科技七巨头全军失守，这并非单个公司的错，它更像是一只老鼠被猫惊到，市场在寻找下一个"安全港"，结果金银上演了逃命的逆袭，现货黄金突破5220美 元/盎司，白银大涨4%，这是资金的本能，股票下跌，贵金属上位——避险逻辑再简单却又复杂到让人无所适从； 中概股也没有幸免，世纪互联跌超7%，爱奇艺大跌5%，阿里巴巴跌超2%，这些数字告诉我们一件事，中国概念股在海外市场的脆弱性依然存在，宏观流动 性、监管预期、估值修正交织，任何一根导火索都可能引发连锁反应； 对中国投资者而言，这样的美股暴跌提醒了两点，一是海外市场的风险并非遥远的新闻，它会在你我账户上留下痕迹，二是资产配置不能只看过去的溢价收 益，要看承受风险的能力和时间窗口，换句话说，别拿短期的高收益去冒长期的风险； | 贵金属 △ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | 5226.630 | 91.800 | 5241.1 | | +45.530 +0.88% | +3.526 +3.99% | +46.9 +0.90% | | COMEX白银 | SHFE更全 | SHFE自银 | | 91.9 ...

根据国际清算银行数据，今年1月日元实际有效汇率指数降至67.73，创1973年以来最低。该指数反映日 元对一篮子主要货币综合强弱，其下跌直接导致日元购买海外商品的实际购买力下降。 面对物价上涨压力，日本央行正推进货币政策正常化。过去两年，日本央行将利率从负0.1%上调至 0.75%，计划继续加息，当前政策利率已达30年来最高，市场预期利率或升至1.5%至1.75%区间。加息 旨在应对通胀、退出长期超宽松货币政策，目前日本通胀已连续多时超过央行2%目标，输入性通胀压 力进一步增加政策调整必要性。 加息也带来新挑战。瑞穗研究与技术公司估算，政策利率单次上调0.25个百分点，背负房贷等债务的家 庭每年将额外增加约1.8万日元还款负担；非金融保险业企业营业利润平均下降0.9%。日本国内研究认 为，加息过快可能加剧中小企业经营困难，影响地方银行资产负债表。 宏观层面，日元购买力下降直接影响日本民生。能源、粮食等进口商品涨价推高生活成本，工资增长未 能抵消物价涨幅。日本厚生劳动省数据显示，2025年日本人均实际工资较上年减少1.3%，连续四年下 滑。这一状况削弱居民消费信心，部分民众选择消费降级或增加储蓄。 日元实际有效 ...

在低基数、AI相关行业需求延续的背景下，PPI可能在二季度个别月份转正，但持续性取决于房地产投资能否见底企稳。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 2026年的第一份物价数据报告出炉，1月CPI同比因春节错位下滑0.6个百分点至0.2%，但在输入性通胀的带动下，PPI同比上行0.5个百分点至-1.4%。以此 估算，1月GDP平减指数同比在-0.4%左右。 对于1月物价，我们认为有三个方面值得关注： 第一，物价数据口径修正的影响较小。 2026年物价数据迎来了五年一次的基期轮换，此次基期轮换对CPI和PPI各月同比指数的影响平均约为0.06和0.08个百分点，总体较小。 从类别上看，CPI在总类别不变的情况下（8大类、268基本分类），通过删减、合并等方式增加了一部分与新消费相关的商品价格如医疗美容服务、车用 电力、互联网医疗服务等等。同时，新增了新增计算出行服务价格指数数据。 从CPI权重上看，本轮基期CPI各分类权数总体变动不大。2025年食品烟酒及在外餐饮、衣着、居住、生活用品及服务、交通通信、教育文化娱乐、医疗 保健、其他用品及服务八个大类的权数分别为29.5%、5.4%、22.1%、5.5%、14.3% ...

Core Viewpoint - The PPI may turn positive in certain months of Q2 2026 due to low base effects and sustained demand in AI-related industries, but its sustainability depends on whether real estate investment stabilizes [2][17]. Group 1: Price Data Overview - In January 2026, the CPI decreased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 0.2%, while the PPI increased by 0.5 percentage points to -1.4% due to input inflation [4]. - The impact of the price data revision is minimal, with the average effect on CPI and PPI year-on-year indices being approximately 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points, respectively [5]. - The weight distribution of CPI categories remains largely unchanged, with food, clothing, and housing accounting for significant portions of the index [5]. Group 2: Industry Contributions to PPI - The weight of midstream industries like electrical machinery and electronic equipment manufacturing, as well as non-ferrous metals, has steadily increased, while the share of black-related and downstream industries has slightly decreased [6]. - Gold prices have significantly supported CPI, contributing 0.3 percentage points, while AI-related investments have driven PPI up by 0.9 percentage points [8]. - In January, the PPI for non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries rose by 22.7% and 17.1% year-on-year, respectively, contributing 1.1 percentage points to the PPI increase [8]. Group 3: Future PPI Trends - The PPI is expected to turn positive in Q2 2026, with tail effects contributing to this change, potentially moving from -1.5 percentage points at the beginning of the year to around +0.4 percentage points by July [13]. - If the PPI's month-on-month average stabilizes above 0%, it could lead to a positive year-on-year PPI by June, with a potential increase of around 1% [16]. - The sustainability of price increases will depend on downstream demand and the stabilization of real estate investments, which have been a drag on PPI due to declining property investments [17].

报告导读： 2026 年 1 月 CPI 同比回落至 0.2% ， PPI 同比回升至 -1.4% ，春节错月 和输入性通胀放大了物价波动。 2026 年 2 月 11 日，国家统计局发布 2026 年 1 月物价数据， CPI 同比回落至 0.2% ， PPI 同比回升至 -1.4% ，春节错月和输入性通胀放大了物价波 动。 本轮 CPI 基期轮换增强了对新经济、新业态消费的覆盖，服务类权重提升。 我国每 5 年会进行一次基期轮换。经测算，本次基期轮换对 CPI 和 PPI 各月同 比指数的影响平均约为 0.06 和 0.08 个百分点，总体较小。 与上一周期相比， CPI 中服务权数有所上升，消费品权数有所下降。一定程度上，这也反映了 我们居民正在从商品主导的消费走向服务主导，从"拥有性消费"向"使用型、体验型消费"转移的趋势。 1 月 CPI 同比回落至 0.2% ，主要受春节错位影响。剔除春节影响， 1 月 CPI 环比涨幅也弱于可比历史同期均值，食品价格拖累是主要原因。核心 CPI 环 比上涨 0.3% ，略高于历史同期均值。结构上看，金价上涨及政策补贴支持的耐用品价格仍是核心通胀的主要支撑，而服务 ...

[Table_Report] 相关报告 2026 年 1 月物价数据点评 本报告导读： 2026 年 1 月 CPI 同比回落至 0.2%，PPI 同比回升至-1.4%，春节错月和输入性通 胀放大了物价波动。 黄金大跌：后续如何看 2026.02.02 非税高基数扰动：狭义收入回落 2026.01.31 结构性宽松继续 2026.01.15 M2 增速反弹：哪些驱动力 2026.01.15 美国通胀：延续温和 2026.01.14 PPI 修复继续：输入性影响增加 [Table_Authors] 应镓娴(分析师) 投资要点： | | 021-23185645 | | --- | --- | | | yingjiaxian@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040060 | | | 贺媛(分析师) | | | 021-23185639 | | | heyuan3@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040129 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | 021-2321982 ...

Group 1 - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Japan Innovation Party secured a majority in the recent House of Representatives election, with the LDP winning 316 seats and the Japan Innovation Party 36 seats, indicating continued governance stability for Japan [1] - The election was marked by a record short interval of 16 days from the dissolution of the House to the voting, the shortest since World War II, aimed at consolidating power for the ruling party to facilitate policy implementation [1] - Japan's GDP growth is projected at approximately 1.1% for the year 2025, suggesting a sustained low growth trend, with expectations for the government to maintain a moderately expansionary fiscal policy to support economic growth in the short term [1] Group 2 - Japan is gradually exiting its ultra-loose monetary policy by 2025, but faces challenges in balancing interest rate hikes with economic stability, as core inflation remains weak at around 1.8% [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 2.4% year-on-year in December 2025, primarily driven by energy and food prices, indicating a reliance on imported inflation [2] - Japan's economy is confronted with long-term structural challenges, including an aging population, declining labor force, and rising social security expenditures, which limit potential growth rates [2] Group 3 - While the LDP's continued governance provides short-term stability and potential policy benefits, long-term structural issues such as labor shortages, aging population, government debt, and sluggish economic growth remain significant constraints [3] - The manufacturing sector shows signs of weakness, with a PMI of 49.8 in December 2025, indicating contraction, while Japan lags behind the US and China in emerging industries like AI and biotechnology [2][3]

Group 1 - The recent Japanese general election results indicate that the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party has secured a majority, with the LDP winning 316 seats and the Japan Innovation Party winning 36 seats, ensuring short-term stability in economic policy [2] - Japan's GDP growth rate is projected to be approximately 1.1% for the year 2025, reflecting a continued low-growth trend, which suggests that the government may maintain a moderately expansionary fiscal policy to support economic growth in the short term [2][4] - The Bank of Japan is expected to gradually exit its ultra-loose monetary policy by 2025, but will face challenges in balancing economic stimulation and preventing excessive depreciation of the yen, as core inflation remains weak at around 1.8% [3] Group 2 - Japan is facing long-term structural challenges, including an aging population, declining labor force, and rising social security expenditures, which are constraining the potential growth rate of the economy [3][4] - The manufacturing sector is showing signs of weakness, with the PMI for December 2025 recorded at 49.8, indicating contraction, while Japan lags behind the US and China in emerging industries such as AI and biotechnology [3] - Although the LDP's continued governance provides short-term stability and potential policy benefits, it does not address the underlying structural issues that hinder long-term economic growth [4]

交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：李轩怡 电 话：13164701108 邮 箱： lixuanyi_qh@chinastock.com.cn 期货从业资格证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：F0018403 能化板块研发报告 2026 年 1 月 30 日 玻碱节后库存承压，价格偏弱运行 第一部分 前言概要 【纯碱】 在去美元化背景下，1 月有色及贵金属加速上涨，断崖式领涨于商品市场。本轮 商品价格普涨更像是随着全球金属价格上涨而出现的输入性通胀，但若上游资源价格 涨价过快，下游涨价能否顺畅传导，还是会进一步缩减需求有待观察，但这部分担忧 的计价预计会延迟到临近春节或节后释放。市场对春季商品普涨行情有一定期待，在 当前估值下对节后累库计价也比较谨慎。但随着春节的临近，库存压力将会愈发突出， 若宏观情绪边际走弱，价格易跌难涨。 1 月纯碱新增产能陆续提负，湖北新都，博源二线新增产能提量，逐步对纯碱供 应形成压力。2 月份预计 2 条浮法玻璃产线放水冷修，光伏玻璃产能或变动不大，重 碱用量预计下滑，春节假期期间部分轻碱下游用户放假，下游需求减少。通胀计价下 商品普涨，但传导上 ...

Group 1 - The global smartphone AMOLED panel shipment is expected to decline to 810 million units in 2026, down from 817 million units in 2025, marking the first drop after three consecutive years of growth [1] - The decline is primarily attributed to memory supply shortages and skyrocketing prices, leading smartphone manufacturers, particularly Chinese brands, to lower their procurement plans for 2026 [1] - AMOLED panel manufacturers have limited room for price reductions, as the price increase of memory components has approached or even exceeded the cost of smartphone display panels [1] Group 2 - The current memory supply tightness and price increases are driven by a surge in demand from AI servers, which prioritize storage capacity for high-margin products, tightening supply for the entire consumer electronics chain [2] - Geopolitical tensions and the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle have led to a weaker dollar, attracting speculative capital into dollar-denominated commodities, further amplifying price elasticity [2] - Many smartphone manufacturers still rely on a cost-oriented product line approach, attempting to pressure upstream suppliers like AMOLED panel manufacturers to control material cost increases, which may face significant resistance in the current cycle [2]