2026 [4]