1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical pricing in the second quarter of the stock index has changed from chaos to clarity. The Middle - East situation is becoming more complex, and the war situation will affect the fundamentals of equity assets. It is expected that the US and Iran will go through a process of "war expansion - negotiation and compromise" in the second quarter. A - shares may experience a V - shaped trend in the second quarter. In the short term, the A - share bull market is tested, but in the medium term, the technology industry represented by artificial intelligence is still the main line of the A - share bull market. It is recommended to go long on the IM futures with higher technology content on dips [92] - High oil prices will lead to an increase in global energy and trade costs, and have an impact on China's imports and exports, inflation, and economic growth. The PPI and CPI are expected to rise, and the global economic growth is predicted to decline [21][53][67] - The Chinese government is taking measures to expand domestic demand and promote economic structural adjustment, such as increasing investment in infrastructure and adjusting policies on consumption and investment [79] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 China - Iran and China - Persian Gulf Seven - Country Trade - Iran's direct trade volume with China is small, with a trade surplus of less than $4 billion. After the US sanctions in 2018, the direct trade between China and Iran decreased [5] - China's exports to the eight countries including Iran and the seven Persian - Gulf countries have been increasing in the past five years. In 2025, the total export amount to the eight countries was $169.27 billion, accounting for 4.3%. China's imports from the seven Persian - Gulf countries accounted for 6.1% of the total imports, and the trade deficit turned positive in 2025, reaching $5.7 billion [6][16] - If trade with the seven Persian - Gulf countries is interrupted, China's exports will decrease by 4.3% and imports by 6.1%. China's import dependence on these countries is mainly concentrated in crude oil, natural gas, chemical raw materials, and plastic products, and some products have a share of over 20%. The export of carpets, textiles, motor vehicles, steel products, and electromechanical products may be damaged [25][29] 3.2 Energy and Market Impact - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for China. About 200 - 210 million barrels of crude oil pass through it every day, accounting for about 20% of the world's seaborne oil. The liquefied natural gas transportation accounts for about 20% of the world, and the methanol transportation accounts for about 35% of the world. The closure of the strait will lead to an increase in global energy and trade costs [21] - Crude oil accounts for 18.2% of China's total energy consumption, and the external dependence is about 72%. The crude oil imported from the seven Persian - Gulf countries accounts for about 40% of the total imported crude oil. China's oil reserves can support about 100 days. If the war persists and the strait is blocked, it will impact the economic growth [34] - Before the US - Iran war, the global equity assets were in a bull market. After the war, the global risk assets were under pressure, and the stock markets generally declined. In March, only the energy and mineral sectors rose, while the technology stocks and HALO assets fell significantly [38][46] 3.3 A - share Market Performance - In March, A - shares fell in line with the global stock markets. The rising sectors include energy (coal, power utilities, and new energy), defense (banks, public utilities), and AI infrastructure (communications). The falling sectors are mainly HALO heavy - hitters such as non - ferrous metals, steel, and building materials, concept stocks such as military industry, and technology stocks such as media and computer [49] - At the tertiary industry level, coal chemical industry, lithium batteries, new energy power generation, and optical communications performed well [50] 3.4 Inflation and Economic Growth - The increase in oil prices has led to an unexpected rise in PPI and CPI. In March, the PPI is expected to approach 0 year - on - year, turn positive in the second quarter, and the annual central level will rise to about 0.5%, 1.5% higher than the initial forecast. The CPI is expected to rise to about 1%, 1% higher than the initial forecast [60] - China's exports increased significantly in the first two months, but the impact of the US - Israel - Iran conflict on the global economy will be apparent from the second quarter. The OECD estimated in March that the GDP growth rate in the four quarters of this year will decline by 0.12, 0.23, 0.31, and 0.33 percentage points respectively compared with the February forecast [67] - China's economic growth is more dependent on foreign trade, and domestic demand is weak. The fiscal stimulus in 2026 is limited, and the incremental content is mainly in policy - based financial instruments and special funds for expanding domestic demand [72] 3.5 Policy and Industry Development - The government's work report in 2026 emphasizes building a strong domestic market, with a re - balance between consumption and investment, and an increase in support for fixed - asset investment. The positions of rural revitalization, new urbanization, and improving people's livelihood are advanced [79][80] - The National Development and Reform Commission will invest more than 7 trillion yuan in "six networks" and key areas this year, and the scale of artificial - intelligence - related industries will exceed 10 trillion yuan by the end of the 15th Five - Year Plan. The Ministry of Commerce focuses on service consumption, the central bank focuses on supporting domestic demand, innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises, and the Ministry of Finance provides loan interest subsidies for individuals and enterprises [84] - Although the valuation of technology stocks is still high, their structure is relatively healthy after the profit upward revision and valuation downward revision in the fourth quarter of last year. The non - technology stocks have relatively mild changes in valuation and profit. The policy support for the technology industry is obvious [91]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing deterioration of geopolitical situations in the Middle East is likely to push global oil prices and inflation expectations higher, suppressing global macro liquidity, leading to a transition from reflation trades to stagflation trades. The recommendation is to overweight Chinese equities and oil [1]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Context - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is worsening, with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked, resulting in high oil prices that maintain upward momentum. The key factor for asset pricing will be the duration of the blockade [1][3]. - Central banks in multiple economies are signaling a hawkish stance, shifting monetary policy guidance towards anti-inflation measures, which compresses the space for interest rate cuts and leads to a significant downward adjustment in macro liquidity easing expectations [1]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Chinese stock markets exhibit strong resilience, suggesting an overweight position in A-shares. The current market conditions do not warrant panic selling, as there is potential for a significant bottom and rebound in the Chinese market [1]. - The recommendation to overweight oil is based on the current geopolitical tensions and declining oil inventories in major economies, despite relatively weak global oil demand [3]. Group 3: Bond Market Insights - Inflation expectations are likely to suppress the performance of long-duration bonds. The imbalance between financing demand and credit supply remains a reality, but risk appetite is trending upwards, prompting asset reallocation by households and enterprises [2]. - The U.S. economy is converging marginally, with inflation expectations pressuring long-duration U.S. Treasury bonds. The potential for a gradual decline in U.S. Treasury yields is anticipated due to a more cautious monetary policy stance [2]. Group 4: Commodity Market Dynamics - The transition from reflation trades to stagflation trades may suppress demand for industrial commodities. Recent developments in electric power-related construction equipment and military facility updates have created new demand for industrial metals, but the overall macroeconomic environment is likely to dampen this demand [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The possibility of the end of the US - Iran war has significantly increased, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index, a rebound in A - shares, and a general rise in various assets. The market's risk preference is in a state of shock. For commodities, different sectors have different trends and influencing factors, such as steel prices being affected by cost and demand, and copper prices being affected by macro and fundamental factors [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US intends to propose a one - month cease - fire to discuss a 15 - point agreement with Iran. The possibility of the end of the US - Iran war has significantly increased, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [1][12][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a volume - shrinking rebound due to the easing of the US - Iran situation. If the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz can be restored through negotiation, the stagflation trade may reverse, and equity opportunities will emerge. Currently, due to high uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and add positions on dips [2][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 17.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations. The market has carried out TACO trading, with various assets generally rising. It is necessary to closely monitor the war situation and take a wait - and - see approach [3][19][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Mexico and South Africa have made anti - dumping rulings on Chinese steel products. Steel prices are oscillating. The lack of clear fundamentals and the influence of Trump's statements and the Middle East situation have led to market fluctuations. The short - term price increase is mainly driven by cost, and the upside space is limited [4][22][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The power coal market in Shaanxi is strong. The coking coal spot market has a good trading atmosphere, with prices rising. In the short term, the international oil price and downstream replenishment support the coking coal price, but in the long term, the lack of terminal demand and sufficient supply may suppress the price [27][28][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US and Vietnamese textile and clothing imports and exports have different trends. The domestic textile industry is in good condition, with sufficient orders. However, there are concerns about import yarn, policy tools, planting area, and the macro - economic situation. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short term and may adjust downward from April to May [31][33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of corn in the four northern ports has increased, and the sales progress of the grassroots has recovered. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand has rigid support. The policy provides a bottom - support for the corn price. Corn is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Dazhong Mining plans to invest in a lithium salt project. The lithium export ban in Zimbabwe has not been lifted as expected. The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand for new energy vehicles is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after a correction [39][40][41]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium rebounded slightly. The market follows macro - fluctuations. The supply is relatively rigid, and the demand has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, use options, and pay attention to the opportunity of long platinum and short palladium [41][42][43]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price is oscillating at a low level. The LME inventory and domestic social inventory are decreasing. The terminal consumption is facing the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [44][45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price is oscillating at a low level. The LME inventory and domestic social inventory are decreasing. The zinc price has long - term technical support. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and the volatility to decline, and then pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [46][47]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Atalaya's copper production in the first quarter is slightly lower than planned. The macro - factors are complex and changeable, and the fundamentals show internal - external differentiation. The copper price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage [48][51]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin is at a discount. The domestic warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the spot is at a premium. The supply and demand are both weak, and the tin price is oscillating widely due to the influence of the US - Israel - Iran conflict [52][54]. 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG spot price is stable, with some low - price areas having a supplementary increase. The market is affected by the news of the US - Iran negotiation. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of price fluctuations [55]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses is decreasing. The downstream enterprises maintain rigid procurement, and the supply has a gap. It is recommended to take a bullish - oscillating view [56][57][58]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries is decreasing, and the social inventory is increasing. The asphalt price is affected by the oil price and the geopolitical situation. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [58][59]. 3.2.14 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The US - Iran situation has a impact on the oil price and the container freight rate. The near - month and far - month contracts have different logics. It is recommended to maintain a bullish - oscillating view and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [60][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The external shocks still exist, and the stock index is expected to continue its weak performance in the short - term. Investors are advised to be cautious and control their positions. However, after a significant market decline, the probability of policy support has increased. Attention should be paid to the domestic factors' support for the stock index this week [1]. - The bond market is oscillating under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of monetary policy easing, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks [1]. - Due to the tense Middle East situation and rising market risk - aversion sentiment, copper and aluminum prices are under pressure, and zinc and tin prices are affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector. Nickel prices may fluctuate widely, and stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate strongly. Precious metals and platinum - palladium prices are affected by the Middle East situation and may continue to be volatile [1]. - For industrial silicon, there are factors such as supply - side resumption, weak demand, and inventory reduction. For polycrystalline silicon and lithium carbonate, there are issues related to supply and demand and market sentiment [1]. - In the black metal sector, steel products such as rebar and iron ore are in a state of supply - demand balance or weakness, with prices mainly affected by cost support and inventory pressure. Coke and coking coal are affected by the war situation, and their prices may fluctuate [1]. - In the agricultural product sector, cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium - long term with the recovery of demand and the expectation of reduced planting. Sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations, with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern. Corn, soybean meal, and other products are affected by supply - demand and policy factors [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, most products are affected by the Middle East situation, including oil, fuel oil, asphalt, plastics, and rubber. Some products are facing supply shortages, and others are affected by cost and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: Expected to continue weak in the short - term, with increased probability of policy support after a sharp decline. Focus on domestic factors' support this week [1]. - **Bonds**: Oscillating under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, monetary policy expectations, and profit - taking [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: At risk of decline due to the tense Middle East situation and rising risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - **Aluminum**: Pressured down by the Middle East situation and market sentiment, while alumina may be affected by Guinea's policy but the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [1]. - **Zinc and Tin**: Follow the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector and are advised to wait and see due to the high uncertainty of the Middle East situation [1]. - **Nickel**: May fluctuate widely, affected by the supply situation in Indonesia and macro - sentiment. Short - term operation is recommended, focusing on low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to demand acceptance. Short - term operation and low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Prices rebounded after Trump's remarks, but the Middle East situation is still uncertain, and the market may be disturbed [1]. - **Platinum - Palladium**: May stabilize and stop falling due to Trump's remarks, but the Middle East situation may still cause fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Facing supply - side resumption, weak demand, and inventory reduction [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon and Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by supply - demand and market sentiment factors such as storage demand, power demand, and battery exports [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: In a state of supply - demand balance and inventory reduction, with price driven by cost support. It is treated as an oscillating market [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply - demand is weak in the short - term, and the price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and cost support [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by the war situation, with a possible short - term sharp rise in coking coal, but the risk is high. Attention should be paid to the war development and timely exit from long positions [1]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season. Domestically, the price is expected to rise in the medium - long term with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1]. - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus in the 2025/26 season. Domestically, the supply is loose, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - **Corn**: The price is supported by tight supply of surplus grain in the Northeast and strong downstream starch. Policy - induced callbacks are expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Still at a low historical level, sensitive to positive news. The medium - long - term upward drive depends on planting - season weather. It is recommended to wait for callbacks to arrange long positions in far - month contracts [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [1]. - **Log**: The "strong expectation" logic may be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to oil price uncertainty [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the expectation is strong, and some refineries in Northeast Asia are facing supply shortages [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Affected by the Middle East situation, with concerns about supply interruption and a positive market sentiment [1]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by the cost of crude oil, but the impact is relatively weak among energy products [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The price has risen significantly and may continue to rise due to factors such as raw material shortages, cost support, and inventory reduction expectations [1]. - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the supply - side risk is significant, and the polyester industry chain may face production decline in April [1]. - **Naphtha and Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, there is a shortage of supply, and the production of related devices has decreased [1]. - **Styrene**: Facing supply shortages of ethylene and benzene, and non - integrated producers' profits are seriously inverted [1]. - **Urea**: The upward space is limited by weak domestic demand, and there is support from cost and anti - inversion [1]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the Iranian situation, but the domestic supply is high and the inventory is at a historical high [1]. - **PVC**: The future expectation is optimistic due to capacity reduction and geopolitical factors, but the current market sentiment has cooled [1]. - **LPG**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price is strong, but the demand is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the internal and external markets [1]. - **Shipping (Container Shipping on European Routes)**: Affected by the war situation, the market is excited, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1].

Group 1 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate, leading to upward pressure on global oil prices and inflation expectations, which may suppress global macro liquidity [1][4] - The report suggests an overweight allocation to Chinese equities and oil due to the current market conditions [1][4] - The transition from reflation trading to stagflation trading is noted, with a recommendation to focus on short to medium-term bonds over long-term bonds due to rising inflation expectations [1][4][16] Group 2 - The report highlights the resilience of the Chinese stock market, recommending an overweight position in A-shares, as the market is expected to find a significant bottom [16][18] - The performance of major asset classes is reviewed, with specific attention to the recent declines in various indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index [9][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the ongoing geopolitical developments, particularly the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which could significantly impact asset pricing [15][17] Group 3 - The report outlines a tactical asset allocation strategy, with a focus on equities (45%), bonds (45%), and commodities (10%), reflecting a balanced approach to risk and return [19][20] - The tactical asset allocation model has shown a cumulative excess return of 5.85% relative to the benchmark, indicating effective positioning in the current market environment [21][22] - Specific recommendations include an overweight in oil due to geopolitical tensions and a cautious stance on long-duration bonds amid rising inflation pressures [17][18]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Fuel oil, PTA, Styrene, PE PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping secondary line [1] - Bearish: None - Neutral: Index, Treasury bonds, Non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin etc.), Precious metals and new energy (silver, platinum, palladium, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate), Black metals (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese ore, coking coal, coke), Agricultural products (cotton, sugar, wheat, soybeans, pulp, logs, pork), Energy chemicals (asphalt, natural rubber, BR rubber, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, hydrogen, methanol, LPG) [1] Core Views - The uncertainty of the Middle East conflict persists, leading to a rise in crude oil prices, increased imported inflation pressure, and an impact on global capital market liquidity. Domestic small - and medium - cap stocks are affected. [1] - The index is expected to continue its volatile pattern. With the easing of external inflation pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite, it is expected to consolidate and restart the upward trend. [1] - Treasury bonds fluctuate under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of loose monetary policy, supply pressure brought by fiscal stimulus, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks. [1] - Due to the tense Middle East situation, the prices of non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and some energy and chemical products are under pressure, while some agricultural products and energy - related products show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index**: Expected to continue the volatile pattern. Long - term, consider building long positions using the advantage of stock index futures discount, and control positions. [1] - **Treasury bonds**: Fluctuate under the influence of multiple factors. [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: There is still a risk of price decline due to the tense Middle East situation and increased market risk - aversion. [1] - **Aluminum**: The price is under pressure due to the tense Middle East situation. Pay attention to the supply disruption of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East. [1] - **Alumina**: It has strengthened, but the implementation plan is unclear, and the supply is still in surplus. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - **Zinc, tin**: Follow the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector and decline. Due to the high uncertainty of the Middle East situation, it is recommended to wait and see. [1] - **Nickel**: May fluctuate, affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous sector. Pay attention to the RKAB approval and policy changes in Indonesia and macro - sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see and look for low - buying opportunities after over - decline. [1] - **Stainless steel**: The futures price fluctuates widely. Pay attention to the demand acceptance. It is recommended to wait and see and look for low - buying opportunities. [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Silver, platinum, palladium**: The prices are under pressure due to the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted. [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is a liquidity risk. [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Energy storage demand is strong, but power demand is weak. There are factors such as battery export rush, mine - end disturbances, and strong capital risk - aversion. [1] Black metals - **Rebar**: Entered the de - stocking cycle, with relatively low total inventory pressure. The price is mainly supported by cost and has a certain discount. It is expected to fluctuate. [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong, and it has entered the de - stocking cycle, but the inventory level is high. It is recommended to take a volatile approach, and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions in the spot - futures market. [1] - **Iron ore**: Policy fluctuations cause sharp price changes. It is not recommended to chase long or short. [1] - **Manganese ore**: Short - term supply and demand are weak, but policy support and cost factors are positive. [1] - **Coking coal, coke**: The prices have risen due to the Middle East conflict. The focus is on the development of the geopolitical conflict and whether the positive feedback of long - position funds can be formed. [1] Agricultural products - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season. Domestically, the inventory is high, and the price is expected to rise gradually with the recovery of demand and the expectation of reduced planting. [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus in the 2025/26 season. Domestically, the supply is also abundant. The price is expected to have limited fluctuations, with a pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices. [1] - **Wheat**: The supply of surplus grain in the Northeast is tightening, and the price is supported by replenishment demand. Policy measures may partially relieve supply concerns, and the long - term trend depends on weather and other factors. [1] - **Soybeans**: The concern about the domestic supply gap has been alleviated. Pay attention to international trade policies and the adjustment of soybean planting area in the US. Consider the reverse arbitrage opportunity of M05 - M09. [1] - **Pulp**: The fundamental weakness is difficult to change in the short term. The futures price fluctuates in the range of 5200 - 5400 yuan/ton. [1] - **Logs**: The futures price has dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see due to large price fluctuations. [1] - **Pork**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Bullish due to the tense Middle East situation, concerns about oil and gas supply interruption, and positive market sentiment. [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports is relatively small, but it is affected by the price transmission of crude oil. [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material cost, positive market sentiment, normal climate in the production area, and an expanded spot - futures price difference. [1] - **BR rubber**: The prices of BD and BR have risen significantly and still have upward potential. The inventory may turn to de - stocking. [1] - **PTA**: Bullish due to the strong expectation of crude oil, supply shortage of Northeast Asian refineries, and tight PX supply. [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: The price has risen sharply due to the reduction of raw material supply in domestic refineries. [1] - **Styrene**: Bullish due to the rise in the overseas pure - benzene market, supply disruptions, and strong demand from downstream and traders. [1] - **Hydrogen**: The upside is limited by weak domestic demand, but it is supported by anti - involution and cost factors. [1] - **Methanol**: Affected by the shutdown of Iranian facilities and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the domestic production is high, and the inventory is at a historical high. [1] - **PE PP**: Bullish due to the restricted raw material supply caused by the geopolitical situation, but the fundamentals are weak. [1] - **PVC**: Bullish as the capacity is expected to be cleared, and the ethylene - based method faces raw material shortages. [1] - **LPG**: The price is strong due to the increase in geopolitical premium, but the demand is short - term bearish, and the base - spread is expected to widen. [1] Other - **Shipping secondary line**: Bullish. The price increase is generally stable, but it is affected by the war sentiment. Airlines are expected to raise prices after the off - season in March. [1]

Group 1 - The core factors driving the upward shift in interest rates are a slow bull market in stocks and the recovery of inflation year-on-year, with initial focus being more on the stock market than inflation [1] - The bond market is currently experiencing a divergence regarding the internal economic recovery, with geopolitical factors being the most critical short-term variable, and the bond market's response is largely influenced by stock market trends [2] - The correlation between stocks and bonds arises from a unified pricing model, where both are viewed as discounted assets, leading to different reactions based on whether earnings expectations or discount rates dominate [2] Group 2 - In the long term, stock market volatility is beneficial for the bond market, but short-term geopolitical factors remain the main pricing driver globally, making it difficult for the bond market to remain insulated from overall sentiment fluctuations [3] - The concentration of borrowing in long-term bonds has increased, with a notable rise to 49.7% for certain bonds, indicating limited adjustment space in the short term [3] - The probability of a reserve requirement cut is increasing, with short-term bonds being a safer direction, as the market may respond to external volatility by stabilizing sentiment through policy adjustments [3] Group 3 - For long-term bonds, there is no need for excessive concern despite short-term defensiveness, as inflation recovery is certain, but optimistic expectations for economic performance are constrained by fiscal measures [4] - The overall upward movement of long-term bond yields may be limited after short-term adjustments, with expectations for a more favorable bond market performance in the latter half of 2026 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core of current bond market trading lies in the contrast between loose liquidity and a significant rise in inflation expectations. The bond market shows little volatility, but the curve steepening trend continues. Due to the decline in inter - bank certificate of deposit rates, the yields of medium - and short - term bonds within 10 years may still decline, while the yields of ultra - long - term bonds are more significantly affected by fundamentals and show a weak trend [8]. - Overseas stagflation trading is the current macro - mainline but will not affect domestic monetary policy, as the core lies in the different supply - demand contradictions between domestic and overseas markets. High - frequency real - estate data is not sufficient to change the medium - term data conclusion, and it is too early to change the cyclical conclusion. Looking forward, the probability of a steeper bond market yield curve is still high, and there is insufficient evidence of a bond market bear market [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Logic and Strategy - The decline in certificate of deposit yields continues to support medium - and short - term bonds, and the curve steepening trend persists [6]. - Regarding the money and policy front, after the tax period, the money price is stable with a slight decline, and the LPR quote remains unchanged, meeting market expectations. The certificate of deposit rate continues to decline. The MLF due next Wednesday is 450 billion yuan, and if the central bank maintains a 50 - billion - yuan bond - buying scale and a 1 - trillion - yuan monthly medium - and long - term liquidity injection, the MLF needs to be renewed by 1.7 trillion yuan. There is a large gap, and the central bank may use other tools such as future reserve requirement ratio cuts. The central bank's research on canceling the 5% lower limit of the deposit reserve ratio lacks market - recognized authenticity, but the market logic has some merit. Currently, the certificate of deposit rate is likely to continue approaching 1.5%. The central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio in the second quarter, and the pace of interest rate cuts may be postponed [8][32]. - On the fundamental front, domestic economic indicators in January - February showed a significant recovery, except for the real - estate sector. The industrial sector played a key role in production, and new - quality productivity accelerated. The three - horse - carriage of demand worked together, and both domestic and external demand improved. The CPI rose by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose by 1.3%, indicating a mild recovery in demand and a further alleviation of deflationary pressure. However, the macro - data from January - February was significantly affected by the Spring Festival, and the data in March may be negatively affected. Overseas, during the "super week" of global central banks from March 16 - 22, 2026, major central banks' policy stances turned hawkish or cautious, and the previously expected easing cycle was postponed or reversed. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts in major developed economies has basically disappeared, replaced by concerns about possible interest rate hikes [8][18]. 3.2 Macro Main Asset Fund Flow Changes - Affected by inflation, the yields of Chinese and US bonds have both increased, the US dollar has rebounded with fluctuations, and the US and Chinese stock markets have significantly declined. The stagflation expectation continues to prevail. The China Securities Commodity Index has weakened with severe differentiation, precious metals and non - ferrous metals have weakened significantly, and crude - oil - related commodities have continued to rise sharply [12]. 3.3 Recent Macro Data Analysis and Review - Domestic data from January - February showed a comprehensive recovery in most economic indicators except for real - estate. However, the data was affected by the Spring Festival, and the data in March may be under pressure. Overseas, major central banks' policy stances turned hawkish or cautious during the "super week" due to the energy price shock caused by the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict [8][18]. - In February, domestic inflation showed that the CPI increase expanded, and the PPI decline narrowed, both exceeding expectations. Foreign trade exports increased significantly, mainly driven by the global AI investment boom in the semiconductor industry chain. Financial data showed that the growth rate of social financing was flat, and government bonds were the key support for social financing growth. Overseas, in February, the US CPI and core CPI met expectations and were the same as the previous values, with structural differences in the sub - categories of the CPI [24]. - In February, the domestic manufacturing PMI declined unexpectedly, mainly due to the impact of the extended Spring Festival holiday. Overseas, the unexpectedly weak February non - farm payrolls report in the US and the tense Middle - East situation have created a stagflation combination, putting the Fed in a difficult policy dilemma. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm has changed [25]. 3.4 Fundamentals Analysis and Bond Futures and Spot Indicator Monitoring - The money price is stable with a slight decline after the tax period, the LPR quote remains unchanged, and the certificate of deposit rate continues to decline. The MLF due next Wednesday is 450 billion yuan, and there is a large gap in the renewal amount. The central bank may use other tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts. The central bank's meeting in March emphasized maintaining liquidity and the stability of financial markets, and the necessity of interest rate cuts has decreased. The central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio in the second quarter, and the interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed [8][32]. - The yields of Chinese and US bonds, the US dollar index, and the RMB exchange rate have shown certain trends. The bond market curve shows a steepening trend, and the yields of medium - and short - term bonds within 10 years may decline [12][36]. 3.5 Equity Broad - Based Index Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring - The ROE of listed companies and macro - economic data show certain relationships. The EPS and PE of major broad - based indexes have different trends, reflecting the performance and valuation of the equity market [90][91]. - The trading volume, turnover rate, and margin trading balance of the equity market show the market's liquidity and activity. The style of the equity index and the basis rate of stock index futures also reflect the market's characteristics [110][129]. 3.6 Medium - Term Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring of the Macroeconomy - The net financing amounts of government bonds, local bonds, and policy - bank bonds, as well as the fiscal revenue and expenditure, show the government's financing and fiscal situation. The relationship between social financing, M2, and M1 reflects the money supply and demand in the market [137][156]. - The real - estate market data, including land transactions, housing sales, and prices, show the current situation and trends of the real - estate market. The inflation data, including the CPI, PPI, and price indexes of various commodities, reflect the inflation situation [164][186]. - The industrial production and inventory data, including production capacity utilization, output, and inventory levels, show the operation of the industrial sector. The import and export data, BCI index, and power generation data reflect the economic situation and business confidence [207][240]. 3.7 Long - Wave Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring of the Macroeconomy No relevant content provided. 3.8 Appendix - The comparison of central meetings shows the economic goals, policy tones, and key points of different periods, reflecting the government's economic decision - making and policy orientation [326][327][328]. - The comparison of public - offering fund sales regulations shows the changes in fees such as subscription fees, redemption fees, and sales service fees for different types of funds, which will affect the investment cost and return of investors [332]. - The event of the US tariff policy change shows the development process, impact, and future prospects of the US - China trade war, which will have an impact on the global economic and trade situation [333][334][335]. - The comparison of government work report indicators shows the economic goals, fiscal and monetary policies, and development priorities of different years, reflecting the government's economic development strategy [340].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global capital market liquidity continues to be impacted, and domestic small and medium - cap stocks are dragged down. The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and may restart the upward pattern in the future with the easing of external inflation pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite [1]. - Multiple factors such as housing demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals are under pressure, while the price of alumina may fluctuate due to the consideration of export quotas in Guinea. Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and their prices are under pressure. Platinum and palladium prices are also under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side resumes production, but demand is weak and inventory is being depleted. For lithium carbonate, there are factors such as strong energy storage demand, weak power demand, and strong capital risk - aversion sentiment, and the price is in shock [1]. - For black metals, most varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term. Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - For energy and chemical futures, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected, and their prices show different trends [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions in the medium and long term by combining the discount advantage of stock index futures and control positions [1]. - Treasury bonds oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may decline, aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices may fluctuate. Zinc and tin prices are affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and platinum and palladium prices are under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Industrial silicon has issues of supply - side resumption and weak demand; lithium carbonate has multiple influencing factors and is in shock [1]. Black Metals - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, glass, and other varieties are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by geopolitical factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical changes [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn futures are expected to continue the high - level shock pattern, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [1]. - It is recommended to wait for callbacks to layout long positions in the far - month contracts of soybean meal [1]. - Pulp futures are in a weak fundamental situation and are in shock in a certain price range [1]. - Log futures have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, and their prices show different trends [1]. - Urea has limited upward space and cost - side support; methanol has issues of Iranian imports and high domestic inventory [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC are affected by geopolitical factors, and PVC has a relatively optimistic future expectation [1]. - Caustic soda has a weak fundamental situation, and the market sentiment has cooled [1]. - LPG has a complex situation with factors such as price premiums, demand, and inventory, and there is a differentiation between internal and external markets [1]. - For container shipping on the European line, price increases are generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is based on the Iran geopolitical conflict, comprehensively analyzing its impact on major domestic futures varieties, covering dimensions such as liquidity risk, market expectations, and volatility changes [3]. - The latest development shows that due to frequent ship - attack incidents, crude oil prices have soared to around $100, intensifying the stagflation trade. Overseas markets saw synchronous declines in base metals and precious metals on Friday night, with base metals more sensitive to demand experiencing larger drops [3]. - Looking ahead, the market is gradually aware that the Strait of Hormuz may be blocked for a long - term, and the crude oil supply gap may exceed 10 million barrels per day, potentially creating the largest gap in over 40 years. In the short - term, crude oil prices may remain strong, and chemicals are generally considered for buying on dips given the reduced load of domestic refineries. For non - ferrous metals, aluminum, which is greatly affected by geopolitical conflicts, should be focused on. Some varieties in the agricultural and black sectors are more affected by the energy attribute, so changes in oil prices should be monitored [3]. Group 2: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The market realizes that the Strait of Hormuz may be blocked long - term, and the crude oil supply gap may exceed 10 million barrels per day, potentially the largest in over 40 years. The multi - empty intensity rating is 3, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 3 [7]. Asphalt - The disk profit is too low, and supply is continuously shrinking. Energy and chemical bears use BU to cover short positions and drive profit repair. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Fuel Oil - Although the price in the Singapore market dropped on Friday, there is still a spot shortage. The reduction in logistics due to the blockade will continue to materialize, and there is still support for the price. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Despite the price drop in the Singapore market on Friday, due to the transfer of refueling demand, inventory in the Singapore area decreased rapidly. Additionally, there is a probability that domestic refineries will increase the refined oil yield, which will lead to a decline in the low - sulfur supply in coastal areas, benefiting the LU disk. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Methanol - There is still a strong expectation for the spot. It is expected that the price center of methanol will continue to rise before the geopolitical situation eases. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Para - Xylene, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol - All are recommended for buying on dips. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Short - Fiber - The Strait navigation has not been restored, and the reduction in actual logistics may have a long - tail effect. Refineries and PTA plants may face production cuts, still posing a risk of cost increase. Downstream raw material inventory is low. It is recommended to buy on dips and not chase the high. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Bottle Chips - Similar to short - fiber, there is a risk of cost increase. Spot factories have tight shipments, and near - month liquidity is tight. Pay attention to the upward risk and buy on dips. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Polypropylene - Geopolitical risks continue to escalate. Crude oil and propane supplies are reduced due to the shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz, which has affected domestic supply. The overall import scale of PP is not high, and Middle - Eastern sources account for about 17% of the total imports in 2025, with limited Iranian sources. The shipping disruption affects near - term supply. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Polyethylene - The supply of upstream cracking raw materials such as naphtha and propane may be severely tightened due to the shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic cracking has started to reduce the load, and derivatives are stronger in the near - term. In terms of PE imports and exports, Iranian sources accounted for 8.4% of imports in 2025, and the proportion of standard linear products is relatively low at 2.6%. The impact on LD, HD, and LL imports decreases in turn. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Offset Printing Paper - OP production capacity and demand are mainly domestic, and energy price changes have little impact on the industrial chain profit. Considering the relatively low funds in the disk, there is little liquidity premium. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate. The multi - empty intensity rating is 0, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 0 [7]. Synthetic Rubber - In the short - term, cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber is expected to run strongly. From a macro perspective, the short - term geopolitical conflict has intensified, and energy and chemical commodities are expected to have significant valuation premiums. Fundamentally, the explicit inventory of butadiene has decreased, and under the drive of speculative sentiment, the fundamental pressure on the synthetic rubber industrial chain has decreased. Overall, the price of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber is expected to run strongly, and the geopolitical conflict may significantly increase the intraday volatility. The trading logic changes quickly following geopolitical news. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Urea - It is policy - priced, with limited fluctuations and an upward - moving price center. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Container Shipping Index - At the spot level, the actual loading list is differentiated, with greater pressure on the PA alliance and better conditions for other alliances. Shipping companies can only roll the emergency fuel surcharge into FAK, but the adjustment of FAK is chaotic. The disk 04 contract partially prices in the increase in the emergency fuel surcharge. The overall trend is still dominated by geopolitical sentiment. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Caustic Soda - Affected by the Middle - East situation, ethylene and propylene affect downstream chlorine - consuming products, leading to passive production cuts of caustic soda overseas, and the export price of caustic soda has risen significantly. At the same time, there has also been a reduction in the load of ethylene - based PVC in China, affecting caustic soda. However, although the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve, the disk premium is relatively large, and the overseas plant dynamics and Chinese export signing situation need to be continuously tracked. The multi - empty intensity rating is 0, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Polyvinyl Chloride - Affected by the Iranian situation, chlor - alkali production in South Korea and other places has been reduced, and the production capacity of ethylene - based PVC in China has also decreased. In the future, Asian ethylene - based production capacity will face production - cut pressure. However, although the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve and the price has risen, the trading volume of PVC on the disk has not increased significantly. The core of the market lies in the impact time of the Middle - East situation. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. LPG - The export problem in the Middle - East has not been resolved, and the supply - side problem is still expected to impact the market. There is support below PG, and attention should be paid to changes in the cost side. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Propylene - The import of raw material propane is blocked, and PDH plants are expected to shut down centrally. PL is still expected to rise further under the background of rising costs and tightening supply. Attention should be paid to changes in the cost side. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Last week, in addition to the impact of geopolitical events, concerns about future spot arrivals drove the disk to rise. Next week, attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation, crude oil fluctuations, Sino - US economic and trade consultations, and domestic spot sentiment. Risk control is necessary. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [8]. Palm Oil - The trading of the energy attribute of palm oil continues. It is reported that the Indonesian government is considering banning the export of raw palm oil and other resource products. If implemented, it may lead to a trend - like increase in palm oil. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [8]. Soybean Oil - The cost premium of US soybeans and the customs clearance problem of the soybean system are still the current hot topics. With the support of import costs and export profits, soybean oil can follow the upward trend of palm oil and is expected to run strongly in the short - term. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [8]. Rapeseed Oil - The fundamental driving force for the rise of rapeseed oil itself is not strong. It is expected to be mainly affected by the trends of crude oil and palm oil. Palm oil may rise significantly due to the remarks of the Indonesian government, which will drive rapeseed oil to rise, but the expected increase is less than that of palm oil. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [8]. Group 4: Black Metals Iron Ore - It shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. From the perspective of the balance sheet, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is loose. From a marginal perspective, the negotiation has encountered setbacks, more BHP iron ore may be locked, steel mills' maintenance has decreased and they are gradually resuming production, and the US - Iran conflict has increased transportation costs, driving the ore price to rebound. The strategy is to focus on the 5 - 9 positive spread. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [10]. Coking Coal - There is still an upward risk. On one hand, the recent geopolitical risk will amplify the price elasticity of coking coal. In mid - to late March, coal production and exports in Indonesia will also decline due to Ramadan, exacerbating the tightness of the overseas energy market. On the other hand, affected by the rise in energy and chemical prices, the profits of coking plants have improved, and there is an expectation of capacity utilization repair. The replenishment behavior has also intensified the tightness of the spot market for coking coal. The tightening of spot liquidity and the behavior of upstream producers hoarding goods will drive the price to rise. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [10]. Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals Aluminum - Sufficient attention should be paid to the tightness of the overseas spot market. The SMM spot discounts in East and South China are relatively stable. It is reported that some spot - futures arbitrageurs are buying, and the spot - futures positive spread space is acceptable. There is also an expectation of future spot premiums. If the Strait logistics continues to be blocked, the export of Middle - East aluminum ingots and the supply interruption of raw materials will intensify. The upward strength of LME aluminum remains, which will drive the domestic market. In the past week, the disk pricing was hesitant, and aluminum may have been dragged down by the TACO expectation to some extent. While paying attention to long - position opportunities in aluminum, protective positions should also be established. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [11]. Alumina - It follows the energy and chemical sector, and the trading sentiment is upward. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [11].